玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.921.55-80.0823.24-53.712.83N/A客戶端因產品驗證而調整出貨時程
2024/90.91-9.29-81.9922.32-51.022.745.5客戶端因產品驗證而調整出貨時程
2024/81.020.28-80.4621.41-47.174.613.27客戶端因產品驗證而調整出貨時程
2024/70.83-69.96-84.2220.41-42.357.372.04客戶端因產品驗證而調整出貨時程
2024/62.77-26.44-45.5119.58-35.029.751.57-
2024/53.7717.52-31.7516.81-32.8810.321.48-
2024/43.21-4.04-28.5613.04-33.28.811.74-
2024/33.3447.77-38.539.83-34.599.831.91-
2024/22.26-46.49-54.986.49-32.3610.431.8營收淡季及工作天數減少
2024/14.237.28-7.484.23-7.4812.181.54-
2023/123.94-1.86-35.0158.17-11.6212.591.48-
2023/114.01-13.37-44.3554.23-9.2513.691.36-
2023/104.63-8.14-26.7650.21-4.4314.811.26-
2023/95.04-1.6-18.6945.58-1.3715.451.34-
2023/85.13-2.84-21.8340.541.315.491.34-
2023/75.283.72-10.4135.415.8415.891.31-
2023/65.09-7.88-5.3230.139.3215.11.46-
2023/55.5223.0332.3325.0412.8715.451.43-
2023/44.49-17.439.7919.528.3514.951.47-
2023/35.448.212.8515.037.9315.031.62-
2023/25.029.9837.499.5911.0415.651.56-
2023/14.57-24.63-8.344.57-8.3417.841.37-
2022/126.06-15.9714.0765.824.8519.61.34-
2022/117.2114.0141.859.763.9919.751.33-
2022/106.331.977.7252.540.3219.091.38-
2022/96.2-5.414.6346.22-0.6118.661.28-
2022/86.5611.3517.7540.01-1.3717.831.34-
2022/75.899.610.7833.45-4.4215.441.55-
2022/65.3728.76-5.7527.56-5.4613.641.7-
2022/54.172.07-0.6222.19-5.3913.551.71-
2022/44.09-22.64-21.6518.01-6.4313.031.78-
2022/35.2944.6510.4713.92-0.7713.921.51-
2022/23.65-26.687.248.64-6.613.951.51-
2022/14.98-6.19-14.674.98-14.6715.391.37-
2021/125.314.45-21.862.78-20.9116.271.21-
2021/115.09-13.38-31.4857.46-20.8216.891.17-
2021/105.87-0.95-20.3552.37-19.6117.371.14-
2021/95.936.45-26.1546.5-19.5117.351.14-
2021/85.57-4.69-34.5440.57-18.4417.121.15-
2021/75.842.49-16.435.0-15.1215.751.25-
2021/65.735.783.8729.16-14.8615.121.09-
2021/54.2-19.53-38.6323.45-18.4314.21.16-
2021/45.229.08-29.1219.25-12.1213.411.23-
2021/34.7840.42-34.0414.03-3.5314.031.04-
2021/23.41-41.67-6.329.2526.8216.040.91-
2021/15.84-14.0359.85.8459.820.060.73客戶端因應市場需求,而季節性調整出貨時程。
2020/126.8-8.4814.6979.372.0221.60.61-
2020/117.430.6922.1972.580.9822.830.57-
2020/107.37-8.1673.9465.15-0.9723.920.55客戶端因應市場需求而季節性調整出貨時程。
2020/98.03-5.6427.8857.78-6.1323.530.68-
2020/88.5121.7311.2149.75-10.020.990.76-
2020/76.9927.35-18.2441.24-13.4119.330.83-
2020/65.49-19.78-17.8834.25-12.3519.70.72-
2020/56.84-7.05-4.8728.75-11.2121.460.66-
2020/47.361.51.2821.91-13.0218.260.78-
2020/37.2599.431.314.55-18.8214.551.09-
2020/23.64-0.49-8.797.29-32.2213.221.2-
2020/13.66-38.29-46.023.66-46.0215.661.01-
2019/125.92-2.5-10.6677.80.10.0N/A-
2019/116.0843.33-11.1271.871.110.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/14.232023/14.572022/14.982021/15.842020/13.66
2024/22.262023/25.022022/23.652021/23.412020/23.64
2024/33.342023/35.442022/35.292021/34.782020/37.25
2024/43.212023/44.492022/44.092021/45.222020/47.36
2024/53.772023/55.522022/54.172021/54.22020/56.84
2024/62.772023/65.092022/65.372021/65.72020/65.49
2024/70.832023/75.282022/75.892021/75.842020/76.99
2024/81.02023/85.132022/86.562021/85.572020/88.51
2024/90.912023/95.042022/96.22021/95.932020/98.03
2024/100.922023/104.632022/106.332021/105.872020/107.37
N/AN/A2023/114.012022/117.212021/115.092020/117.43
N/AN/A2023/123.942022/126.062021/125.312020/126.8
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 12.75%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)4.051.0105.58
24Q2 (19)4.012.3184.4
24Q1 (18)3.9270.43126.59
23Q4 (17)2.316.7586.99
23Q3 (16)1.9739.7241.73
23Q2 (15)1.41-18.5-31.55
23Q1 (14)1.7340.65-33.72
22Q4 (13)1.23-11.51-35.94
22Q3 (12)1.39-32.52-3.47
22Q2 (11)2.06-21.0758.46
22Q1 (10)2.6135.9476.35
21Q4 (9)1.9233.33-28.62
21Q3 (8)1.4410.775.88
21Q2 (7)1.3-12.16-2.26
21Q1 (6)1.48-44.9811.28
20Q4 (5)2.6997.7933.17
20Q3 (4)1.362.260.0
20Q2 (3)1.330.00.0
20Q1 (2)1.33-34.160.0
19Q4 (1)2.020.00.0

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