玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/106.353.5569.0958.5761.4919.94N/A子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/96.13-17.6961.3652.2160.6121.640.81子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/87.45-7.43112.1146.0860.5123.620.74子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/78.05-0.76138.5538.6253.3123.270.75子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/68.1114.21100.2730.5740.1220.980.99子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/57.123.26125.6622.4626.4116.161.28子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/45.7675.0373.115.355.0312.061.72子公司新市場出貨增加所致
2024/33.299.85-15.039.59-15.049.592.1-
2024/23.0-9.07-16.46.3-15.059.32.16-
2024/13.39.61-13.793.3-13.799.582.1-
2023/123.01-8.18-43.0642.55-28.310.041.44-
2023/113.28-12.8-29.1939.54-26.8610.831.33-
2023/103.76-1.17-17.3536.27-26.6411.071.3-
2023/93.88.18-40.1332.51-27.5810.691.32-
2023/83.514.09-31.9228.71-25.5110.941.29-
2023/73.38-16.68-27.7625.19-24.5210.581.34-
2023/64.0528.69-20.921.82-24.010.531.28-
2023/53.15-5.44-37.5417.76-24.6710.351.31-
2023/43.33-14.08-30.6214.62-21.1710.791.25-
2023/33.888.08-23.6411.29-17.8711.291.35-
2023/23.59-6.25-3.377.41-14.4912.691.2-
2023/13.83-27.6-22.813.83-22.8113.741.11-
2022/125.2814.191.159.3512.5814.461.19-
2022/114.631.78-0.4354.0713.8415.521.11-
2022/104.55-28.4110.6449.4415.3916.061.07-
2022/96.3523.0229.1944.8915.8916.191.21-
2022/85.1610.4525.1338.5413.9614.961.3-
2022/74.67-8.766.0133.3812.4114.841.32-
2022/65.121.619.128.7113.5214.961.44-
2022/55.045.0324.2323.5814.5314.921.44-
2022/44.8-5.4410.4318.5412.1513.591.58-
2022/35.0836.7716.9613.7412.7713.741.62-
2022/23.71-25.116.898.6710.4413.891.6-
2022/14.96-5.1513.264.9613.2614.831.5-
2021/125.2312.45-0.6952.72-16.5213.981.61-
2021/114.6513.1-4.9347.49-17.9613.671.65-
2021/104.11-16.41-28.8742.84-19.1613.151.71-
2021/94.9219.15-24.1438.74-17.9713.451.51-
2021/84.13-6.42-34.2833.82-16.9913.231.53-
2021/74.41-6.1-28.2629.69-13.8413.161.54-
2021/64.715.69-19.3425.29-10.7113.11.33-
2021/54.06-6.63-25.220.59-8.4812.741.36-
2021/44.350.15-12.4616.53-3.1712.161.43-
2021/34.3424.99-12.1912.190.6312.191.32-
2021/23.47-20.653.537.859.4713.111.23-
2021/14.38-16.8514.74.3814.714.531.11-
2020/125.267.65-3.9663.1515.215.930.94-
2020/114.89-15.372.0957.8917.3317.140.87-
2020/105.78-10.8532.8753.018.9718.530.81-
2020/96.483.2248.5747.2217.4618.90.75-
2020/86.282.1472.4540.7413.6818.240.78客戶需求持續增溫,帶動營收成長
2020/76.155.5662.3134.477.0417.390.82客戶需求持續增溫,帶動營收成長
2020/65.827.2939.0828.32-0.3216.210.85-
2020/55.439.2630.9322.5-7.1315.330.9-
2020/44.970.4710.7417.08-14.9813.261.04-
2020/34.9447.37-9.1712.11-22.3712.111.03-
2020/23.35-12.08-16.177.17-29.4412.650.99-
2020/13.81-30.39-38.063.81-38.0614.080.89-
2019/125.4814.45-3.4254.82-19.860.0N/A-
2019/114.7910.14-27.7949.34-21.340.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/13.32023/13.832022/14.962021/14.382020/13.81
2024/23.02023/23.592022/23.712021/23.472020/23.35
2024/33.292023/33.882022/35.082021/34.342020/34.94
2024/45.762023/43.332022/44.82021/44.352020/44.97
2024/57.12023/53.152022/55.042021/54.062020/55.43
2024/68.112023/64.052022/65.122021/64.72020/65.82
2024/78.052023/73.382022/74.672021/74.412020/76.15
2024/87.452023/83.512022/85.162021/84.132020/86.28
2024/96.132023/93.82022/96.352021/94.922020/96.48
2024/106.352023/103.762022/104.552021/104.112020/105.78
N/AN/A2023/113.282022/114.632021/114.652020/114.89
N/AN/A2023/123.012022/125.282021/125.232020/125.26
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 12.26%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.74-12.18128.33
24Q2 (19)3.12149.6183.64
24Q1 (18)1.2532.980.0
23Q4 (17)0.94-21.670.0
23Q3 (16)1.29.0926.32
23Q2 (15)1.1-12.0-19.71
23Q1 (14)1.2532.988.7
22Q4 (13)0.94-1.05-15.32
22Q3 (12)0.95-30.66-24.6
22Q2 (11)1.3719.13-11.04
22Q1 (10)1.153.6-20.14
21Q4 (9)1.11-11.9-12.6
21Q3 (8)1.26-18.18-3.08
21Q2 (7)1.546.9419.38
21Q1 (6)1.4413.3925.22
20Q4 (5)1.27-2.318.55
20Q3 (4)1.30.780.0
20Q2 (3)1.2912.170.0
20Q1 (2)1.15-1.710.0
19Q4 (1)1.170.00.0

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