玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1045.0448.54-30.88403.37-18.66127.64N/A去年基期較高,今年10月營收仍較上月(9月)成長48.55%。
2024/930.32-42.0-10.33358.34-16.81135.440.62-
2024/852.28-1.0622.43328.02-17.36135.830.62-
2024/752.8472.13-20.58275.74-22.16120.710.7-
2024/630.7-17.426.09222.89-22.53114.980.98-
2024/537.17-21.1-20.4192.19-27.02110.291.02-
2024/447.1181.12-27.2155.02-28.45101.331.11-
2024/326.01-7.77-60.42107.91-28.99107.911.07113年3月客戶需求下降
2024/228.2-47.4710.481.9-5.03109.751.06-
2024/153.792.78-11.5353.7-11.53118.570.98-
2023/1227.85-24.76-45.88560.81-7.19130.030.75-
2023/1137.02-43.18-25.84532.96-3.59135.990.72-
2023/1065.1692.729.14495.94-1.38141.670.69-
2023/933.81-20.81-25.46430.78-4.78143.050.85-
2023/842.7-35.82-14.89396.97-2.48133.590.91-
2023/766.54173.34.86354.27-0.73137.580.88-
2023/624.35-47.86-49.54287.73-1.94135.761.09-
2023/546.7-27.84-6.87263.387.41177.140.84-
2023/464.72-1.5318.32216.6911.09155.990.95-
2023/365.73157.2738.97151.978.27151.970.92-
2023/225.55-57.9-33.9686.24-7.32137.711.02-
2023/160.6917.9211.6260.6911.62162.080.87-
2022/1251.473.0972.0604.2828.2151.850.66111年12月客戶需求上升
2022/1149.92-1.0540.94552.8225.23145.740.69-
2022/1050.4611.2241.96502.8923.86145.990.68-
2022/945.36-9.58-5.7452.4422.12158.990.64-
2022/850.17-20.9210.56407.0726.28161.880.63-
2022/763.4531.4845.77356.928.86161.850.63-
2022/648.26-3.7640.05293.4525.7153.090.53-
2022/550.14-8.3132.93245.1923.22152.130.54-
2022/454.6915.6420.78195.0520.94140.680.58-
2022/347.322.2521.64140.3521.01140.350.44-
2022/238.69-28.8421.0593.0620.69122.980.5-
2022/154.3781.720.4454.3720.44119.710.52-
2021/1229.92-15.52-6.59471.3412.33100.880.53-
2021/1135.42-0.33-7.21441.4213.89119.070.45-
2021/1035.54-26.12-17.99406.016.2129.030.41-
2021/948.116.0124.78370.4621.04137.020.23-
2021/845.384.2627.79322.3520.51123.360.26-
2021/743.5326.3210.28276.9719.39115.70.28-
2021/634.46-8.6518.3233.4421.26117.460.31-
2021/537.72-16.720.29198.9821.79121.880.29-
2021/445.2816.4623.06161.2622.14116.120.31-
2021/338.8821.6520.18115.9821.79115.980.39-
2021/231.96-29.24.9677.122.61109.140.42-
2021/145.1440.939.1945.1439.19115.350.39-
2020/1232.04-16.085.97419.596.03113.550.36-
2020/1138.18-11.91-8.52387.566.03120.070.34-
2020/1043.3412.410.04349.387.91117.410.35-
2020/938.568.577.86306.049.12113.530.55-
2020/835.51-10.02-8.41267.489.31104.10.6-
2020/739.4735.5218.1231.9712.6599.950.63-
2020/629.12-7.12-6.64192.511.5997.280.56-
2020/531.36-14.77-5.28163.3815.62100.50.54-
2020/436.813.7430.04132.0222.0299.590.55-
2020/332.356.2430.3795.2319.1895.230.59-
2020/230.45-6.176.0462.8814.1493.110.61108年2月因春節關係故營業收入較低
2020/132.437.27-14.1832.43-14.18104.390.54-
2019/1230.23-27.5641.63395.7224.450.0N/A-
2019/1141.73-3.6727.49365.4923.220.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/153.72023/160.692022/154.372021/145.142020/132.43
2024/228.22023/225.552022/238.692021/231.962020/230.45
2024/326.012023/365.732022/347.32021/338.882020/332.35
2024/447.112023/464.722022/454.692021/445.282020/436.8
2024/537.172023/546.72022/550.142021/537.722020/531.36
2024/630.72023/624.352022/648.262021/634.462020/629.12
2024/752.842023/766.542022/763.452021/743.532020/739.47
2024/852.282023/842.72022/850.172021/845.382020/835.51
2024/930.322023/933.812022/945.362021/948.112020/938.56
2024/1045.042023/1065.162022/1050.462021/1035.542020/1043.34
N/AN/A2023/1137.022022/1149.922021/1135.422020/1138.18
N/AN/A2023/1227.852022/1251.472021/1229.922020/1232.04
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 13.29%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)3.09-27.97-8.58
24Q2 (19)4.2922.92-21.14
24Q1 (18)3.4923.32-51.53
23Q4 (17)2.83-16.27-50.0
23Q3 (16)3.38-37.87-39.75
23Q2 (15)5.44-24.44-23.38
23Q1 (14)7.227.21-1.37
22Q4 (13)5.660.89-11.98
22Q3 (12)5.61-20.998.51
22Q2 (11)7.1-2.7482.52
22Q1 (10)7.313.5332.49
21Q4 (9)6.4324.3743.85
21Q3 (8)5.1732.94.44
21Q2 (7)3.89-29.4-26.05
21Q1 (6)5.5123.27-1.08
20Q4 (5)4.47-9.7-0.45
20Q3 (4)4.95-5.890.0
20Q2 (3)5.26-5.570.0
20Q1 (2)5.5724.050.0
19Q4 (1)4.490.00.0

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