玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.4-20.6883.4214.9938.274.38N/A本期因終端市場需求提昇,帶動客戶出貨力道, 整體營收較去年同期成長
2024/101.7645.1432.4813.5934.854.95N/A-
2024/91.22-38.2163.3911.8235.225.190.79因奧運年需求增加, 本期出貨較多
2024/81.97-2.1585.9610.6132.65.710.72因奧運年需求增加, 本期出貨較多
2024/72.0115.9767.798.6424.465.130.8因奧運年需求增加, 本期出貨較多
2024/61.7325.22100.116.6315.434.360.74因奧運年需求增加, 本期出貨較多
2024/51.3811.0660.244.90.383.490.921.去年同期基期較底 2.今年海外據點出貨較高
2024/41.2544.7930.713.51-12.492.681.2-
2024/30.8650.52-21.72.27-25.962.271.55-
2024/20.57-31.28-46.451.4-28.362.151.62-
2024/10.8311.0-6.680.83-6.682.341.49-
2023/120.75-1.71-45.5711.59-27.032.841.1-
2023/110.76-42.71-26.9910.84-25.262.841.11-
2023/101.3379.014.7510.08-25.133.131.0-
2023/90.74-29.67-43.188.74-28.893.01.17-
2023/81.06-11.71-2.178.0-27.193.121.13-
2023/71.238.31-15.256.94-29.922.931.2-
2023/60.870.27-43.945.74-32.372.681.6-
2023/50.86-9.39-39.294.88-29.792.921.47-
2023/40.95-13.27-31.584.01-27.343.121.37-
2023/31.12.93-39.353.06-25.913.061.38-
2023/21.0719.7411.021.96-15.43.341.27-
2023/10.89-35.25-34.170.89-34.173.311.28-
2022/121.3831.82-3.0615.882.693.581.58-
2022/111.04-9.95-20.1514.53.273.521.61-
2022/101.16-11.38-28.3813.465.683.551.59-
2022/91.3121.0919.4512.310.643.81.72-
2022/81.08-23.51-4.9610.999.684.041.62-
2022/71.41-8.513.779.9111.564.381.49-
2022/61.558.5729.538.4912.974.361.42-
2022/51.422.11-3.326.959.854.631.34-
2022/41.39-23.1123.175.5213.854.171.49-
2022/31.8188.4326.824.1311.014.131.21-
2022/20.96-28.9925.092.321.143.741.33-
2022/11.36-4.65-10.951.36-10.954.091.22-
2021/121.428.5929.4915.461.174.350.98-
2021/111.31-19.23-0.8314.04-1.014.031.06-
2021/101.6247.80.512.73-1.023.851.1-
2021/91.1-3.66140.1811.11-1.243.61.22係因去年同期訂單量減少
2021/81.14-16.48-36.2810.02-7.223.691.19-
2021/71.3614.28.588.88-1.464.031.09-
2021/61.19-18.9637.247.52-3.093.81.01-
2021/51.4730.130.746.32-8.184.030.95-
2021/41.13-20.8316.64.85-15.793.331.15-
2021/31.4385.85-17.313.72-22.353.721.03-
2021/20.77-49.45-53.032.29-25.23.391.132021年2月較去年同期減少53.04%,主要原因為去年是1月過年,今年是2月過年,工作天數較去年減少
2021/11.5238.656.781.526.783.940.97-
2020/121.1-16.83-12.5815.284.194.030.8-
2020/111.32-18.149.9214.195.763.390.95-
2020/101.61253.2330.2212.875.353.850.83-
2020/90.46-74.44-56.5611.252.553.51.22係因訂單量減少
2020/81.7942.3348.3410.88.813.911.09-
2020/71.2544.34-8.569.013.353.251.31-
2020/60.87-22.8-10.587.765.572.971.66-
2020/51.1316.03-12.416.898.043.831.29-
2020/40.97-43.85-26.325.7613.214.341.13-
2020/31.735.5411.034.7927.014.791.1-
2020/21.6414.93124.033.0638.244.321.221. 2020年增加庫存銷售數 2. 2019年2月過年假期,相較於2020年2月工作天較多
2020/11.4213.49-4.01.42-4.00.0N/A-
2019/121.264.58-11.3114.67-9.680.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.832023/10.892022/11.362021/11.522020/11.42
2024/20.572023/21.072022/20.962021/20.772020/21.64
2024/30.862023/31.12022/31.812021/31.432020/31.73
2024/41.252023/40.952022/41.392021/41.132020/40.97
2024/51.382023/50.862022/51.422021/51.472020/51.13
2024/61.732023/60.872022/61.552021/61.192020/60.87
2024/72.012023/71.22022/71.412021/71.362020/71.25
2024/81.972023/81.062022/81.082021/81.142020/81.79
2024/91.222023/90.742022/91.312021/91.12020/90.46
2024/101.762023/101.332022/101.162021/101.622020/101.61
2024/111.42023/110.762022/111.042021/111.312020/111.32
N/AN/A2023/120.752022/121.382021/121.422020/121.1
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.58%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.4-9.09-14.89
24Q2 (19)0.44-29.03-22.81
24Q1 (18)0.6258.9737.78
23Q4 (17)0.39-17.02-7.14
23Q3 (16)0.47-17.5414.63
23Q2 (15)0.5726.6746.15
23Q1 (14)0.457.14462.5
22Q4 (13)0.422.44133.33
22Q3 (12)0.415.13127.78
22Q2 (11)0.39387.5143.75
22Q1 (10)0.08-55.56-50.0
21Q4 (9)0.180.0157.14
21Q3 (8)0.1812.50
21Q2 (7)0.160.00
21Q1 (6)0.16128.570
20Q4 (5)0.0700

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