玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.48-13.995.425.0735.181.52N/A-
2024/90.5614.875.94.5939.291.60.49-
2024/80.49-12.1911.544.0345.651.570.5-
2024/70.553.3948.83.5452.021.680.47客戶需求增加
2024/60.53-9.8141.362.9952.631.590.41客戶需求增加
2024/50.5928.351.212.4655.331.530.42客戶需求增加
2024/40.46-3.3760.471.8656.681.40.46客戶需求增加
2024/30.483.0251.121.455.471.40.44客戶需求增加
2024/20.461.2640.380.9257.831.360.45客戶需求增加
2024/10.464.2280.560.4680.561.340.46客戶需求增加
2023/120.440.73105.534.623.291.330.44客戶需求增加
2023/110.44-4.029.654.18-1.831.420.41-
2023/100.45-13.615.23.75-4.531.420.41-
2023/90.5320.9924.953.29-5.741.330.43-
2023/80.4417.1314.042.77-9.951.190.48-
2023/70.37-1.7713.782.33-13.351.140.5-
2023/60.38-3.539.261.96-17.11.060.47-
2023/50.3936.165.821.58-21.621.00.5-
2023/40.29-9.0-33.061.19-27.80.940.53-
2023/30.32-4.3-34.580.9-25.940.90.7-
2023/20.3330.2513.010.58-20.240.80.79-
2023/10.2518.63-42.340.25-42.340.80.78-
2022/120.21-36.46-54.04.48-4.070.980.56客戶庫存調整
2022/110.34-22.13.874.261.441.190.46-
2022/100.432.611.673.931.241.240.45-
2022/90.4210.4310.53.490.081.130.4-
2022/80.3816.86-9.343.07-1.181.050.43-
2022/70.33-5.681.392.690.081.040.43-
2022/60.35-6.56-4.282.36-0.091.150.0-
2022/50.37-13.87-14.882.020.661.280.0-
2022/40.43-11.07-2.621.654.981.210.0-
2022/30.4865.3313.01.227.961.220.67-
2022/20.29-33.55-8.370.734.871.20.68-
2022/10.44-5.3416.010.4416.011.230.66-
2021/120.4743.4831.814.6712.981.180.73-
2021/110.32-16.25-11.374.211.221.090.79-
2021/100.391.52-1.33.8813.641.190.72-
2021/90.38-9.43.773.4915.581.120.8-
2021/80.4230.723.523.1117.221.10.81-
2021/70.32-10.96-1.672.6916.291.120.8-
2021/60.36-16.916.592.3719.261.240.61-
2021/50.44-1.4720.252.019.751.310.57-
2021/40.443.19101.381.5719.611.190.63109年4月受疫情影響,需求延後所致。
2021/30.4334.0535.811.133.191.130.55-
2021/20.32-15.86-22.570.7-10.041.050.59-
2021/10.387.534.150.384.151.10.56-
2020/120.35-3.52-9.114.13-23.41.110.42-
2020/110.37-6.74-20.753.78-24.511.130.42-
2020/100.396.76-25.683.41-24.891.10.43-
2020/90.377.83-7.783.02-24.781.040.55-
2020/80.344.04-16.112.65-26.660.980.58-
2020/70.335.57-20.322.31-27.991.00.57-
2020/60.31-14.3-30.181.98-29.120.890.84-
2020/50.3665.0-15.471.67-28.920.90.84-
2020/40.22-30.4-58.941.31-31.910.950.79受新冠疫情影響,延後出貨所致。
2020/30.32-23.58-33.661.09-21.531.090.57-
2020/20.4113.1911.110.78-15.251.170.53-
2020/10.36-6.15-33.190.36-33.191.210.51-
2019/120.39-15.88-7.95.39-5.220.0N/A-
2019/110.46-12.54-6.755.01-5.010.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.462023/10.252022/10.442021/10.382020/10.36
2024/20.462023/20.332022/20.292021/20.322020/20.41
2024/30.482023/30.322022/30.482021/30.432020/30.32
2024/40.462023/40.292022/40.432021/40.442020/40.22
2024/50.592023/50.392022/50.372021/50.442020/50.36
2024/60.532023/60.382022/60.352021/60.362020/60.31
2024/70.552023/70.372022/70.332021/70.322020/70.33
2024/80.492023/80.442022/80.382021/80.422020/80.34
2024/90.562023/90.532022/90.422021/90.382020/90.37
2024/100.482023/100.452022/100.432021/100.392020/100.39
N/AN/A2023/110.442022/110.342021/110.322020/110.37
N/AN/A2023/120.442022/120.212021/120.472020/120.35
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.41%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.05150.0400.0
24Q2 (19)0.02-66.67-50.0
24Q1 (18)0.060.0100.0
23Q4 (17)0.06500.0100.0
23Q3 (16)0.01-75.0-80.0
23Q2 (15)0.0433.330
23Q1 (14)0.030.0-62.5
22Q4 (13)0.03-40.0-62.5
22Q3 (12)0.050-37.5

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