玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/103.25-12.24-10.2433.483.4610.68N/A-
2024/93.7-0.58-2.1730.235.1811.310.63-
2024/83.73-3.932.3626.526.311.230.63-
2024/73.887.0714.9522.86.9811.220.63-
2024/63.62-2.5929.8918.925.4810.780.77-
2024/53.728.022.4515.30.9810.40.8-
2024/43.446.3116.1411.58-4.398.510.97-
2024/33.2477.44-12.298.14-11.058.140.96-
2024/21.83-40.59-42.254.9-10.217.950.99-
2024/13.070.733.923.0733.929.930.79-
2023/123.05-19.77-23.9339.21-18.1110.470.64-
2023/113.85.01-2.7836.16-17.5811.210.6-
2023/103.62-4.351.4332.36-19.0311.050.61-
2023/93.794.02-0.9128.74-21.0410.80.65-
2023/83.647.87-5.7224.95-23.49.80.71-
2023/73.3720.99-19.6921.31-25.779.20.76-
2023/62.79-8.17-40.3117.94-26.828.790.66-
2023/53.042.44-25.7815.15-23.649.690.6-
2023/42.96-19.71-28.7912.11-23.089.820.59-
2023/33.6916.83-11.839.15-21.039.150.74-
2023/23.1637.779.175.45-26.249.470.72-
2023/12.29-42.8-49.032.29-49.0310.220.66-
2022/124.012.53-19.0947.89-2.7211.490.64-
2022/113.919.57-18.0943.88-0.8911.30.65-
2022/103.57-6.56-10.5939.961.1811.250.66-
2022/93.82-1.02-0.9836.392.511.880.77-
2022/83.86-8.11-7.3332.572.9312.730.72-
2022/74.2-10.066.7628.714.4912.970.7-
2022/64.6714.1614.4524.514.1112.930.86-
2022/54.09-1.71-2.5419.841.9412.440.9-
2022/44.16-0.59-7.3315.753.1711.250.99-
2022/34.1944.6716.6511.587.5611.581.08-
2022/22.89-35.682.547.43.0212.351.01-
2022/14.5-9.213.324.53.3214.230.88-
2021/124.963.8112.7949.238.6813.730.82-
2021/114.7819.616.4344.278.2412.630.89-
2021/103.993.47-1.7939.57.3312.020.93-
2021/93.86-7.38-9.7235.58.4611.960.92-
2021/84.175.863.0231.6411.212.180.9-
2021/73.94-3.58-11.1627.4812.5512.220.9-
2021/64.08-2.78-1.8523.5417.8112.770.8-
2021/54.2-6.55-9.019.4622.9812.280.84-
2021/44.4925.136.8315.2636.1510.910.94-
2021/33.5927.1717.0510.7753.7510.771.0主係美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎影響趨緩,市場需求逐漸恢復正常所致。
2021/22.82-35.19128.287.1882.3311.570.93本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係因客戶需求提升及去年受疫情影響復工及營業天數較少,比較基期過低,所以成長幅度比較大。
2021/14.36-0.8861.294.3661.2912.850.841.去年適逢農曆年,工作天期較少,基值較低 2.因應客戶農曆年前的提升備貨量及市場需求,致營收較去年成長61.30%
2020/124.47.1517.6745.29-3.8212.560.72-
2020/114.10.87-4.3740.9-5.6712.440.73-
2020/104.07-4.870.6436.8-5.8112.380.73-
2020/94.275.69-5.9632.73-6.5612.750.61-
2020/84.04-8.7-8.4428.46-6.6412.630.62-
2020/74.436.528.6924.41-6.3413.20.59-
2020/64.16-9.87-1.5819.98-9.0113.040.52-
2020/54.618.078.0315.82-10.7811.890.57-
2020/44.2742.1517.1911.21-16.758.510.8-
2020/33.0142.85-23.966.94-29.346.940.95-
2020/21.24-54.21-40.73.94-32.967.670.86-
2020/12.7-27.65-28.72.7-28.710.720.61-
2019/123.73-12.97-6.5847.095.070.0N/A-
2019/114.296.168.0143.366.210.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.072023/12.292022/14.52021/14.362020/12.7
2024/21.832023/23.162022/22.892021/22.822020/21.24
2024/33.242023/33.692022/34.192021/33.592020/33.0
2024/43.442023/42.962022/44.162021/44.492020/44.27
2024/53.722023/53.042022/54.092021/54.22020/54.61
2024/63.622023/62.792022/64.672021/64.082020/64.16
2024/73.882023/73.372022/74.22021/73.942020/74.43
2024/83.732023/83.642022/83.862021/84.172020/84.04
2024/93.72023/93.792022/93.822021/93.862020/94.27
2024/103.252023/103.622022/103.572021/103.992020/104.07
N/AN/A2023/113.82022/113.912021/114.782020/114.1
N/AN/A2023/123.052022/124.012021/124.962020/124.4
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 32.5%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)4.889660.031.89
24Q2 (19)0.05-98.9466.67
24Q1 (18)4.736.0561.99
23Q4 (17)4.4620.5456.49
23Q3 (16)3.712233.3341.76
23Q2 (15)0.03-98.97-98.17
23Q1 (14)2.922.4676.97
22Q4 (13)2.859.2213.19
22Q3 (12)2.6159.156425.0
22Q2 (11)1.64-0.610
22Q1 (10)1.6581.320
21Q4 (9)0.912175.00
21Q3 (8)0.0400

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