玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/108.41.35-1.286.770.9724.19N/A-
2024/98.2910.5415.2878.371.2123.321.83-
2024/87.5-0.3941.9170.08-0.2222.941.86-
2024/77.53-4.8934.5762.58-3.6523.971.78-
2024/67.92-7.17-13.9155.05-7.2526.311.45-
2024/58.53-13.52-7.4147.13-6.0328.721.33-
2024/49.86-4.4911.5538.6-5.7227.891.37-
2024/310.3334.21-31.3428.74-10.4828.741.13-
2024/27.69-28.2-22.9818.417.928.661.13-
2024/110.724.5751.5410.7251.5429.631.1主要係因去年同期適逢過年,出貨天數較少所致。
2023/1210.2518.35-29.12104.84-20.1127.411.1-
2023/118.661.82-33.3594.59-18.9924.361.24-
2023/108.518.28-9.4885.93-17.1920.981.44-
2023/97.1936.07-16.7577.43-17.9618.071.51-
2023/85.28-5.54-37.6170.24-18.0820.081.36-
2023/75.59-39.16-25.4464.95-15.9424.01.14-
2023/69.2-0.16-3.6459.36-14.9227.250.88-
2023/59.214.19-10.7450.16-16.733.10.73-
2023/48.84-41.22-33.7740.95-17.9433.880.71-
2023/315.0450.55-2.532.11-12.1532.110.75-
2023/29.9941.278.3317.06-19.2131.530.77-
2023/17.07-51.09-40.567.07-40.5634.530.7-
2022/1214.4611.339.95131.23-3.2936.850.71-
2022/1112.9938.29-15.11116.77-6.8631.030.85-
2022/109.48.77-36.68103.78-5.7126.50.99-
2022/98.641.97-18.5894.38-0.8824.611.58-
2022/88.4712.88-22.2585.741.3225.521.52-
2022/77.5-21.37-45.5277.274.8127.371.42-
2022/69.54-7.52-9.5269.7716.3833.221.05-
2022/510.32-22.69-11.6660.2221.9139.10.89-
2022/413.35-13.4633.1649.932.3238.00.91-
2022/315.4367.2836.536.5532.0136.550.82-
2022/29.22-22.4914.3621.1228.9131.460.95-
2022/111.915.1543.0211.943.0237.540.8-
2021/1210.33-32.498.39135.7156.1640.480.85景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/1115.313.1590.7125.3862.0540.760.84景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/1014.8439.8756.83110.0758.7336.350.95景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/910.61-2.6231.1495.2359.0335.280.91景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/810.9-20.976.7784.6263.3935.220.91景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/713.7830.5781.5973.7261.5836.010.89景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/610.55-9.7172.0159.9557.5932.260.86景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/511.6816.5468.1549.454.8133.010.84景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/410.03-11.366.4337.7151.129.390.94景氣回升好轉,故營收增加
2021/311.340.1548.6427.6946.2327.690.84-
2021/28.06-3.0629.9816.3844.6125.920.9-
2021/18.32-12.7262.318.3262.3125.880.9去年同期適逢過年營業天數減少,加上本期景氣回溫,故營業額提升
2020/129.5318.764.086.9-10.227.020.68-
2020/118.03-15.177.0977.37-11.6825.580.72-
2020/109.4616.9617.9569.34-13.4423.720.78-
2020/98.0931.2525.0559.88-16.9321.840.87-
2020/86.16-18.74-27.7251.79-21.0719.880.95-
2020/77.5923.6830.6145.63-20.0820.670.92-
2020/66.13-11.74-6.738.04-25.8219.110.76-
2020/56.9515.35-29.9331.91-28.6320.580.71-
2020/46.02-20.78-27.124.96-28.2619.830.74-
2020/37.622.56-21.7318.93-28.6218.930.71-
2020/26.221.0319.5211.33-32.6120.50.65-
2020/15.13-44.07-55.895.13-55.8921.790.61適逢春節營業天數下降故營收減少
2019/129.1722.2912.9296.77-12.940.0N/A-
2019/117.5-6.56-10.2387.61-14.980.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/110.722023/17.072022/111.92021/18.322020/15.13
2024/27.692023/29.992022/29.222021/28.062020/26.2
2024/310.332023/315.042022/315.432021/311.32020/37.6
2024/49.862023/48.842022/413.352021/410.032020/46.02
2024/58.532023/59.212022/510.322021/511.682020/56.95
2024/67.922023/69.22022/69.542021/610.552020/66.13
2024/77.532023/75.592022/77.52021/713.782020/77.59
2024/87.52023/85.282022/88.472021/810.92020/86.16
2024/98.292023/97.192022/98.642021/910.612020/98.09
2024/108.42023/108.52022/109.42021/1014.842020/109.46
N/AN/A2023/118.662022/1112.992021/1115.312020/118.03
N/AN/A2023/1210.252022/1214.462021/1210.332020/129.53
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 8.72%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.84-2.07407.14
24Q2 (19)2.938.1281.58
24Q1 (18)2.1600.09.38
23Q4 (17)0.3-46.43-57.75
23Q3 (16)0.56-26.3219.15
23Q2 (15)0.76-60.42-58.47
23Q1 (14)1.92170.42-33.56
22Q4 (13)0.7151.065.97
22Q3 (12)0.47-74.32-51.55
22Q2 (11)1.83-36.6827.08
22Q1 (10)2.89331.34-9.97
21Q4 (9)0.67-30.93-75.72
21Q3 (8)0.97-32.64-73.06
21Q2 (7)1.44-55.14-40.0
21Q1 (6)3.2116.3214.71
20Q4 (5)2.76-23.3340.1
20Q3 (4)3.650.00.0
20Q2 (3)2.4135.290.0
20Q1 (2)1.02-48.220.0
19Q4 (1)1.970.00.0

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