Bear Market Bottom
Signpost | 1974/1 | 1982/7 | 1987/11 | 1990/10 | 2002/9 | 2009/2 | 2020/3 | Now |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fed starts to stop raising or lowering rates | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | |
Unemployment starts to rise | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ||
AAII more bearish than bullish | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | |||
ERP is 75 basis points above 12-month low | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | |
Two-year Treasury yields fall | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | |
The yield curve is starting to steepen | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ||
SSPY price-earnings ratio + CPI < 20 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | |
PMI Improves | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |