玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.088.2220.7234.2620.8811.64N/A-
2024/93.77-0.5520.8730.1820.911.190.37-
2024/83.794.2819.5626.4120.910.690.38-
2024/73.6311.3120.2222.6221.1310.030.41-
2024/63.264.0418.7818.9921.319.790.35-
2024/53.14-7.324.3215.7221.849.890.35-
2024/43.390.549.1112.5927.178.660.4-
2024/33.3776.7618.869.235.429.20.38-
2024/21.9-51.51-11.095.8347.269.060.38-
2024/13.9321.9115.983.93115.9810.680.32係因去年1月適逢農曆春節假期,基期較低所致。
2023/123.22-8.6211.3535.09-10.6710.130.35-
2023/113.534.412.4731.86-12.4210.020.35-
2023/103.388.35-11.428.34-13.989.660.36-
2023/93.12-1.63-1.9224.96-14.319.310.43-
2023/83.174.86-23.4821.84-15.838.940.45-
2023/73.029.97-24.8918.67-14.388.780.46-
2023/62.75-8.62-24.3915.65-12.08.860.39-
2023/53.01-3.06-10.1912.9-8.828.940.39-
2023/43.19.53119.479.9-8.48.080.43因去年受中國新冠肺炎疫情影響,昆山子公司配合當地政府防疫政策停工,今年則無此情形。
2023/32.8332.21-13.916.79-27.656.790.55-
2023/22.1417.77-7.473.96-35.066.860.55-
2023/11.82-37.15-51.941.82-51.948.150.46因1月適逢農曆春節工作天數較少影響,故1月合併營收較去年同期減少。
2022/122.89-15.91-25.7939.28-18.6610.150.45-
2022/113.44-9.73-17.9236.39-18.0310.430.43-
2022/103.8119.950.6132.94-18.0411.130.41-
2022/93.18-23.25-9.0129.13-19.9811.340.47-
2022/84.142.9212.6425.95-21.1511.80.45-
2022/74.0210.716.6321.81-25.411.010.48-
2022/63.638.541.317.79-31.028.40.63-
2022/53.35136.89-19.0114.15-36.258.050.66-
2022/41.41-57.03-64.8510.8-40.197.020.76受中國新冠肺炎疫情影響,昆山子公司配合當地政府防疫政策停工,致四月合併營收較去年同期減少。
2022/33.2942.1-14.439.39-33.139.390.6-
2022/22.32-38.82-45.496.1-40.1810.00.57-
2022/13.78-2.96-36.393.78-36.3911.880.48-
2021/123.9-6.99-31.1348.290.4311.880.44-
2021/114.1910.66-21.6944.394.6411.480.45-
2021/103.798.47-21.8340.28.4510.960.47-
2021/93.49-4.97-35.036.4113.0110.620.47-
2021/83.686.56-27.2532.9122.6210.710.46-
2021/73.45-3.84-22.7629.2434.211.170.44-
2021/63.59-13.22-3.6925.7948.8911.750.45-
2021/54.132.7826.8722.263.312.00.441~5月累計營收較去年同期增加,因客戶需求增加所致。
2021/44.024.61-1.5318.0774.7912.120.431~4月累計營收較去年同期增加,因客戶需求增加所致。
2021/33.85-9.4642.0314.04124.6814.040.38客戶訂單較去年同期增加,致使公司本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/24.25-28.61303.3710.2187.8315.860.33本月及本年累計營收增加,主要去年同期基期低,且因客戶需求增加所致。
2021/15.955.06138.975.95138.9716.970.31營收較去年同期增加138.97%,主要因去年1月工作天數較少,基期低,且因疫情影響需求增加所致。
2020/125.665.7537.9948.0821.515.870.33-
2020/115.3610.4621.5442.4219.615.580.34-
2020/104.85-9.7926.7537.0619.3215.280.34-
2020/95.376.3444.6232.2218.2814.90.3-
2020/85.0513.1348.2526.8414.1113.250.34-
2020/74.4719.9123.6521.798.3311.450.39-
2020/63.7314.3124.8317.324.9711.070.34-
2020/53.26-20.22-6.1813.590.5910.050.38-
2020/44.0950.8911.6210.342.947.850.48-
2020/32.71157.118.696.25-2.036.250.78-
2020/21.05-57.71-15.023.54-8.917.650.64-
2020/12.49-39.33-6.042.49-6.0411.00.44-
2019/124.1-6.8523.0139.57-6.20.0N/A-
2019/114.4115.24.6435.47-8.710.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.932023/11.822022/13.782021/15.952020/12.49
2024/21.92023/22.142022/22.322021/24.252020/21.05
2024/33.372023/32.832022/33.292021/33.852020/32.71
2024/43.392023/43.12022/41.412021/44.022020/44.09
2024/53.142023/53.012022/53.352021/54.132020/53.26
2024/63.262023/62.752022/63.632021/63.592020/63.73
2024/73.632023/73.022022/74.022021/73.452020/74.47
2024/83.792023/83.172022/84.142021/83.682020/85.05
2024/93.772023/93.122022/93.182021/93.492020/95.37
2024/104.082023/103.382022/103.812021/103.792020/104.85
N/AN/A2023/113.532022/113.442021/114.192020/115.36
N/AN/A2023/123.222022/122.892021/123.92020/125.66
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.44%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.2840.021.74
24Q2 (19)0.20.00.0
24Q1 (18)0.2-31.0311.11
23Q4 (17)0.2926.0945.0
23Q3 (16)0.2315.0-37.84
23Q2 (15)0.211.11-28.57
23Q1 (14)0.18-10.0-47.06
22Q4 (13)0.2-45.95-28.57
22Q3 (12)0.3732.1427.59
22Q2 (11)0.28-17.65-30.0
22Q1 (10)0.3421.43-40.35
21Q4 (9)0.28-3.45-46.15
21Q3 (8)0.29-27.5-46.3
21Q2 (7)0.4-29.820
21Q1 (6)0.579.620
20Q4 (5)0.52-3.70
20Q3 (4)0.5400.0

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