玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1013.73-6.1425.59148.21-6.5445.02N/A-
2024/914.63-12.1323.42134.48-8.9251.20.33-
2024/816.65-16.418.49119.87-11.7152.240.32
2024/719.9227.1514.69103.23-15.1751.960.33
2024/615.66-4.33-26.183.31-20.1446.720.34
2024/516.3711.52-36.9667.65-18.6744.620.35-
2024/414.688.28-32.5451.27-10.3438.290.41-
2024/313.5634.915.6536.593.336.590.53-
2024/210.05-22.59-6.7323.042.0533.350.58-
2024/112.9825.919.9612.989.9635.110.55
2023/1210.31-12.75-36.5180.74-35.0333.060.68-
2023/1111.828.09-47.47170.43-34.9534.610.65
2023/1010.93-7.76-60.71158.6-33.7936.840.61終端需求疲弱,以及客戶新舊機種交替空窗期,導致十月營收年減61%
2023/911.86-15.64-60.28147.67-30.2643.280.47終端需求疲弱導致九月營收年減60%
2023/814.05-19.07-51.03135.78-25.3552.620.39終端需求疲弱導致八月營收年同比下滑逾50%
2023/717.37-18.07-38.44121.7-20.5664.540.32
2023/621.2-18.39-3.76104.33-16.5268.940.39
2023/525.9819.3333.283.18-19.1960.580.44
2023/421.7769.6194.7557.18-31.4245.380.59通路與料件庫存逐步去化,客戶拉貨動能回升,致本月營收大幅增長
2023/312.8319.09-52.1735.42-50.9535.420.99
2023/210.78-8.73-36.6922.58-50.2838.820.9
2023/111.81-27.3-58.3611.81-58.3650.550.69
2022/1216.24-27.82-38.31278.21-32.366.570.51
2022/1122.5-19.13-17.63262.02-31.8780.180.42
2022/1027.83-6.76-1.7239.57-32.9486.380.39
2022/929.854.0-5.28211.74-35.6386.770.42-
2022/828.71.72-11.6181.91-38.8578.940.47
2022/728.2128.07-18.71153.21-42.1969.740.53
2022/622.0312.96-33.93124.99-45.7252.710.79
2022/519.574.47-40.27102.94-47.7457.510.72
2022/411.18-58.34-70.6183.38-49.2555.030.75
2022/326.8357.62-41.0472.21-42.8272.220.46
2022/217.02-39.97-52.4745.42-43.7671.710.46
2022/128.367.71-36.928.36-36.982.010.41
2021/1226.33-3.63-60.22410.95-50.1981.960.4
2021/1127.32-3.49-53.34384.62-49.3187.150.38
2021/1028.31-10.16-54.42357.3-48.9892.30.36
2021/931.52-2.93-61.06328.99-48.4598.70.33
2021/832.47-6.45-57.96297.49-46.61100.530.32
2021/734.714.09-55.79265.02-44.79100.710.32
2021/633.352.12-55.34230.31-42.64104.030.35
2021/532.65-14.15-55.57196.97-39.73116.210.31
2021/438.04-16.43-50.72164.33-35.13119.370.3
2021/345.5227.09-40.75126.29-28.3126.280.36
2021/235.82-20.3177.1680.76-18.66146.960.31
2021/144.95-32.1-43.1844.95-43.18169.710.27
2020/1266.213.02-25.08825.06-9.95186.890.32
2020/1158.57-5.72-46.67758.88-8.34201.640.3-
2020/1062.12-23.25-48.73700.35-2.47220.310.27
2020/980.954.8-22.24638.236.91236.710.41
2020/877.24-1.62-11.6557.313.05230.440.42
2020/778.525.13-9.54480.0618.36226.690.42
2020/674.681.6118.81401.5425.95225.370.41
2020/573.5-4.7834.47326.8527.71227.520.4-
2020/477.190.4678.74253.3625.9174.240.53
2020/376.83280.073.15176.1611.46176.160.74
2020/220.22-74.44-41.2999.318.83187.680.7-
2020/179.11-10.4761.1379.1161.13277.290.47
2019/1288.36-19.5431.91916.28-3.970.0N/A1.7429.34-
2019/11109.82-9.3614.15827.95-6.670.0N/A3.327.55-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/112.982023/111.812022/128.362021/144.952020/179.11
2024/210.052023/210.782022/217.022021/235.822020/220.22
2024/313.562023/312.832022/326.832021/345.522020/376.83
2024/414.682023/421.772022/411.182021/438.042020/477.19
2024/516.372023/525.982022/519.52021/532.652020/573.5
2024/615.662023/621.22022/622.032021/633.352020/674.68
2024/719.922023/717.372022/728.212021/734.712020/778.52
2024/816.652023/814.052022/828.72021/832.472020/877.24
2024/914.632023/911.862022/929.852021/931.522020/980.95
2024/1013.732023/1010.932022/1027.832021/1028.312020/1062.12
N/AN/A2023/1111.822022/1122.52021/1127.322020/1158.57
N/AN/A2023/1210.312022/1216.242021/1226.332020/1266.2
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 13.86%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)9.437.655.72
24Q2 (19)8.767.757.22
24Q1 (18)8.130.871.75
23Q4 (17)8.06-9.64-5.4
23Q3 (16)8.929.18-2.94
23Q2 (15)8.172.25-0.97
23Q1 (14)7.99-6.222.83
22Q4 (13)8.52-7.29-37.63
22Q3 (12)9.1911.39-50.03
22Q2 (11)8.256.18-61.59
22Q1 (10)7.77-43.12-67.17
21Q4 (9)13.66-25.72-40.84
21Q3 (8)18.39-14.39-63.86
21Q2 (7)21.48-9.254895.35
21Q1 (6)23.672.51119.98
20Q4 (5)23.09-54.6380.11
20Q3 (4)50.8911734.880.0
20Q2 (3)0.43-96.00.0
20Q1 (2)10.76-16.070.0
19Q4 (1)12.820.00.0

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