玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.8322.0-15.78.18-25.362.39N/A-
2024/90.68-23.81-41.067.35-26.312.320.92-
2024/80.8917.98-37.536.68-24.392.410.89-
2024/70.75-1.87-22.735.79-21.872.340.91-
2024/60.77-6.54-12.685.03-21.742.360.92-
2024/50.825.85-18.454.27-23.172.550.85-
2024/40.78-18.873.373.45-24.222.560.85-
2024/30.9616.02-33.042.67-29.682.670.81-
2024/20.82-7.3-44.021.71-27.652.480.87-
2024/10.8915.72-0.750.89-0.752.850.75-
2023/120.77-35.71-51.4812.92-7.582.940.78品牌商庫存調節
2023/111.221.99-19.5712.15-1.983.320.69-
2023/100.98-14.69-20.8510.960.413.550.65-
2023/91.15-19.26-4.049.983.133.550.65-
2023/81.4245.9418.498.834.143.280.7-
2023/70.9710.88-30.697.411.782.860.8-
2023/60.88-12.71-18.586.439.562.641.07-
2023/51.0134.18-16.255.5515.93.190.89-
2023/40.75-47.46-35.864.5526.683.650.77-
2023/31.43-2.9839.953.856.933.80.71因遇季節性訂單出貨
2023/21.4764.34138.312.3769.323.950.68因遇季節性訂單出貨
2023/10.9-43.4314.730.914.733.970.68-
2022/121.586.57106.7113.98117.484.310.62因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/111.4920.05271.7312.4118.943.920.68因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/101.243.41356.610.91107.343.630.73因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/91.2-0.29380.719.6793.83.80.64因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/81.2-14.64200.318.4878.743.690.66因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/71.4130.25223.197.2867.553.690.66因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/61.08-10.21114.765.8750.223.450.7因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/51.22.7682.854.7940.73.390.71因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/41.1714.64127.573.5930.612.810.86因遇季節性訂單出貨
2022/31.0265.1921.042.428.252.421.13-
2022/20.62-20.8714.611.40.512.161.26-
2022/10.781.9-8.40.78-8.41.951.4-
2021/120.7791.66-26.286.43-47.181.442.04因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/110.447.46-55.955.66-49.130.923.19因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/100.278.88-66.725.26-48.520.923.19因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/90.25-37.71-77.264.99-46.951.082.58因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/80.4-8.13-65.434.74-42.951.342.09因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/70.44-13.44-58.854.34-39.321.61.76因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/60.5-23.55-33.463.91-35.941.671.19-
2021/50.6627.9-7.93.41-36.292.010.99-
2021/40.51-39.02-19.682.75-40.661.91.05110/3月營收因折讓單金額誤值,故於本月累計營業收入淨額調整
2021/30.8456.42-31.442.23-44.012.230.88因國外新冠疫情嚴重,導致出貨減少
2021/20.54-36.76-63.911.39-49.612.430.81因國外新冠疫情嚴重及春節假期,導致出貨減少
2021/10.85-17.98-32.760.85-32.762.80.7-
2020/121.0414.51-24.012.17-47.092.760.69因國外新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響,導致出貨減少
2020/110.9111.39-35.3811.13-48.552.820.68因國外新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響,導致出貨減少
2020/100.81-25.6-54.910.22-49.463.070.62因國外新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響,導致出貨減少
2020/91.1-5.29-48.699.41-48.933.310.65-
2020/81.169.34-51.128.31-48.962.970.72因國外新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響,導致出貨減少
2020/71.0639.97-42.327.16-48.62.530.85-
2020/60.765.8-46.366.1-49.552.111.22因新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響,導致出貨減少
2020/50.7111.53-63.885.35-49.972.581.0因新冠肺炎疫情嚴重影響,導致出貨減少
2020/40.64-47.94-72.824.63-46.813.360.77受疫情影響,出貨減少
2020/31.23-17.66-47.33.99-37.163.990.7-
2020/21.4917.823.492.76-31.284.130.67-
2020/11.27-7.29-50.771.27-50.774.040.69因中美貿易戰未明、國外及台灣接連年假所致
2019/121.37-2.637.9923.0112.40.0N/A-
2019/111.4-22.25-7.5221.6412.690.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.892023/10.92022/10.782021/10.852020/11.27
2024/20.822023/21.472022/20.622021/20.542020/21.49
2024/30.962023/31.432022/31.022021/30.842020/31.23
2024/40.782023/40.752022/41.172021/40.512020/40.64
2024/50.822023/51.012022/51.22021/50.662020/50.71
2024/60.772023/60.882022/61.082021/60.52020/60.76
2024/70.752023/70.972022/71.412021/70.442020/71.06
2024/80.892023/81.422022/81.22021/80.42020/81.16
2024/90.682023/91.152022/91.22021/90.252020/91.1
2024/100.832023/100.982022/101.242021/100.272020/100.81
N/AN/A2023/111.22022/111.492021/110.42020/110.91
N/AN/A2023/120.772022/121.582021/120.772020/121.04
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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