玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.3-6.86-73.395.16-58.041.12N/A因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/90.32-36.07-65.864.85-56.551.071.77因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/80.5102.97-55.074.53-55.691.091.74因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/70.25-26.73-77.134.03-55.771.141.66因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/60.34-39.17-63.643.78-52.891.411.61因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/50.568.02-63.963.45-51.491.81.26因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/40.51-30.12-57.832.89-48.031.921.18因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/30.749.01-54.512.38-45.282.381.06因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/20.67-30.2-57.831.64-39.813.540.72因結束國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收減少
2024/10.97-49.06-14.20.97-14.24.090.62-
2023/121.954.3639.315.422.064.250.68-
2023/111.239.38-8.1413.52-1.633.290.87-
2023/101.1219.48-18.1912.29-0.923.180.91-
2023/90.94-15.85-38.9611.171.223.141.49-
2023/81.123.29-4.7310.237.743.131.5-
2023/71.0816.48-10.19.119.53.551.32-
2023/60.93-39.7-9.988.0312.813.691.5-
2023/51.5426.4160.787.116.684.381.27因國軍服裝供售業務銷量增加,致使營收增加
2023/41.22-24.639.75.568.444.441.25-
2023/31.621.069.194.348.094.341.46-
2023/21.642.0130.712.737.454.091.55-
2023/11.13-17.28-14.221.13-14.223.831.65-
2022/121.361.78-10.5515.1114.234.071.69-
2022/111.34-2.58-20.2613.7517.454.251.62-
2022/101.37-10.851.3412.4123.774.091.68-
2022/91.5431.3595.6411.0427.273.922.31因參與國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收增加
2022/81.17-2.5358.489.4920.443.412.65因參與國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收增加
2022/71.216.6521.568.3216.53.192.83-
2022/61.037.715.167.1215.693.12.64-
2022/50.96-13.752.036.0915.783.552.31-
2022/41.11-24.97-1.745.1318.773.822.15-
2022/31.4820.9751.334.0226.044.021.77因參與國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收增加。
2022/21.22-6.8130.252.5414.854.061.76-
2022/11.31-13.743.441.313.444.511.58-
2021/121.52-9.2668.9513.2324.964.561.33因參與國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收增加
2021/111.6823.8156.6811.720.863.821.59因參與國軍服裝供售業務,致使營收增加
2021/101.3672.0845.9610.0316.412.882.11-
2021/90.796.4-15.198.6712.842.522.13-
2021/80.74-25.24-8.847.8816.692.632.04-
2021/70.9910.59.447.1420.182.821.9-
2021/60.9-4.57-3.976.1522.112.971.39-
2021/50.94-16.9518.375.2628.043.051.35-
2021/41.1315.55130.684.3230.363.051.35因去年同期新冠肺炎疫情影響大額需求減少
2021/30.984.1277.233.1912.943.191.13因去年同期新冠肺炎疫情影響大額需求減少
2021/20.94-25.99-3.492.21-2.693.111.16-
2021/11.2740.87-2.081.27-2.083.241.11-
2020/120.9-15.85-37.2610.58-24.72.90.87-
2020/111.0715.34-25.859.68-23.262.930.86-
2020/100.93-0.02-10.428.61-22.932.670.95-
2020/90.9314.3711.577.68-24.212.651.16-
2020/80.81-10.24-28.416.76-27.412.651.16-
2020/70.9-3.04-22.935.94-27.272.631.17-
2020/60.9317.64-8.595.04-28.02.221.8-
2020/50.7961.83-31.564.11-31.321.842.18-
2020/40.49-11.21-54.743.31-31.262.021.98因新冠肺炎疫情影響
2020/30.55-43.3-42.712.82-24.452.821.62-
2020/20.97-24.91-18.392.27-18.163.711.23-
2020/11.3-9.74-17.881.3-17.884.181.09-
2019/121.44-0.54-1.9714.06-5.950.0N/A-
2019/111.4439.334.9112.62-6.380.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.972023/11.132022/11.312021/11.272020/11.3
2024/20.672023/21.62022/21.222021/20.942020/20.97
2024/30.742023/31.622022/31.482021/30.982020/30.55
2024/40.512023/41.222022/41.112021/41.132020/40.49
2024/50.562023/51.542022/50.962021/50.942020/50.79
2024/60.342023/60.932022/61.032021/60.92020/60.93
2024/70.252023/71.082022/71.22021/70.992020/70.9
2024/80.52023/81.122022/81.172021/80.742020/80.81
2024/90.322023/90.942022/91.542021/90.792020/90.93
2024/100.32023/101.122022/101.372021/101.362020/100.93
N/AN/A2023/111.232022/111.342021/111.682020/111.07
N/AN/A2023/121.92022/121.362021/121.522020/120.9
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.58%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.49-5.77-9.26
24Q2 (19)0.52-35.0-8.77
24Q1 (18)0.80.042.86
23Q4 (17)0.848.1537.93
23Q3 (16)0.54-5.265.88
23Q2 (15)0.571.79-8.06
23Q1 (14)0.56-3.45-11.11
22Q4 (13)0.5813.73-7.94
22Q3 (12)0.51-17.74-26.09
22Q2 (11)0.62-1.59-4.62
22Q1 (10)0.630.05.0
21Q4 (9)0.63-8.721.15
21Q3 (8)0.696.1515.0
21Q2 (7)0.658.3318.18
21Q1 (6)0.615.38-7.69
20Q4 (5)0.52-13.330.0
20Q3 (4)0.69.090.0
20Q2 (3)0.55-15.380.0
20Q1 (2)0.6525.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.520.00.0

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