玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1121.4-1.5111.92223.29-2.064.77N/A-
2024/1021.730.418.65201.89-3.2863.79N/A-
2024/921.646.010.13180.16-4.5563.261.21-
2024/820.41-3.76-5.08158.52-5.1562.651.22-
2024/721.210.89-5.56138.1-5.1662.841.22-
2024/621.022.04-5.18116.89-5.0961.831.17-
2024/520.61.98-6.9895.87-5.0760.821.18-
2024/420.20.94-6.0775.27-4.5457.261.26-
2024/320.0117.43-12.2355.06-3.9655.061.33-
2024/217.04-5.36-15.0535.051.4953.521.37-
2024/118.01-2.4824.4218.0124.4255.61.32-
2023/1218.47-3.4110.0246.34-15.9657.591.3-
2023/1119.12-4.46.06227.87-17.5460.731.23-
2023/1020.0-7.45-5.22208.75-19.1963.121.19-
2023/921.610.49-13.94188.75-20.4365.581.25-
2023/821.51-4.24-18.16167.14-21.266.141.24-
2023/722.461.29-19.25145.63-21.6366.781.23-
2023/622.170.1-19.29123.17-22.0565.831.3-
2023/522.152.98-19.31101.0-22.6366.471.29-
2023/421.51-5.7-21.5778.85-23.5164.381.33-
2023/322.8113.69-15.8757.34-24.2157.341.52-
2023/220.0638.61-18.2334.54-28.8651.341.7-
2023/114.47-13.87-39.7314.47-39.7349.311.77-
2022/1216.81-6.78-16.88293.167.5255.941.6-
2022/1118.03-14.57-20.3276.369.4764.251.39-
2022/1021.1-15.96-12.46258.3312.4172.51.23-
2022/925.11-4.430.43237.2315.3279.211.14-
2022/826.28-5.523.9212.1117.3881.611.11-
2022/727.811.111.23185.8319.5782.781.09-
2022/627.510.2212.6158.0521.282.391.09-
2022/527.450.0815.87130.5423.1982.01.1-
2022/427.431.1322.64103.0925.2979.081.14-
2022/327.1210.5225.5575.6726.2975.671.14-
2022/224.542.1731.4948.5526.7168.771.26-
2022/124.0118.7622.1724.0122.1766.861.29-
2021/1220.22-10.61-5.02272.6528.266.951.24-
2021/1122.62-6.1610.62252.4331.971.741.16-
2021/1024.11-3.5821.94229.8134.4474.41.12-
2021/925.0-1.1324.3205.736.0875.31.0-
2021/825.291.1438.97180.737.8974.731.01-
2021/725.012.3422.46155.437.7173.131.03-
2021/624.433.1320.93130.441.0870.490.98-
2021/523.695.9327.27105.9746.7267.661.03-
2021/422.363.528.0182.2853.4762.631.11主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致。
2021/321.615.7859.2159.9265.7959.921.07主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致。
2021/218.66-5.0753.238.3269.7559.561.08主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致。
2021/119.66-7.4789.1419.6689.1461.351.04主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致。
2020/1221.243.8859.92212.625.261.461.01主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致。
2020/1120.453.4359.93191.381.3560.31.03主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致
2020/1019.77-1.5340.5170.93-2.8958.051.07-
2020/920.0810.3346.22151.12-6.6858.71.14-
2020/818.2-10.8715.73131.04-11.5958.731.14-
2020/720.421.52-3.5112.85-14.8359.141.13-
2020/620.118.04-3.4892.34-17.0656.191.24-
2020/518.616.55-8.9772.22-20.1949.721.41-
2020/417.4728.06-10.7453.61-23.4743.291.61-
2020/313.6411.99-27.4136.21-28.2636.212.08-
2020/212.1817.19-18.8722.57-28.7635.82.1-
2020/110.39-21.45-37.6710.39-37.670.0N/A-
2019/1213.233.48-22.01202.05-31.120.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/118.012023/114.472022/124.012021/119.662020/110.39
2024/217.042023/220.062022/224.542021/218.662020/212.18
2024/320.012023/322.812022/327.122021/321.62020/313.64
2024/420.22023/421.512022/427.432021/422.362020/417.47
2024/520.62023/522.152022/527.452021/523.692020/518.61
2024/621.022023/622.172022/627.512021/624.432020/620.11
2024/721.212023/722.462022/727.812021/725.012020/720.42
2024/820.412023/821.512022/826.282021/825.292020/818.2
2024/921.642023/921.612022/925.112021/925.02020/920.08
2024/1021.732023/1020.02022/1021.12021/1024.112020/1019.77
2024/1121.42023/1119.122022/1118.032021/1122.622020/1120.45
N/AN/A2023/1218.472022/1216.812021/1220.222020/1221.24
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.59%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.27-20.62-30.22
24Q2 (19)1.615.1122.14
24Q1 (18)1.391.46-5.44
23Q4 (17)1.37-24.73-11.04
23Q3 (16)1.8238.9313.75
23Q2 (15)1.31-10.88-48.22
23Q1 (14)1.47-4.55-25.0
22Q4 (13)1.54-3.75-10.98
22Q3 (12)1.6-36.7615.11
22Q2 (11)2.5329.08158.16
22Q1 (10)1.9613.2983.18
21Q4 (9)1.7324.4669.61
21Q3 (8)1.3941.8411.2
21Q2 (7)0.98-8.41-26.87
21Q1 (6)1.074.9-35.54
20Q4 (5)1.02-18.4-15.0
20Q3 (4)1.25-6.720.0
20Q2 (3)1.34-19.280.0
20Q1 (2)1.6638.330.0
19Q4 (1)1.20.00.0

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