玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/115.22.9978.3942.26.1714.53N/A市場需求增加所致
2024/105.0518.1543.8537.00.4613.28N/A-
2024/94.288.2620.3831.95-4.1111.531.06-
2024/83.9519.5917.4427.67-7.0310.731.14-
2024/73.30.85-11.5523.72-10.1510.151.2-
2024/63.483.028.3820.62-9.039.991.2-
2024/53.377.3-5.8617.14-11.99.921.21-
2024/43.14-7.58-16.7213.77-13.2610.041.19-
2024/33.4-2.54-25.6810.63-12.1810.631.1-
2024/23.49-6.5-18.97.22-3.9711.421.02-
2024/13.73-11.0815.983.7315.9810.851.08-
2023/124.243.970.2243.9411.110.631.2-
2023/112.92-16.95-26.2739.7512.389.981.28-
2023/103.51-1.12-0.936.8317.2510.431.23-
2023/93.555.622.2133.3219.5610.651.15-
2023/83.36-9.948.829.7722.0310.31.19-
2023/73.7316.4326.6726.423.9610.521.16-
2023/63.21-10.5110.9322.6723.5210.571.2-
2023/53.58-5.0722.0319.4625.8711.941.06-
2023/43.78-17.5346.7315.8826.7712.661.0-
2023/34.586.3430.5612.121.6112.11.07-
2023/24.3133.7356.277.5216.7511.711.1疫情趨緩 業務好轉
2023/13.22-23.16-12.753.22-12.7511.361.14-
2022/124.195.919.0239.55-3.0611.691.22-
2022/113.9611.6215.135.36-4.3210.971.29-
2022/103.541.9815.6231.41-6.3110.111.41-
2022/93.4712.4213.4127.86-8.519.511.58-
2022/83.094.842.2824.39-10.978.931.68-
2022/72.951.972.2221.3-12.618.781.71-
2022/62.89-1.5730.8618.35-14.68.41.94-
2022/52.9414.13-18.9915.46-19.819.021.8-
2022/42.57-26.61-36.1312.52-20.08.831.84-
2022/33.5127.28-21.059.95-14.419.951.54-
2022/22.75-25.33-8.536.44-10.3210.291.49-
2022/13.69-3.98-11.63.69-11.610.971.4-
2021/123.8411.811.2240.822.3110.341.31-
2021/113.4412.1217.8936.9625.019.571.42-
2021/103.060.03-20.4633.5225.799.151.48-
2021/93.061.390.3430.4633.618.971.4-
2021/83.024.791.6127.438.768.111.55-
2021/72.8830.5358.724.3745.358.721.44因去年受疫情影響,故造成該差異。
2021/62.21-39.061.4421.4943.739.861.28-
2021/53.63-10.0171.9619.2850.9312.11.04因去年受疫情影響,故造成該差異。
2021/44.03-9.2996.9715.6646.7811.481.1因去年受疫情影響,故造成該差異。
2021/34.4447.4562.7811.6334.8711.630.75因去年受疫情影響,故造成該差異。
2021/23.01-27.8410.067.1921.9410.980.79-
2021/14.179.9532.244.1732.2410.890.8-
2020/123.830.2220.7333.36-18.5210.560.94-
2020/112.91-24.35-17.6329.56-21.789.821.02-
2020/103.8526.19-0.1726.65-22.219.881.01-
2020/93.052.6814.1522.8-25.017.841.24-
2020/82.9763.67-8.1719.74-28.796.971.4-
2020/71.82-16.55-52.8716.77-31.526.11.6因疫情影響,營收不如預期
2020/62.183.28-40.5414.95-27.536.331.47-
2020/52.113.07-43.0712.77-24.726.881.35-
2020/42.05-25.03-34.8310.67-19.597.511.24-
2020/32.73-0.29-29.368.62-14.878.620.97-
2020/22.74-13.32.675.89-5.949.040.92-
2020/13.160.38-12.323.16-12.320.0N/A-
2019/123.14-11.16-4.3440.941.410.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.732023/13.222022/13.692021/14.172020/13.16
2024/23.492023/24.312022/22.752021/23.012020/22.74
2024/33.42023/34.582022/33.512021/34.442020/32.73
2024/43.142023/43.782022/42.572021/44.032020/42.05
2024/53.372023/53.582022/52.942021/53.632020/52.11
2024/63.482023/63.212022/62.892021/62.212020/62.18
2024/73.32023/73.732022/72.952021/72.882020/71.82
2024/83.952023/83.362022/83.092021/83.022020/82.97
2024/94.282023/93.552022/93.472021/93.062020/93.05
2024/105.052023/103.512022/103.542021/103.062020/103.85
2024/115.22023/112.922022/113.962021/113.442020/112.91
N/AN/A2023/124.22022/124.192021/123.842020/123.8
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.61%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.6532.65109.68
24Q2 (19)0.4928.9516.67
24Q1 (18)0.38-32.1411.76
23Q4 (17)0.5680.65-68.89
23Q3 (16)0.31-26.19-94.3
23Q2 (15)0.4223.53-76.27
23Q1 (14)0.34-81.11-81.01
22Q4 (13)1.8-66.91-2.17
22Q3 (12)5.44207.34423.08
22Q2 (11)1.77-1.12331.71
22Q1 (10)1.79-2.72459.38
21Q4 (9)1.8476.92348.78
21Q3 (8)1.04153.66188.89
21Q2 (7)0.4128.1241.38
21Q1 (6)0.32-21.9514.29
20Q4 (5)0.4113.8957.69
20Q3 (4)0.3624.140.0
20Q2 (3)0.293.570.0
20Q1 (2)0.287.690.0
19Q4 (1)0.260.00.0

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