玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/104.01-27.8-2.2670.23-4.1212.93N/A-
2024/95.5665.325.9666.21-4.2315.761.32-
2024/83.36-50.8221.0960.65-5.0720.851.0-
2024/76.84-35.794.3857.29-6.2629.420.71-
2024/610.65-10.79-13.7850.46-7.5433.090.63-
2024/511.9413.67-7.1139.81-5.7130.680.68-
2024/410.527.38-3.7427.87-5.122.460.93-
2024/38.24121.92-10.6217.37-5.9117.371.29-
2024/23.71-31.29-24.789.12-1.2114.361.57-
2024/15.413.2425.95.4125.916.171.39-
2023/125.24-5.285.1884.02-8.8814.871.45-
2023/115.5334.6625.178.78-9.6814.881.45-
2023/104.11-21.72-15.9473.25-11.5412.131.78-
2023/95.2588.93-28.569.14-11.2614.571.32-
2023/82.78-57.6-44.4863.9-9.4721.680.89-
2023/76.55-46.97-8.1161.12-6.831.750.61-
2023/612.35-3.89-11.9554.57-6.6436.110.54-
2023/512.8517.8-2.9942.22-4.9732.990.59-
2023/410.9118.26-8.2329.37-5.825.070.78-
2023/39.2286.76-8.5218.46-4.3118.461.38-
2023/24.9415.0156.519.230.2814.211.79去年受農曆春節及疫情影響銷售下滑
2023/14.29-13.75-29.034.29-29.0313.691.86-
2022/124.9812.650.5192.21-9.2114.281.52-
2022/114.42-9.52-14.087.23-9.7116.641.31-
2022/104.88-33.42-29.3682.81-9.4717.221.26-
2022/97.3446.69-12.577.93-7.8419.470.94-
2022/85.0-29.822.5770.59-7.3226.160.7-
2022/77.13-49.19-0.6665.59-8.034.410.53-
2022/614.035.884.2158.46-8.8239.170.55-
2022/513.2511.45-3.6544.43-12.2935.220.61-
2022/411.8917.883.6431.18-15.5125.130.85-
2022/310.08219.53-25.7119.29-24.1519.291.5-
2022/23.16-47.84-18.09.21-22.3614.162.04-
2022/16.0522.16-24.466.05-24.4616.141.79-
2021/124.95-3.61-39.51101.5710.317.011.59-
2021/115.14-25.6818.4896.6115.1720.441.32-
2021/106.92-17.537.1691.4714.9920.181.34-
2021/98.3971.9829.8684.5615.6820.441.13-
2021/84.88-32.0418.0476.1714.3125.510.9-
2021/77.18-46.692.5371.2914.0634.390.67-
2021/613.46-2.12-2.1164.1215.5138.680.57-
2021/513.7519.891.6250.6621.3238.80.57-
2021/411.47-15.513.5136.9130.7628.890.77-
2021/313.58252.7226.9125.4440.3825.440.89-
2021/23.85-51.9526.0111.8659.8120.051.132020年1-2月累計數受新冠肺炎疫情影響延後開工銷售額下滑
2021/18.01-2.1883.448.0183.4420.541.112020年受農曆春節影響,僅有半個月銷售出貨時間,
2020/128.1988.849.6292.07-9.2218.981.12-
2020/114.34-32.78-32.6183.88-12.5717.251.23-
2020/106.45-0.06-14.2679.55-11.1317.041.25-
2020/96.4656.33-23.9273.09-10.8517.591.02-
2020/84.13-40.97-21.0266.64-9.3424.880.72-
2020/77.0-49.140.7162.5-8.4434.280.52-
2020/613.751.6124.3955.51-12.337.390.45-
2020/513.5333.92-3.7641.76-20.0734.330.49-
2020/410.1-5.54-27.7428.22-26.0823.860.7-
2020/310.7250.23-8.6318.12-25.1118.121.05-
2020/23.05-30.05-40.577.42-40.5712.891.48-
2020/14.37-20.21-40.574.37-40.5716.281.17-
2019/125.47-14.96-28.29101.43-4.440.0N/A-
2019/116.44-14.4921.3695.95-2.60.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/15.412023/14.292022/16.052021/18.012020/14.37
2024/23.712023/24.942022/23.162021/23.852020/23.05
2024/38.242023/39.222022/310.082021/313.582020/310.7
2024/410.52023/410.912022/411.892021/411.472020/410.1
2024/511.942023/512.852022/513.252021/513.752020/513.53
2024/610.652023/612.352022/614.032021/613.462020/613.75
2024/76.842023/76.552022/77.132021/77.182020/77.0
2024/83.362023/82.782022/85.02021/84.882020/84.13
2024/95.562023/95.252022/97.342021/98.392020/96.46
2024/104.012023/104.112022/104.882021/106.922020/106.45
N/AN/A2023/115.532022/114.422021/115.142020/114.34
N/AN/A2023/125.242022/124.982021/124.952020/128.19
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 10.15%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.520.66-15.08
24Q2 (19)1.51-42.8-12.21
24Q1 (18)2.64-14.5657.14
23Q4 (17)3.0972.63-15.57
23Q3 (16)1.794.0745.53
23Q2 (15)1.722.381.18
23Q1 (14)1.68-54.10.6
22Q4 (13)3.66197.5644.66
22Q3 (12)1.23-27.65-10.22
22Q2 (11)1.71.8-13.27
22Q1 (10)1.67-33.99-6.7
21Q4 (9)2.5384.67-18.12
21Q3 (8)1.37-30.1-12.18
21Q2 (7)1.969.526.45
21Q1 (6)1.79-42.07-3.76
20Q4 (5)3.0998.0839.82
20Q3 (4)1.560.650.0
20Q2 (3)1.55-16.670.0
20Q1 (2)1.86-15.840.0
19Q4 (1)2.210.00.0

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