玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.74-41.77-42.017.52-41.212.85N/A-
2024/91.2854.21-14.776.77-41.122.624.98-
2024/80.8362.63-21.015.49-45.071.737.52-
2024/70.5129.81-39.424.66-47.891.687.77全球性總體經濟走緩
2024/60.39-49.29-76.774.16-48.772.086.61全球性總體經濟走緩
2024/50.77-15.64-52.553.76-41.42.365.83全球性總體經濟走緩
2024/40.9236.6-42.812.99-37.62.096.58-
2024/30.6733.25-22.162.07-34.982.076.98全球性總體經濟走緩
2024/20.5-43.69-58.71.4-39.742.037.1全球性總體經濟走緩
2024/10.941.13-18.720.9-18.722.196.6-
2023/120.63-3.68-47.1414.08-21.62.585.72全球性總體經濟走緩
2023/110.66-48.66-51.9313.45-19.753.444.28全球性總體經濟走緩
2023/101.28-14.426.9112.78-16.913.833.85-
2023/91.542.928.5911.5-18.923.394.67-
2023/81.0524.72-12.5210.0-21.893.584.42-
2023/70.84-50.22-37.518.95-22.864.163.8-
2023/61.693.57-1.518.11-20.944.933.37-
2023/51.631.670.546.42-24.844.14.05-
2023/41.685.93-16.514.79-30.793.694.51-
2023/30.86-29.3-47.463.19-36.283.195.68-
2023/21.2210.81-23.192.32-30.813.525.13-
2023/11.1-8.21-37.661.1-37.663.674.92-
2022/121.2-12.41-39.3917.96-25.73.774.57-
2022/111.3714.17-36.1416.76-24.483.954.36-
2022/101.2-13.07-52.6715.39-23.233.784.56客戶訂單需求減少
2022/91.3815.11-38.1914.19-18.963.933.81-
2022/81.2-10.89-50.7812.81-16.154.263.51疫情影響客戶訂單需求減少
2022/71.35-21.55-41.2611.61-9.584.683.2-
2022/61.725.74-26.1310.26-2.695.262.48-
2022/51.62-15.57-4.948.543.925.192.51-
2022/41.9217.017.356.926.245.152.53-
2022/31.643.34-12.195.05.825.02.44-
2022/21.59-10.0719.613.3617.645.342.29-
2022/11.77-10.7515.921.7715.925.892.07-
2021/121.98-7.7239.3424.1742.836.661.68-
2021/112.15-15.3815.1622.1943.156.921.62-
2021/102.5413.5380.0220.0446.987.211.55客戶訂單需求增加
2021/92.23-8.33132.3917.5143.176.961.6客戶訂單需求增加
2021/82.446.3439.2915.2735.567.051.58-
2021/72.29-1.34115.9912.8434.876.321.77客戶訂單需求增加
2021/62.3236.0763.0610.5424.695.821.77客戶訂單需求增加
2021/51.71-4.659.868.2216.925.371.92-
2021/41.79-4.3-18.266.5118.924.992.07-
2021/31.8740.840.494.7243.714.722.15-
2021/21.33-12.8468.262.8545.894.272.38客戶訂單需求增加
2021/11.527.2730.751.5230.754.812.11-
2020/121.42-23.73-14.2816.92-2.164.692.17-
2020/111.8632.2714.3815.5-0.874.232.4-
2020/101.4146.56-19.2213.64-2.654.122.47-
2020/90.96-45.05-44.1212.23-0.293.772.63-
2020/81.7564.99.3211.276.854.242.34-
2020/71.06-25.52-34.389.526.414.042.46-
2020/61.42-8.3125.468.4615.425.171.93-
2020/51.55-29.06-9.077.0313.585.081.97-
2020/42.1964.4939.255.4822.224.312.31-
2020/31.3368.6258.793.2913.03.293.56客戶訂單需求增加
2020/20.79-32.27-20.291.96-5.533.613.24-
2020/11.17-29.678.011.178.014.452.63-
2019/121.661.76-1.8317.3-1.520.0N/A-
2019/111.63-6.5999.7315.64-1.490.0N/A訂單需求增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.92023/11.12022/11.772021/11.522020/11.17
2024/20.52023/21.222022/21.592021/21.332020/20.79
2024/30.672023/30.862022/31.642021/31.872020/31.33
2024/40.922023/41.62022/41.922021/41.792020/42.19
2024/50.772023/51.632022/51.622021/51.712020/51.55
2024/60.392023/61.692022/61.722021/62.322020/61.42
2024/70.512023/70.842022/71.352021/72.292020/71.06
2024/80.832023/81.052022/81.22021/82.442020/81.75
2024/91.282023/91.52022/91.382021/92.232020/90.96
2024/100.742023/101.282022/101.22021/102.542020/101.41
N/AN/A2023/110.662022/111.372021/112.152020/111.86
N/AN/A2023/120.632022/121.22021/121.982020/121.42
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 80.26%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)3.85-18.43-40.22
24Q2 (19)4.72-17.34-33.61
24Q1 (18)5.71-5.62-40.08
23Q4 (17)6.05-6.06-39.26
23Q3 (16)6.44-9.42-38.2
23Q2 (15)7.11-25.39-38.65
23Q1 (14)9.53-4.3223.93
22Q4 (13)9.96-4.4180.76
22Q3 (12)10.42-10.09142.33
22Q2 (11)11.5950.72201.04
22Q1 (10)7.6939.56208.84
21Q4 (9)5.5128.14120.4
21Q3 (8)4.311.69154.44
21Q2 (7)3.8554.62375.31
21Q1 (6)2.49-0.435.33
20Q4 (5)2.547.9361.29
20Q3 (4)1.69108.640.0
20Q2 (3)0.81-55.980.0
20Q1 (2)1.8418.710.0
19Q4 (1)1.550.00.0

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