玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.423.19-9.0623.921.517.36N/A-
2024/92.35-9.04-1.9621.492.867.480.39-
2024/82.581.332.0819.143.497.40.39-
2024/72.5512.0710.9616.563.717.350.4-
2024/62.27-10.11-1.1414.012.57.120.43-
2024/52.539.0711.5211.743.237.230.43-
2024/42.32-2.779.089.211.176.470.48-
2024/32.3935.11-9.086.89-1.236.890.49-
2024/21.77-35.54-25.064.53.486.670.5-
2024/12.7426.4637.172.7437.177.780.43-
2023/122.17-24.68-16.1928.6-9.087.710.51-
2023/112.887.873.8126.43-8.447.940.49-
2023/102.6711.25-1.9423.56-9.747.590.51-
2023/92.4-5.28-16.120.89-10.657.220.56-
2023/82.5310.14-11.218.5-9.897.130.57-
2023/72.3-0.15-3.9315.97-9.686.870.59-
2023/62.31.42.613.67-10.586.690.6-
2023/52.276.69-16.711.37-12.847.020.57-
2023/42.13-18.96-15.859.1-11.827.110.56-
2023/32.6211.374.346.98-10.526.980.63-
2023/22.3617.984.914.35-17.66.940.64-
2023/12.0-22.73-34.252.0-34.257.350.6-
2022/122.58-6.690.9731.4613.698.070.58-
2022/112.771.8818.1928.8714.998.340.56-
2022/102.72-4.829.3826.114.668.420.56-
2022/92.860.2461.0123.3813.168.10.55越南地區去年同期因COVID-19減少出貨, 今年除原訂單回復加上汽機車座椅及碟煞盤 訂單增加所致。
2022/82.8519.1637.4120.538.677.480.6-
2022/72.396.64-2.1717.685.137.360.61-
2022/62.24-17.68-6.9515.296.367.490.62-
2022/52.727.7820.8813.059.057.760.6-
2022/42.530.4815.3410.326.317.290.64-
2022/32.5111.97-8.647.83.677.80.55-
2022/22.25-26.0618.715.2810.797.840.55-
2022/13.0418.665.583.045.587.940.54-
2021/122.569.212.0927.6731.07.00.65-
2021/112.3411.5118.8325.1134.896.220.73-
2021/102.118.4717.9122.7736.795.950.77-
2021/91.77-14.45-19.6720.6639.066.290.64-
2021/82.07-15.164.4518.8949.316.930.58-
2021/72.441.4334.5716.8257.657.110.57去年因嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19)造成越南地區及外銷歐美客戶訂單減少出貨,致今年較去年同期營收成長。
2021/62.416.9478.4614.3762.396.850.52去年6月因嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19)造成越南地區及外銷歐美客戶訂單減少出貨,致本月較去年同期營收成長。
2021/52.252.8473.2411.9659.57.20.49去年5月因嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19)造成越南地區及歐美客戶外銷訂單減少出貨,致本月較去年同期營收成長。
2021/42.19-20.41148.499.7156.626.830.52去年4月因嚴重特殊傳染性肺炎(COVID-19)造成越南地區當地停工及歐美客戶外銷訂單延後出貨,致本月較去年同期營收成長。
2021/32.7545.544.347.5241.397.520.42-
2021/21.89-34.2410.354.7739.757.270.44-
2021/12.8814.7469.432.8869.437.360.43去年春節為1月減少約1週工作天致較去年同期出貨增加、GSKVN本期新增4輪座椅量產及至興本期新增重機加工生產線量產致營收增加。
2020/122.5127.1225.5521.12-9.886.260.5-
2020/111.9710.651.1718.61-13.185.960.52-
2020/101.78-19.29-16.816.64-14.625.970.52-
2020/92.2111.248.6514.86-14.356.010.47-
2020/81.989.29-0.3312.65-17.45.150.55-
2020/71.8234.51-14.7810.67-19.954.470.64-
2020/61.353.81-26.928.85-20.933.530.98-
2020/51.347.52-31.047.5-19.754.090.85-
2020/40.88-53.77-54.656.2-16.94.50.77因疫情影響,造成子公司當地及外銷訂單延後交貨,致營收大幅減少。與去年同期比較台灣-41.07%,越南-76.48%,大陸-35.46%。
2020/31.9111.24-6.095.32-3.65.320.64-
2020/21.710.9632.343.41-2.155.410.63-
2020/11.7-14.96-22.531.7-22.535.640.6-
2019/122.02.433.3223.44-18.810.0N/A-
2019/111.95-9.0-2.4621.44-20.40.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.742023/12.02022/13.042021/12.882020/11.7
2024/21.772023/22.362022/22.252021/21.892020/21.71
2024/32.392023/32.622022/32.512021/32.752020/31.91
2024/42.322023/42.132022/42.532021/42.192020/40.88
2024/52.532023/52.272022/52.722021/52.252020/51.3
2024/62.272023/62.32022/62.242021/62.412020/61.35
2024/72.552023/72.32022/72.392021/72.442020/71.82
2024/82.582023/82.532022/82.852021/82.072020/81.98
2024/92.352023/92.42022/92.862021/91.772020/92.21
2024/102.422023/102.672022/102.722021/102.12020/101.78
N/AN/A2023/112.882022/112.772021/112.342020/111.97
N/AN/A2023/122.172022/122.582021/122.562020/122.51
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.11%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.166.67-23.81
24Q2 (19)0.15-6.25-11.76
24Q1 (18)0.16-11.11-15.79
23Q4 (17)0.18-14.29-5.26
23Q3 (16)0.2123.5310.53
23Q2 (15)0.17-10.53-10.53
23Q1 (14)0.190.0-32.14
22Q4 (13)0.190.0-9.52
22Q3 (12)0.190.0-29.63
22Q2 (11)0.19-32.14-13.64
22Q1 (10)0.2833.3312.0
21Q4 (9)0.21-22.22-22.22
21Q3 (8)0.2722.7368.75
21Q2 (7)0.22-12.083.33
21Q1 (6)0.25-7.41108.33
20Q4 (5)0.2768.75107.69
20Q3 (4)0.1633.330.0
20Q2 (3)0.120.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.12-7.690.0
19Q4 (1)0.130.00.0

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