玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.7322.614582.0935.293149.7414.82N/A營建銷售增加營收
2024/93.85-38.25138.0130.563002.9515.931.41營建銷售增加營收
2024/86.246.766440.4226.712830.5315.131.49營建銷售增加營收
2024/75.8491.176290.5120.472408.6511.012.04營建銷售增加營收
2024/63.0644.863290.6714.631918.97.454.02營建銷售增加營收
2024/52.11-7.771083.4911.571724.046.424.66營建銷售增加營收
2024/42.2912.982179.269.461974.348.993.33營建銷售增加營收
2024/32.02-56.72980.847.181916.497.184.64營建銷售增加營收
2024/24.68887.435000.865.152956.178.673.84營建銷售增加營收
2024/10.47-86.53516.390.47516.395.126.5營建銷售增加營收
2023/123.52211.692366.765.73268.194.757.71營建銷售增加營收
2023/111.131018.36677.012.2156.571.328.08營建銷售增加營收
2023/100.137.17-39.81.09-14.440.27135.62-
2023/90.07-22.83-39.230.98-10.580.26149.3-
2023/80.14.32-8.990.91-7.040.28140.38-
2023/70.091.43-55.120.82-6.810.36108.04因客戶訂單調配問題產生差異
2023/60.09-49.43-13.50.727.820.37102.44-
2023/50.1877.625.940.6311.740.4781.07-
2023/40.1-46.41-12.480.467.020.3899.57-
2023/30.19104.2452.620.3614.20.36104.96因客戶訂單調配問題產生差異
2023/20.0919.3245.00.17-10.750.31120.03-
2023/10.08-46.11-38.820.08-38.820.36102.4-
2022/120.14-1.81-24.451.56-19.330.4681.19-
2022/110.15-13.3515.711.41-18.770.4385.23-
2022/100.1738.4789.621.27-21.450.3994.0客戶排單問題造成
2022/90.1215.5518.651.1-27.880.4384.93-
2022/80.1-48.55-33.550.98-31.210.4188.4-
2022/70.295.4848.730.88-30.920.4581.18-
2022/60.1-26.378.820.67-40.570.3698.71-
2022/50.1423.4138.580.57-45.140.3893.88-
2022/40.11-6.5613.540.43-54.310.3118.33因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2022/30.1294.03-47.740.31-62.540.31109.83因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2022/20.06-49.66-78.910.19-68.360.3890.61因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2022/10.13-33.46-57.710.13-57.710.4477.78因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/120.1950.39-37.291.93-60.70.482.65因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/110.1341.98-80.281.74-62.230.32105.35因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/100.09-13.3476.551.62-59.340.3595.62本月訂單與去年同期比較增加
2021/90.1-35.29-76.991.53-61.070.481.28因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/80.1615.15-80.671.43-59.040.3982.59因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/70.1443.03-51.221.27-52.420.3396.3因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/60.1-6.23-72.941.13-52.560.3104.98因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/50.11.11-59.181.03-49.00.4471.63因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/40.1-56.99-80.360.93-47.570.6449.34因永和合建案已銷售完畢
2021/30.23-21.72-66.90.83-34.240.8337.41因營建收入減少產生差異
2021/20.30.9743.150.67.450.934.65-
2021/10.3-1.33-14.160.3-14.161.2425.2-
2020/120.3-52.71-66.694.91-11.610.9931.65因本月營建銷貨收入減少所致
2020/110.641171.62-33.664.61-0.91.1327.66-
2020/100.05-88.71-79.213.977.61.3123.8810月營建案有過戶但尚未交屋,故無認列營收
2020/90.44-45.6248.093.9213.661.5420.42-
2020/80.82190.5979.473.4810.391.4521.69營建收入增加
2020/70.28-20.65-36.692.66-1.240.8835.56-
2020/60.3541.45-27.812.385.721.1228.64-
2020/50.25-51.36-48.982.0315.041.4721.73-
2020/40.51-27.517.01.7839.691.4322.34-
2020/30.71238.6175.751.2751.651.2725.49增加營建銷貨收入
2020/20.21-39.45-3.160.56-3.691.4622.09-
2020/10.35-61.71-4.00.35-4.02.2114.59-
2019/120.9-5.81239.975.5624.510.0N/A本期增加營建收入
2019/110.96298.46118.894.6510.860.0N/A本期增加營建收入
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.472023/10.082022/10.132021/10.32020/10.35
2024/24.682023/20.092022/20.062021/20.32020/20.21
2024/32.022023/30.192022/30.122021/30.232020/30.71
2024/42.292023/40.12022/40.112021/40.12020/40.51
2024/52.112023/50.182022/50.142021/50.12020/50.25
2024/63.062023/60.092022/60.12021/60.12020/60.35
2024/75.842023/70.092022/70.22021/70.142020/70.28
2024/86.242023/80.12022/80.12021/80.162020/80.82
2024/93.852023/90.072022/90.122021/90.12020/90.44
2024/104.732023/100.12022/100.172021/100.092020/100.05
N/AN/A2023/111.132022/110.152021/110.132020/110.64
N/AN/A2023/123.522022/120.142021/120.192020/120.3
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 42.84%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)5.9-36.83502.04
24Q2 (19)9.34138.270
24Q1 (18)3.9240.50
23Q4 (17)2.79184.690
23Q3 (16)0.9800

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