玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/115.87-29.42-24.0179.28-4.8621.99N/A-
2024/108.326.72127.8873.41-2.921.67N/A配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2024/97.840.3330.2765.09-9.5419.61.63-
2024/85.56-11.0717.9657.29-13.1521.541.48-
2024/76.25-35.7822.7451.73-15.5422.091.44-
2024/69.7359.2723.2845.49-19.0124.391.42-
2024/56.11-28.52-37.9335.76-25.9323.671.46-
2024/48.55-5.11-17.2129.65-22.8623.291.48-
2024/39.0156.99-9.221.1-24.9321.11.71-
2024/25.74-9.65-32.5912.09-33.5122.791.58-
2024/16.35-40.64-34.336.35-34.3324.781.46-
2023/1210.738.44-22.4294.04-23.6622.081.49-
2023/117.73111.68-32.1683.34-23.8117.371.9-
2023/103.65-38.99-68.4275.61-22.8414.352.29因客戶調節庫存,影響拉貨需求
2023/95.9927.06-50.471.95-16.7415.792.17因客戶調節庫存,影響拉貨需求
2023/84.71-7.46-53.7365.97-11.2817.691.94因客戶調節庫存,影響拉貨需求
2023/75.09-35.51-45.7261.26-4.5522.831.5-
2023/67.89-19.81-42.5756.172.4928.061.07-
2023/59.84-4.6610.948.2817.5830.091.0-
2023/410.334.0732.4738.4319.4228.761.05-
2023/39.9216.559.228.1115.2528.111.39-
2023/28.51-11.981.7818.1818.8531.981.22-
2023/19.67-29.8839.429.6739.4234.861.12-
2022/1213.7921.0535.95123.1827.2336.751.05-
2022/1111.39-1.4684.34109.3926.2135.031.1配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2022/1011.56-4.1759.5497.9921.7433.811.14配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2022/912.0718.5373.3986.4318.031.631.46配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2022/810.188.5637.8774.3612.1933.311.39-
2022/79.38-31.7727.7464.188.9732.01.44-
2022/613.7554.8696.254.86.2930.421.6配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2022/58.8813.870.3241.06-7.8425.761.89-
2022/47.79-14.23.9432.18-9.8625.241.93-
2022/39.088.63-3.9224.39-13.5324.391.97-
2022/28.3620.55-7.8715.3-18.3825.451.89-
2022/16.94-31.62-28.256.94-28.2523.262.07-
2021/1210.1564.14-19.8896.82-5.823.581.47-
2021/116.18-14.71-50.1886.67-3.8220.391.69主要國際港口擁塞影響船期,致營收減少
2021/107.254.14-5.5480.493.5721.591.6-
2021/96.96-5.75-36.9173.244.5721.691.65-
2021/87.380.59-26.6666.2812.3221.731.65-
2021/77.344.78-18.3458.920.3523.191.54-
2021/67.01-20.81-34.0551.5529.0523.351.53-
2021/58.8517.98-3.5944.5551.9225.81.39配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2021/47.5-20.6932.2435.777.2126.031.38配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2021/39.464.1546.4428.294.8328.21.22配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2021/29.08-6.1170.6418.75133.7931.411.1配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2021/19.67-23.65107.299.67107.2934.740.99配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2020/1212.662.0542.24102.78-0.4632.751.1-
2020/1112.4161.782.6890.12-4.4931.111.16配合客戶需求出貨量增加
2020/107.67-30.43-15.3577.71-11.2528.771.26-
2020/911.039.5546.5270.04-10.7830.090.97-
2020/810.0712.08.3859.01-16.8529.680.98-
2020/78.99-15.3817.048.94-20.6628.791.01-
2020/610.6215.7531.7839.95-26.0225.470.92-
2020/59.1861.86-12.8529.32-36.1621.31.1-
2020/45.67-12.18-40.5620.15-43.0915.481.51-
2020/36.4692.49-6.4614.48-44.0314.481.58-
2020/23.35-28.08-72.158.02-57.716.921.36因肺炎疫情影響,客戶拉貨需求調整
2020/14.66-47.61-32.524.66-32.520.0N/A-
2019/128.931.07-31.25103.262.680.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/16.352023/19.672022/16.942021/19.672020/14.66
2024/25.742023/28.512022/28.362021/29.082020/23.35
2024/39.012023/39.922022/39.082021/39.462020/36.46
2024/48.552023/410.332022/47.792021/47.52020/45.67
2024/56.112023/59.842022/58.882021/58.852020/59.18
2024/69.732023/67.892022/613.752021/67.012020/610.62
2024/76.252023/75.092022/79.382021/77.342020/78.99
2024/85.562023/84.712022/810.182021/87.382020/810.07
2024/97.82023/95.992022/912.072021/96.962020/911.03
2024/108.322023/103.652022/1011.562021/107.252020/107.67
2024/115.872023/117.732022/1111.392021/116.182020/1112.41
N/AN/A2023/1210.72022/1213.792021/1210.152020/1212.66
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 14.6%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)4.6956.86-0.42
24Q2 (19)2.99-33.56-22.94
24Q1 (18)4.5-20.07-1.32
23Q4 (17)5.6319.536.03
23Q3 (16)4.7121.39-31.24
23Q2 (15)3.88-14.91-32.76
23Q1 (14)4.56-14.12-33.33
22Q4 (13)5.31-22.48-14.63
22Q3 (12)6.8518.7231.48
22Q2 (11)5.77-15.6415.86
22Q1 (10)6.849.9710.86
21Q4 (9)6.2219.39-6.89
21Q3 (8)5.214.62-41.92
21Q2 (7)4.98-19.2940.28
21Q1 (6)6.17-7.6364.1
20Q4 (5)6.68-25.5344.28
20Q3 (4)8.97152.680.0
20Q2 (3)3.55-5.590.0
20Q1 (2)3.76-18.790.0
19Q4 (1)4.630.00.0

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