玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1116.86-14.37-0.35166.9547.4154.2N/A-
2024/1019.6911.4846.35150.0955.853.22N/A本年累計金額較同期增加,主要為外銷及民營案訂單成長。
2024/917.6611.2522.51130.457.3453.571.48本年累計金額較同期增加,主要為外銷及民營案訂單成長。
2024/815.87-20.7765.16112.7464.6755.171.44本月較同期增加,主要為民營案依顧客交期認列。
2024/720.044.061.3296.8764.5951.831.53本年累計金額較同期增加,主要為外銷及民營案訂單成長。
2024/619.2653.7337.2676.8365.4746.461.55本年累計金額較同期增加,主要為外銷及民營案訂單成長。
2024/512.53-14.54103.8557.5777.6942.771.68本月金額較同期增加,主要為外銷及民營案訂單成長。
2024/414.66-5.8735.1945.0471.5638.291.88本年累計金額較同期增加,主要為台電及外銷案訂單成長。
2024/315.5893.5548.4330.3897.1730.382.13本年累計金額較同期增加,主要為外銷案訂單成長,民營案次之。
2024/28.0519.32162.2214.8201.3440.551.6本月較同期增加主要為外銷案依顧客交期認列,故月營收起伏變化較大。
2024/16.75-73.8266.596.75266.5949.411.31本月較同期增加為公營及外銷案依顧客交期認列,故月營收起伏變化較大。
2023/1225.7552.2103.89139.079.3356.120.97本月較同期增加為民營及外銷案依顧客交期認列,以及統包工程案依投入成本比例認列,故月營收起伏變化較大。
2023/1116.9225.76100.36113.2574.5544.781.21本月較同期增加主要是公營及外銷案,依顧客交期認列所以月營收起伏變化大。
2023/1013.45-6.67140.9896.3370.6937.481.45本公司今年營收成長,依顧客交期出貨認列營收,所以月營收起伏變化大。
2023/914.4149.9884.4982.8862.9736.441.56本月與同期逾50%以上,主要是公營案及民營案增加。
2023/89.61-22.6188.568.4659.0736.061.58本月與同期逾50%以上,主要是公營案增加。
2023/712.42-11.5251.1958.8555.1132.61.75本月營收較同期增加251.2%主要是外銷案認列
2023/614.03128.3150.1546.4334.9531.031.68本公司為客製化產品營收起伏大,本月營收較同期增加50.15%,主要是認列公營案及外銷案。
2023/56.15-43.32-1.1832.429.2927.491.9-
2023/410.853.33122.0826.2539.3524.412.144月較去年同期增加122.08%,主要是民營及外銷案依顧客交期認列。
2023/310.5241.9184.0915.4110.415.413.353月營收較同期增加84.09%,主要是依顧客交期認列及去年Q4營收遞延影響。
2023/23.0766.81-41.544.91-40.517.542.94-
2023/11.84-85.42-38.691.84-38.6922.912.25-
2022/1212.6349.56-22.2877.51-14.0726.651.58-
2022/118.4451.26-2.9964.88-12.2621.841.93-
2022/105.58-28.55-1.5756.43-13.518.492.27-
2022/97.8153.2423.1350.85-14.6416.452.66-
2022/85.144.16-27.7743.04-19.1417.982.43-
2022/73.54-62.16-44.937.94-17.8219.12.29-
2022/69.3550.26-3.8334.4-13.4520.451.74-
2022/56.2227.37-14.0625.06-16.5616.812.12-
2022/44.88-14.33-28.5418.84-17.3515.842.25-
2022/35.78.57-19.6313.95-12.5613.952.32-
2022/25.2574.9225.818.25-6.9124.51.32-
2022/13.0-81.52-36.013.0-36.0127.961.16-
2021/1216.2586.6820.6890.26.4730.630.89-
2021/118.753.4733.7273.953.7820.721.32-
2021/105.67-10.61-6.7865.250.7719.081.43-
2021/96.35-10.11-25.3459.581.5619.821.58-
2021/87.069.97-23.153.236.1223.21.35-
2021/76.42-33.954.6746.1712.6723.381.34-
2021/69.7234.2745.0239.7514.0723.791.16-
2021/57.245.99.2330.036.721.171.3-
2021/46.83-3.6643.8322.795.9218.11.52-
2021/37.0969.9837.3115.96-4.8115.961.74-
2021/24.17-11.04-1.628.87-23.5722.331.24-
2021/14.69-65.15-36.234.69-36.2324.671.12-
2020/1213.46106.85-16.1684.7218.0426.060.86-
2020/116.516.98-16.1571.2527.921.091.06-
2020/106.08-28.41-10.0664.7435.0423.760.94-
2020/98.5-7.42121.6858.6642.4523.811.15本月較同期增加主要是民營案。
2020/89.1849.7139.7450.1634.3122.011.25-
2020/76.13-8.568.8540.9833.1519.461.41主要是民營案增加。
2020/66.71.148.0634.8528.3818.081.6-
2020/56.6339.4560.5828.1534.3916.541.74主要是民營案增加。
2020/44.75-8.035.521.5227.9714.162.04-
2020/35.1721.78-10.2416.7736.1916.771.66-
2020/24.24-42.341.4611.676.9727.661.0二月累計較同期增加為一月外銷增加
2020/17.36-54.18209.967.36209.960.0N/A公營、市面均增加,尤其外銷增加最多。
2019/1216.06106.8678.3371.7719.670.0N/A本月較同期增加只要是民營案及外銷案。
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/16.752023/11.842022/13.02021/14.692020/17.36
2024/28.052023/23.072022/25.252021/24.172020/24.24
2024/315.582023/310.52022/35.72021/37.092020/35.17
2024/414.662023/410.852022/44.882021/46.832020/44.75
2024/512.532023/56.152022/56.222021/57.242020/56.63
2024/619.262023/614.032022/69.352021/69.722020/66.7
2024/720.042023/712.422022/73.542021/76.422020/76.13
2024/815.872023/89.612022/85.12021/87.062020/89.18
2024/917.662023/914.412022/97.812021/96.352020/98.5
2024/1019.692023/1013.452022/105.582021/105.672020/106.08
2024/1116.862023/1116.922022/118.442021/118.72020/116.51
N/AN/A2023/1225.752022/1212.632021/1216.252020/1213.46
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 167.26%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)48.038.2585.16
24Q2 (19)44.376.56117.93
24Q1 (18)41.6445.8125.08
23Q4 (17)28.5610.181.68
23Q3 (16)25.9427.41103.93
23Q2 (15)20.3610.05157.07
23Q1 (14)18.517.6891.71
22Q4 (13)15.7223.58217.58
22Q3 (12)12.7260.6185.69
22Q2 (11)7.92-17.9323.36
22Q1 (10)9.6594.95-5.21
21Q4 (9)4.95-27.74-22.9
21Q3 (8)6.856.7-33.3
21Q2 (7)6.42-36.94-46.63
21Q1 (6)10.1858.57-11.09
20Q4 (5)6.42-37.49-31.77
20Q3 (4)10.27-14.630.0
20Q2 (3)12.035.070.0
20Q1 (2)11.4521.680.0
19Q4 (1)9.410.00.0

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