玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/107.02-1.9-7.580.228.8922.54N/A-
2024/97.16-14.373.6873.1833.9423.760.87-
2024/88.361.4627.5266.0238.3225.680.81-
2024/78.24-9.242.3157.6640.0427.050.77-
2024/69.08-6.7971.1349.4239.6726.980.81因需求回復正常水準,去年同期比較基期較低,本月同比增加71.13%。
2024/59.7419.1459.4440.3534.1225.860.84因需求回歸正常水準,去年同期比較基期較低,故本月比去年同期增加59.44%。
2024/48.172.837.4830.6127.6722.560.97-
2024/37.9523.451.4922.4424.4422.440.94-
2024/26.44-20.010.6414.4942.0722.230.95-
2024/18.054.083.868.0583.8623.230.91112年1月逢農曆春節營業天數減少1/3,113年1月回復正常營運日數且需求逐漸回溫,比較基期較低,二者影響致本期增加比例較大。
2023/127.744.044.2177.41-16.7822.770.79-
2023/117.44-2.020.8869.67-20.5121.940.82-
2023/107.599.9621.6462.23-23.6421.050.85-
2023/96.95.31-3.1754.63-27.3919.250.85-
2023/86.5613.23-5.647.73-29.9317.650.93-
2023/75.799.17-21.9741.17-32.6917.20.96-
2023/65.3-13.15-40.8335.38-34.1717.351.17-
2023/56.112.73-17.1730.08-32.8419.881.02-
2023/45.94-24.1-35.3723.97-35.9319.61.03-
2023/37.8334.59-31.2618.03-36.1118.031.09-
2023/25.8232.93-24.310.2-39.3915.561.26-
2023/14.38-18.42-52.084.38-52.0815.91.231月適逢農曆春節銷售天數減少1/3,去年同期正逢需求旺盛,比較基期較高,二者影響致本期減少比例較大。
2022/125.37-12.82-47.9193.01-17.0817.761.06-
2022/116.16-1.38-39.7187.65-13.9719.530.96-
2022/106.24-12.46-41.6581.49-11.120.320.93-
2022/97.132.67-28.3675.25-7.0621.51.1-
2022/86.95-6.4-29.6368.12-4.0823.331.01-
2022/77.42-17.22-26.3661.170.0423.760.99-
2022/68.9621.58-2.8953.755.2525.541.07-
2022/57.37-19.84-21.0944.797.0527.970.97-
2022/49.2-19.273.7837.4215.1428.280.96-
2022/311.3948.2137.9928.2219.428.220.83-
2022/27.69-15.858.4616.829.4227.130.87-
2022/19.14-11.3110.249.1410.2429.650.79-
2021/1210.30.8923.2112.1946.1531.210.72-
2021/1110.21-4.5629.62101.8848.9630.860.73-
2021/1010.77.4863.5291.6751.4830.520.74因受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/99.950.8436.3580.9750.0229.90.79因受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/89.87-2.0537.8771.0252.1529.180.81因受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/710.089.1692.5961.1554.7428.650.82因受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/69.23-1.283.4751.0748.9627.440.84因去年度受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/59.345.43135.8441.8443.0326.460.87因去年度受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/48.867.33130.432.528.4924.210.95因去年度受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低,本年景氣已回穩。
2021/38.2616.4910.5523.6310.2123.630.61-
2021/27.09-14.47-1.2415.3810.0223.740.6-
2021/18.29-0.8821.938.2921.9324.530.58-
2020/128.366.143.6876.76-35.1722.780.47-
2020/117.8820.4-0.3768.39-38.0221.720.5-
2020/106.54-10.37-25.7260.52-40.9221.00.52-
2020/97.31.96-9.6353.98-42.3519.690.66-
2020/87.1636.81-25.0746.68-45.4417.420.74-
2020/75.233.99-50.2539.52-48.014.230.91受疫情影響營收減少
2020/65.0326.98-33.2834.28-47.6412.841.28-
2020/53.963.0-65.0629.25-49.5115.281.08因受疫情影響致營收減少
2020/43.85-48.49-65.5625.29-45.7318.490.89因受新冠肺炎疫情影響致營收減少
2020/37.474.05-34.9121.44-39.4721.440.87-
2020/27.185.6-32.5413.97-41.6622.040.84-
2020/16.8-15.71-48.956.8-48.9522.770.81-
2019/128.061.98-33.71118.41-25.20.0N/A-
2019/117.91-10.23-35.5110.35-24.490.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/18.052023/14.382022/19.142021/18.292020/16.8
2024/26.442023/25.822022/27.692021/27.092020/27.18
2024/37.952023/37.832022/311.392021/38.262020/37.47
2024/48.172023/45.942022/49.22021/48.862020/43.85
2024/59.742023/56.112022/57.372021/59.342020/53.96
2024/69.082023/65.32022/68.962021/69.232020/65.03
2024/78.242023/75.792022/77.422021/710.082020/75.23
2024/88.362023/86.562022/86.952021/89.872020/87.16
2024/97.162023/96.92022/97.132021/99.952020/97.3
2024/107.022023/107.592022/106.242021/1010.72020/106.54
N/AN/A2023/117.442022/116.162021/1110.212020/117.88
N/AN/A2023/127.742022/125.372021/1210.32020/128.36
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.6%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.32-17.95-30.43
24Q2 (19)0.392.63-27.78
24Q1 (18)0.3822.58-25.49
23Q4 (17)0.31-32.61-58.67
23Q3 (16)0.46-14.81-13.21
23Q2 (15)0.545.88-40.0
23Q1 (14)0.51-32.0-22.73
22Q4 (13)0.7541.5138.89
22Q3 (12)0.53-41.11-23.19
22Q2 (11)0.936.36181.25
22Q1 (10)0.6622.22-31.96
21Q4 (9)0.54-21.74-33.33
21Q3 (8)0.69115.62-4.17
21Q2 (7)0.32-67.01-46.67
21Q1 (6)0.9719.7573.21
20Q4 (5)0.8112.5-6.9
20Q3 (4)0.7220.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.67.140.0
20Q1 (2)0.56-35.630.0
19Q4 (1)0.870.00.0

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