玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.47-23.86-17.595.91-35.021.49N/A-
2024/90.6250.6710.125.44-36.181.67.35-
2024/80.41-29.13-51.864.82-39.441.76.92因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2024/70.58-19.4-36.284.41-37.951.995.92-
2024/60.722.73-31.833.84-38.192.125.76-
2024/50.7-1.53-9.413.12-39.492.075.91-
2024/40.716.84-21.852.42-44.771.886.5-
2024/30.6629.66-44.081.72-50.731.727.51因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2024/20.51-5.72-56.721.05-54.161.468.84因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2024/10.5434.01-51.460.54-51.461.49.19因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/120.4-11.04-72.529.95-54.71.439.18因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/110.45-20.15-74.489.55-53.421.588.28因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/100.571.73-62.869.09-51.421.986.63因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/90.56-34.14-73.068.52-50.42.325.76因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/80.85-6.19-57.297.96-47.282.814.75因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/70.91-13.77-51.977.11-45.762.734.89因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/61.0536.53-49.936.21-44.722.735.12-
2023/50.77-15.05-62.745.16-43.522.864.88因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/40.91-23.54-53.334.39-37.93.274.27因市場需求減少,致本月營收較去年同期減少。
2023/31.180.35-44.13.48-32.063.484.09-
2023/21.185.72-12.872.3-23.563.773.78-
2023/11.12-24.13-32.341.12-32.344.373.26-
2022/121.47-17.39-33.8521.9716.44.792.94-
2022/111.7816.23-4.4120.523.115.392.61-
2022/101.53-26.22-10.3918.7226.595.62.51-
2022/92.084.4240.3817.1831.435.952.33-
2022/81.995.514.6915.1130.285.972.32-
2022/71.89-10.1118.5213.1233.036.052.29-
2022/62.11.5824.9811.2335.826.12.15-
2022/52.076.428.529.1338.586.132.14-
2022/41.94-8.4224.577.0741.835.422.42-
2022/32.1256.4241.945.1349.685.132.39-
2022/21.36-17.8970.693.0155.675.232.35因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2022/11.65-25.8245.181.6545.185.742.14-
2021/122.2319.3668.9618.8851.45.81.59因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/111.868.9654.0216.6549.335.061.83因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/101.7115.5856.6314.7948.764.931.87因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/91.48-14.6820.5613.0747.794.811.88-
2021/81.739.0235.6411.5952.185.011.81因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/71.59-5.2131.539.8655.514.881.86因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/61.684.4761.378.2761.174.841.65因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/51.613.1380.336.5961.114.661.72因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/41.564.3385.614.9855.763.852.08因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/31.4988.1176.33.4245.143.422.05因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2021/20.79-30.162.951.9327.683.252.16-
2021/11.14-13.6853.411.1453.413.661.92因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2020/121.328.8114.9812.479.993.621.69-
2020/111.2110.850.5311.159.433.531.73因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2020/101.09-11.0310.249.945.93.61.7-
2020/91.23-4.068.968.855.393.721.47因市場需求增加,致本月營收優於去年同期。
2020/81.285.7236.397.62-0.623.531.55-
2020/71.2116.2812.296.34-5.783.141.74-
2020/61.0416.74-8.075.13-9.232.771.82-
2020/50.896.15-17.64.09-9.522.581.96-
2020/40.84-0.89-19.73.2-6.982.462.05-
2020/30.859.850.432.36-1.422.362.3-
2020/20.774.0518.641.51-2.432.662.04-
2020/10.74-35.3-17.660.74-17.662.692.01-
2019/121.1542.44-5.4711.33-10.620.0N/A-
2019/110.8-18.85-33.6510.19-11.160.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.542023/11.122022/11.652021/11.142020/10.74
2024/20.512023/21.182022/21.362021/20.792020/20.77
2024/30.662023/31.182022/32.122021/31.492020/30.85
2024/40.712023/40.912022/41.942021/41.562020/40.84
2024/50.72023/50.772022/52.072021/51.612020/50.89
2024/60.722023/61.052022/62.12021/61.682020/61.04
2024/70.582023/70.912022/71.892021/71.592020/71.21
2024/80.412023/80.852022/81.992021/81.732020/81.28
2024/90.622023/90.562022/92.082021/91.482020/91.23
2024/100.472023/100.572022/101.532021/101.712020/101.09
N/AN/A2023/110.452022/111.782021/111.862020/111.21
N/AN/A2023/120.42022/121.472021/122.232020/121.32
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 15.0%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.9-4.261.12
24Q2 (19)0.946.82-24.19
24Q1 (18)0.88-2.22-52.17
23Q4 (17)0.91.12-59.28
23Q3 (16)0.89-28.23-67.87
23Q2 (15)1.24-32.61-64.37
23Q1 (14)1.84-16.74-39.87
22Q4 (13)2.21-20.2258.99
22Q3 (12)2.77-20.491.03
22Q2 (11)3.4813.73174.02
22Q1 (10)3.06120.14170.8
21Q4 (9)1.39-4.1437.62
21Q3 (8)1.4514.17163.64
21Q2 (7)1.2712.39323.33
21Q1 (6)1.1311.8821.51
20Q4 (5)1.0183.6410.99
20Q3 (4)0.5583.330.0
20Q2 (3)0.3-67.740.0
20Q1 (2)0.932.20.0
19Q4 (1)0.910.00.0

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