玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.56-7.6443.2114.4629.614.56N/A-
2024/101.6827.2378.9412.928.154.51N/A既有產品銷貨成長
2024/91.32-12.0340.6311.2222.914.191.47-
2024/81.510.252.249.920.874.021.53去年同期中間體PGA因受原料品質影響無法出貨,今年已恢復正常出貨。
2024/71.3718.44110.238.3916.573.671.68去年同期中間體PGA因受原料品質影響無法出貨,今年已恢復正常出貨。
2024/61.15-0.03104.867.037.283.931.62去年同期中間體PGA因受原料品質影響無法出貨,今年已恢復正常出貨。
2024/51.15-28.9-11.895.87-1.884.21.51-
2024/41.6213.4128.714.720.913.791.67-
2024/31.4393.21-0.253.1-9.333.11.94-
2024/20.74-20.33-31.251.67-15.892.562.35-
2024/10.934.682.310.932.312.92.07-
2023/120.89-18.280.1612.0433.832.911.82-
2023/111.0915.3978.6811.1537.512.971.79產能較去年同期增加
2023/100.940.023.1410.0734.172.871.85-
2023/90.94-4.76-27.669.1335.422.582.01-
2023/80.9952.17-20.858.1950.512.22.36今年上半年產能較去年同期增加,產能逐漸恢復推升累計營收表現。
2023/70.6515.4130.787.271.782.522.06今年上半年產能較去年同期增加,產能逐漸恢復推升累計營收表現。
2023/60.56-57.01-7.656.5577.293.131.56今年上半年產能較去年同期增加,產能逐漸恢復推升累計營收表現。
2023/51.313.8780.765.9994.074.01.22產能較去年同期增加,產能逐漸恢復推升營收表現。
2023/41.26-12.11162.234.6898.153.771.29產能較去年同期增加,產能逐漸恢復推升營收表現。
2023/31.4333.1646.813.4281.773.421.52今年第一季產能較去年同期增加,產能逐漸恢復推升營收表現。
2023/21.0818.57299.291.98119.542.871.82產能較去年同期增加
2023/10.912.4843.140.9143.142.42.17-
2022/120.8945.77124.769.04.112.262.27產能較去年同期增加
2022/110.61-20.4624.628.11-1.652.671.92-
2022/100.76-41.2660.567.5-3.33.311.55產能陸續恢復
2022/91.34.285.896.74-7.473.051.41產能陸續恢復
2022/81.25151.4591.035.44-17.42.351.82產能陸續恢復中
2022/70.5-18.5-46.564.19-29.351.832.34-
2022/60.61-15.84-2.123.69-26.151.812.55-
2022/50.7250.696.813.08-29.562.182.12-
2022/40.48-50.793.22.36-36.221.732.68-
2022/30.98262.1824.181.88-41.91.881.85-
2022/20.27-57.49-77.140.9-63.11.32.68因火災影響產線,租賃廠房產能貢獻有限
2022/10.6360.92-50.080.63-50.081.522.3因火災影響產線,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/120.39-19.17-49.798.64-67.861.362.17因火災影響產線,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/110.492.46-77.258.25-68.41.661.77因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/100.48-31.99-76.87.76-67.611.831.61因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/90.77.08-63.187.28-66.752.281.15因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/80.65-29.66-67.46.58-67.092.211.19因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/70.9349.28-67.765.93-67.052.231.18因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/60.62-8.16-63.215.0-66.921.771.42因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/50.6845.59-76.144.38-67.391.931.3因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/40.47-40.79-83.043.7-65.042.431.03因火災影響產線,目前廠內產能為0,租賃廠房產能貢獻仍有限
2021/30.79-33.32-67.723.24-58.733.240.77因火災影響產線,目前產能為0
2021/21.18-7.18-50.312.45-54.693.230.77因火災影響產線,目前產能為0
2021/11.2761.87-58.111.27-58.114.20.59因火災影響產線,目前產能為0
2020/120.78-63.39-46.5126.8914.154.980.76-1.586.34-
2020/112.144.4810.9326.1118.186.10.620.717.92-
2020/102.057.9614.0723.9618.885.960.640.57.22-
2020/91.9-5.2-5.9321.9119.356.790.70.416.72-
2020/82.01-30.43-4.3920.0122.486.580.720.566.31-
2020/72.8870.3233.4418.026.447.420.641.045.75-
2020/61.69-40.42-10.5615.1225.187.280.720.54.71-
2020/52.843.4533.2713.4331.838.020.651.164.21-
2020/42.7512.7336.0110.5931.447.560.690.833.05-
2020/32.442.6237.877.8429.927.840.540.572.22-
2020/22.37-21.758.545.4126.636.880.620.71.66-
2020/13.03106.6845.623.0345.620.0N/A0.960.96-
2019/121.47-24.0610.7423.5621.430.0N/A0.245.95-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.932023/10.912022/10.632021/11.272020/13.03
2024/20.742023/21.082022/20.272021/21.182020/22.37
2024/31.432023/31.432022/30.982021/30.792020/32.44
2024/41.622023/41.262022/40.482021/40.472020/42.75
2024/51.152023/51.312022/50.722021/50.682020/52.84
2024/61.152023/60.562022/60.612021/60.622020/61.69
2024/71.372023/70.652022/70.52021/70.932020/72.88
2024/81.52023/80.992022/81.252021/80.652020/82.01
2024/91.322023/90.942022/91.32021/90.72020/91.9
2024/101.682023/100.942022/100.762021/100.482020/102.05
2024/111.562023/111.092022/110.612021/110.492020/112.14
N/AN/A2023/120.892022/120.892021/120.392020/120.78
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.52%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.5445.9568.75
24Q2 (19)0.370.019.35
24Q1 (18)0.37-2.6319.35
23Q4 (17)0.3818.7518.75
23Q3 (16)0.323.230.0
23Q2 (15)0.310.0-6.06
23Q1 (14)0.31-3.12-13.89
22Q4 (13)0.320.0-23.81
22Q3 (12)0.32-3.03-23.81
22Q2 (11)0.33-8.33-17.5
22Q1 (10)0.36-14.29-41.94
21Q4 (9)0.420.0-56.7
21Q3 (8)0.425.0-40.0
21Q2 (7)0.4-35.48-29.82
21Q1 (6)0.62-36.080.0
20Q4 (5)0.9738.5764.41
20Q3 (4)0.722.810.0
20Q2 (3)0.57-8.060.0
20Q1 (2)0.625.080.0
19Q4 (1)0.590.00.0

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