玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.2814.158.713.488.163.73N/A-
2024/101.12-14.9523.0312.28.113.72N/A-
2024/91.323.1128.7711.086.793.92.25-
2024/81.28-1.619.79.764.383.812.3-
2024/71.36.3130.428.482.413.942.22-
2024/61.22-13.652.617.18-1.423.932.3-
2024/51.429.868.645.95-2.223.732.43-
2024/41.2926.59-5.874.53-5.183.362.7-
2024/31.02-2.54-28.263.24-4.913.242.85-
2024/21.05-11.29-15.932.2211.753.472.66-
2024/11.18-5.5857.871.1857.873.612.56本月及本年增減百分比達50%以上,原因為去年適逢農曆年,工作天期較少,基值較低
2023/121.255.890.1613.71-23.793.342.77-
2023/111.1829.2-11.8312.46-25.573.122.97-
2023/100.91-10.98-22.7411.29-26.763.013.08-
2023/91.03-4.14-24.3310.37-27.13.093.18-
2023/81.077.21-28.629.35-27.393.263.02-
2023/71.0-16.35-46.038.28-27.233.52.81-
2023/61.19-8.58-40.937.28-23.583.872.59-
2023/51.3-4.82-14.686.09-18.914.12.45-
2023/41.37-3.515.014.78-20.04.042.48-
2023/31.4214.2-12.613.41-26.983.413.13-
2023/21.2466.58-10.971.99-34.653.243.3-
2023/10.75-40.09-54.720.75-54.723.333.2本月及本年增減百分比達50%以上,原因為:1.適逢農曆新年,工作天期較少 2.大陸防疫措施鬆綁,員工確診出勤人數減少
2022/121.25-6.78-9.0418.0-11.243.772.79-
2022/111.3413.22-15.0216.75-11.43.872.71-
2022/101.18-12.82-26.3415.41-11.074.032.6-
2022/91.36-9.57-21.4514.23-9.514.72.4-
2022/81.5-18.93-20.6912.87-8.045.372.1-
2022/71.85-8.44-4.5211.38-6.075.42.09-
2022/62.0232.021.359.53-6.364.852.41-
2022/51.5317.16-18.177.51-8.244.462.62-
2022/41.31-19.72-29.365.98-5.314.332.7-
2022/31.6316.36-5.14.674.644.672.47-
2022/21.4-15.2814.033.0510.714.422.61-
2022/11.6520.358.051.658.054.592.51-
2021/121.37-12.910.5720.2728.684.552.37-
2021/111.57-1.8518.4218.931.344.92.19-
2021/101.6-7.0321.7517.3332.665.222.06-
2021/91.73-8.728.7515.7333.885.551.81-
2021/81.89-2.4135.0114.034.545.821.73-
2021/71.94-2.825.7112.1134.475.81.74-
2021/61.996.5736.8410.1836.285.711.63-
2021/51.871.1424.148.1836.145.431.71-
2021/41.857.8516.516.3140.154.791.94-
2021/31.7139.8217.584.4753.04.471.92去年1-2月基期低 ,3月份客戶需求持續暢旺。
2021/21.23-19.7299.012.7588.334.112.08去年同期疫情影響基期低,然後本月的市場需求增加,致營收較去年成長 88.34%
2021/11.5312.0280.551.5380.554.222.031.去年適逢農曆年,工作天期較少,基值較低 2.因應客戶農曆年前的提升備貨量及市場需求,致營收較去年成長80.56%
2020/121.362.5314.4115.7615.674.012.04-
2020/111.330.898.114.3915.793.992.05-
2020/101.32-1.6833.6513.0616.634.062.02-
2020/91.34-4.2631.5111.7514.994.281.91-
2020/81.4-9.1333.8510.4113.164.41.86-
2020/71.545.7924.539.0110.514.51.82-
2020/61.46-3.3126.587.478.04.551.72-
2020/51.51-5.0728.356.014.294.551.72-
2020/41.598.8431.594.5-1.853.662.14-
2020/31.46136.675.392.92-13.762.922.67-
2020/20.62-27.17-17.351.46-26.992.652.94-
2020/10.85-29.01-32.710.85-32.710.0N/A-
2019/121.19-3.11-3.7413.62-19.980.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.182023/10.752022/11.652021/11.532020/10.85
2024/21.052023/21.242022/21.42021/21.232020/20.62
2024/31.022023/31.422022/31.632021/31.712020/31.46
2024/41.292023/41.372022/41.312021/41.852020/41.59
2024/51.422023/51.32022/51.532021/51.872020/51.51
2024/61.222023/61.192022/62.022021/61.992020/61.46
2024/71.32023/71.02022/71.852021/71.942020/71.54
2024/81.282023/81.072022/81.52021/81.892020/81.4
2024/91.322023/91.032022/91.362021/91.732020/91.34
2024/101.122023/100.912022/101.182021/101.62020/101.32
2024/111.282023/111.182022/111.342021/111.572020/111.33
N/AN/A2023/121.252022/121.252021/121.372020/121.36
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 2.14%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.1515.3866.67
24Q2 (19)0.1318.1844.44
24Q1 (18)0.1137.5-21.43
23Q4 (17)0.08-11.11-20.0
23Q3 (16)0.090.0-30.77
23Q2 (15)0.09-35.71-40.0
23Q1 (14)0.1440.040.0
22Q4 (13)0.1-23.0825.0
22Q3 (12)0.13-13.3330.0
22Q2 (11)0.1550.036.36
22Q1 (10)0.125.0-9.09
21Q4 (9)0.08-20.0-20.0
21Q3 (8)0.1-9.090.0
21Q2 (7)0.110.037.5
21Q1 (6)0.1110.0-26.67
20Q4 (5)0.10.025.0
20Q3 (4)0.125.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.08-46.670.0
20Q1 (2)0.1587.50.0
19Q4 (1)0.080.00.0

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