玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1041.2-7.55-6.28438.716.88131.27N/A0.081.23-
2024/944.57-2.0313.79397.58.47132.480.220.11.15-
2024/845.57.278.25352.947.83131.940.220.121.05-
2024/742.41-3.674.2307.447.77129.560.230.090.93-
2024/644.032.19.54265.038.36131.250.230.120.84-
2024/543.12-2.217.92221.08.13133.060.230.110.71-
2024/444.1-3.812.68177.888.17134.910.230.130.61-
2024/345.851.9512.51133.7810.12133.780.230.160.47-
2024/244.974.6520.5787.948.91133.220.230.170.32-
2024/142.97-5.11-1.0942.97-1.09130.660.240.140.14-
2023/1245.286.786.64498.1234.14131.660.20.441.73-
2023/1142.41-3.5312.98452.8437.69125.540.210.091.29-
2023/1043.9612.2418.89410.4340.87125.150.210.11.2-
2023/939.17-6.814.41366.4744.07121.890.230.081.09-
2023/842.033.2624.85327.348.68122.920.220.11.02-
2023/740.71.2636.06285.2752.98120.840.230.10.92疫情影響減退,運量回升。
2023/640.190.5988.99244.5756.21123.090.220.090.82疫情影響減退,運量回升
2023/539.95-6.96123.13204.3851.06123.640.220.10.73疫情影響減退,運量回升。
2023/442.945.3956.24164.4340.07120.980.230.160.63因疫情趨緩,運量逐漸回升所致。
2023/340.759.2526.45121.4935.12121.490.230.130.47-
2023/237.29-14.1532.3880.7439.97123.20.230.130.34-
2023/143.452.3147.2243.4547.22123.440.230.210.21-
2022/1242.4613.1313.23371.3322.84116.970.210.090.76-
2022/1137.531.522.32328.8724.2108.740.220.120.66-
2022/1036.988.0130.54291.3424.45104.870.230.150.55-
2022/934.231.6959.43254.3623.6197.80.260.10.4因疫情趨緩,運量逐漸回升所致。
2022/833.6612.53107.63220.1319.4384.840.30.110.3因疫情趨緩,運量逐漸回升所致。
2022/729.9140.65255.95186.4710.9369.080.370.030.19因疫情趨緩,運量逐漸回升所致。
2022/621.2718.76429.92156.56-1.9666.660.40.030.15因疫情趨緩,運量逐漸回升所致。
2022/517.9-34.85-5.85135.29-13.0977.610.340.00.13-
2022/427.49-14.69-27.64117.39-14.187.880.30.00.13-
2022/332.2214.36-7.1789.9-8.8889.90.30.060.12-
2022/228.17-4.53-13.2357.68-9.8195.180.280.030.07-
2022/129.51-21.3-6.2829.51-6.2897.690.270.040.04-
2021/1237.522.21-4.68302.28-22.7696.50.240.090.76受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/1130.688.32-16.56264.78-24.7880.480.290.070.67受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/1028.3231.93-27.31234.1-25.7466.010.360.040.6受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/921.4732.43-36.19205.77-25.5246.080.530.010.56受疫情影響, 運量減少所致。
2021/816.2192.92-56.11184.31-24.0428.630.850.080.55受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/78.4109.4-75.02168.09-18.2831.430.770.080.46受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/64.01-78.9-87.06159.69-7.1861.020.380.060.38受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/519.02-49.93-22.95155.6810.3891.720.260.00.33受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2021/437.999.4286.74136.6617.46105.170.220.120.33去年因新冠疫情爆發,公司以減班因應進而營收驟降,今年因疫情管控得宜,運量回升故較去年同期營收增加。
2021/334.716.945.9998.672.7898.670.240.080.21-
2021/232.473.1118.7763.96-11.44103.30.230.070.12-
2021/131.49-19.95-29.8431.49-29.84107.60.220.050.05-
2020/1239.346.98-6.4391.37-17.61115.080.180.150.96-
2020/1136.77-5.64-6.95352.03-18.7109.390.190.120.81受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/1038.9715.81-3.64315.26-19.88109.560.190.160.69受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/933.65-8.91-13.2276.29-21.74104.230.210.090.53受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/836.949.79-4.76242.64-22.8101.610.220.120.44受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/733.658.43-14.23205.7-25.3489.360.250.070.32受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/631.0325.7-21.84172.06-27.1876.050.320.050.24受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/524.6821.35-35.74141.03-28.2668.80.360.00.19受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/420.34-14.44-49.83116.34-26.4471.460.340.00.19受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/323.78-13.03-40.2896.0-18.3896.00.250.00.19受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/227.34-39.09-31.8672.23-7.17114.260.210.010.19受疫情影響,運量減少所致。
2020/144.896.7919.1244.8919.12126.440.190.180.18-
2019/1242.036.352.56475.074.60.0N/A0.11.38-
2019/1139.52-2.280.73433.044.810.0N/A0.11.28-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/142.972023/143.452022/129.512021/131.492020/144.89
2024/244.972023/237.292022/228.172021/232.472020/227.34
2024/345.852023/340.752022/332.222021/334.712020/323.78
2024/444.12023/442.942022/427.492021/437.992020/420.34
2024/543.122023/539.952022/517.92021/519.022020/524.68
2024/644.032023/640.192022/621.272021/64.012020/631.03
2024/742.412023/740.72022/729.912021/78.42020/733.65
2024/845.52023/842.032022/833.662021/816.212020/836.94
2024/944.572023/939.172022/934.232021/921.472020/933.65
2024/1041.22023/1043.962022/1036.982021/1028.322020/1038.97
N/AN/A2023/1142.412022/1137.532021/1130.682020/1136.77
N/AN/A2023/1245.282022/1242.462021/1237.52020/1239.34
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.57%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)8.8211.22-12.06
24Q2 (19)7.93-27.1813.94
24Q1 (18)10.8920.732.74
23Q4 (17)9.02-10.07-29.86
23Q3 (16)10.0344.1124.13
23Q2 (15)6.96-34.3438.92
23Q1 (14)10.6-17.5715.59
22Q4 (13)12.8659.1622.13
22Q3 (12)8.0861.2829.07
22Q2 (11)5.01-45.3738.02
22Q1 (10)9.17-12.920.33
21Q4 (9)10.5368.2172.06
21Q3 (8)6.2672.45-35.99
21Q2 (7)3.63-60.28-33.52
21Q1 (6)9.1449.3533.24
20Q4 (5)6.12-37.42-51.51
20Q3 (4)9.7879.120.0
20Q2 (3)5.46-20.410.0
20Q1 (2)6.86-45.640.0
19Q4 (1)12.620.00.0

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