玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.52-0.76-38.015.11-60.291.57N/A主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/90.52-2.13-39.764.59-61.831.612.05主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/80.53-4.58-37.064.07-63.531.632.01主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/70.561.51-24.743.54-65.691.652.0主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/60.550.93-60.972.99-68.851.62.44主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/50.545.8-66.222.44-70.21.582.47主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/40.51-3.02-68.441.89-71.181.392.82主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/30.5352.56-70.91.38-72.081.383.08主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/20.35-31.45-78.250.85-72.761.522.81主要係客戶需求減少所致
2024/10.51-23.81-67.070.51-67.072.032.1主要係客戶需求減少所致
2023/120.66-22.98-58.3814.3914.082.361.62主要係客戶需求減少所致
2023/110.863.68-43.3913.7224.572.561.5-
2023/100.83-3.56-40.0412.8635.482.541.51-
2023/90.862.24-20.1212.0348.42.441.62-
2023/80.8414.1-26.5211.1758.932.991.32主要係112年上半年度客戶需求增加所致
2023/70.74-47.35-13.4310.3275.613.751.05主要係112年上半年度客戶需求增加所致
2023/61.4-12.6442.759.5990.754.640.79主要係客戶需求增加所致
2023/51.61-1.1515.258.18102.425.050.73主要係客戶需求增加所致
2023/41.63-10.5725.316.57148.335.040.73主要係客戶需求增加所致
2023/31.8214.03217.114.95266.554.950.78主要係客戶需求增加所致
2023/21.593.75644.213.13303.044.730.82主要係客戶需求增加所致
2023/11.54-3.68173.131.54173.134.650.83主要係客戶需求增加所致
2022/121.64.7494.8212.6152.374.510.75主要係客戶需求增加所致
2022/111.529.81205.5611.0247.713.990.85主要係客戶需求增加所致
2022/101.3928.48122.439.4936.413.610.94主要係客戶需求增加所致
2022/91.08-5.9436.668.1127.943.081.18-
2022/81.1534.4234.797.0326.72.981.22-
2022/70.85-13.1725.965.8825.233.231.13-
2022/60.98-29.4720.495.0325.113.670.9-
2022/51.397.46166.24.0426.293.261.01主係111年第1季受缺料影響的貨延遲至本季出貨。
2022/41.3126.3193.92.65-1.082.081.59主係111年第1季受缺料影響的貨延遲至本季出貨。
2022/30.57167.61-10.221.35-32.741.352.16-
2022/20.21-61.92-65.870.78-43.251.61.82主係因疫情影響缺料
2022/10.56-31.29-24.090.56-24.091.881.55-
2021/120.8264.2874.778.281.481.941.13主係去年同期因受疫情影響出貨減少所致。
2021/110.5-20.06-24.087.46-2.981.911.15-
2021/100.62-21.054.976.96-1.012.260.97-
2021/90.79-7.2345.896.34-1.562.321.1-
2021/80.8525.6225.975.55-5.922.351.09-
2021/70.68-16.958.54.69-10.052.021.26-
2021/60.8255.8122.44.02-12.582.011.46-
2021/50.52-21.72-21.583.2-18.521.831.61-
2021/40.674.78-7.572.68-17.891.941.52-
2021/30.641.72-16.512.01-20.832.011.35-
2021/20.63-15.3-21.071.37-22.71.841.47-
2021/10.7458.19-24.030.74-24.031.871.45-
2020/120.47-28.63-32.878.16-17.341.721.51-
2020/110.6610.53-11.847.69-16.161.791.45-
2020/100.599.71-29.927.03-16.551.811.44-
2020/90.54-19.9-38.466.44-15.051.841.55-
2020/80.688.2-29.675.89-11.971.971.45-
2020/70.62-6.31-22.185.22-9.011.961.45-
2020/60.67-0.18-29.954.59-6.872.061.32-
2020/50.67-7.72-23.843.93-1.352.161.26-
2020/40.72-5.35-13.913.264.992.281.19-
2020/30.76-3.82-2.92.5412.022.541.19-
2020/20.8-18.4923.111.7719.982.471.22-
2020/10.9839.817.550.9817.552.421.24-
2019/120.7-6.28-11.649.87-2.620.0N/A-
2019/110.74-12.12-14.949.17-1.860.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.512023/11.542022/10.562021/10.742020/10.98
2024/20.352023/21.592022/20.212021/20.632020/20.8
2024/30.532023/31.822022/30.572021/30.642020/30.76
2024/40.512023/41.632022/41.32021/40.672020/40.72
2024/50.542023/51.612022/51.392021/50.522020/50.67
2024/60.552023/61.42022/60.982021/60.822020/60.67
2024/70.562023/70.742022/70.852021/70.682020/70.62
2024/80.532023/80.842022/81.152021/80.852020/80.68
2024/90.522023/90.862022/91.082021/90.792020/90.54
2024/100.522023/100.832022/101.392021/100.622020/100.59
N/AN/A2023/110.862022/111.522021/110.52020/110.66
N/AN/A2023/120.662022/121.62021/120.822020/120.47
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 7.83%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.61221.05221.05
24Q2 (19)0.195.56-17.39
24Q1 (18)0.185.88-18.18
23Q4 (17)0.17-10.53-26.09
23Q3 (16)0.19-17.39-17.39
23Q2 (15)0.234.5553.33
23Q1 (14)0.22-4.3557.14
22Q4 (13)0.230.0130.0
22Q3 (12)0.2353.33-8.0
22Q2 (11)0.157.140
22Q1 (10)0.1440.00
21Q4 (9)0.1-60.00
21Q3 (8)0.2500

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