玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.5-28.53-50.177.15-20.171.91N/A客戶需求減少
2024/90.7-1.42-31.816.65-16.382.181.82-
2024/80.71-7.64-30.255.95-14.092.231.77-
2024/70.772.08-35.965.24-11.32.321.7-
2024/60.75-6.01-26.114.47-5.012.361.68-
2024/50.8-0.34-15.723.720.822.331.7-
2024/40.811.27-12.752.916.582.181.82-
2024/30.7210.5-14.872.1116.432.111.73-
2024/20.65-10.729.561.3944.042.271.6-
2024/10.73-17.0560.010.7360.012.521.45客戶需求增加
2023/120.88-1.87161.7810.7498.042.791.19客戶需求增加
2023/110.9-10.36215.339.8693.822.931.14客戶需求增加
2023/101.0-2.2334.18.9686.593.051.09客戶需求增加
2023/91.030.83354.297.9574.053.250.95客戶需求增加
2023/81.02-15.21184.376.9259.473.240.95客戶需求增加
2023/71.217.78195.845.9148.243.170.97客戶需求增加
2023/61.027.19136.054.731.492.891.13客戶需求增加
2023/50.953.16105.683.6917.132.721.2客戶需求增加
2023/40.928.5730.652.731.882.281.43-
2023/30.8568.1812.491.81-8.381.812.01-
2023/20.510.28-2.480.96-21.271.32.8-
2023/10.4635.69-35.060.46-35.061.083.37-
2022/120.3418.2-63.475.42-58.160.854.53客戶需求量減少
2022/110.2923.39-71.475.08-57.750.745.21客戶需求減少
2022/100.232.34-79.024.8-56.510.824.75客戶需求減少
2022/90.23-36.88-81.224.57-54.010.993.57客戶需求減少
2022/80.36-11.79-72.664.34-50.251.22.95客戶需求減少
2022/70.41-6.01-68.183.98-46.31.32.71客戶需求減少
2022/60.43-6.59-63.013.58-41.751.61.89客戶需求減少
2022/50.46-34.46-57.973.15-36.761.921.57客戶需求減少
2022/40.71-6.51-34.942.68-30.731.981.53-
2022/30.7545.78-28.691.98-29.11.981.4-
2022/20.52-26.56-28.451.22-29.342.151.29-
2022/10.71-23.67-29.990.71-29.992.631.05-
2021/120.92-7.68-16.012.9620.963.030.83-
2021/111.0-9.24-20.2912.0425.183.310.76-
2021/101.1-8.42-10.0311.0432.023.620.69-
2021/91.2-8.065.379.9339.243.790.7-
2021/81.312.6327.718.7345.713.750.7-
2021/71.289.2633.197.4249.423.540.74-
2021/61.176.1229.246.1453.313.350.78客戶需求增加
2021/51.11.4533.564.9760.313.240.81客戶需求增加
2021/41.082.4552.663.8769.982.870.92客戶需求增加
2021/31.0646.2988.552.7977.832.790.89客戶需求量增加
2021/20.72-28.14137.61.7371.862.830.88客戶需求增加
2021/11.01-8.4143.361.0143.363.360.74-
2020/121.1-12.444.9810.7155.813.580.6客戶需求增加
2020/111.262.4469.419.6157.163.620.59客戶需求增加
2020/101.237.2571.438.3655.473.390.63客戶需求增加
2020/91.1411.4255.357.1353.023.130.7客戶需求增加
2020/81.037.0445.855.9952.582.890.76客戶需求量增加
2020/70.966.0238.584.9754.052.690.82客戶需求增加
2020/60.99.6766.194.0158.272.440.79客戶需求增加
2020/50.8215.9688.523.156.112.10.92客戶需求增加
2020/40.7126.5474.592.2846.971.581.22客戶需求增加
2020/30.5684.3432.151.5737.151.571.22-
2020/20.3-56.64-11.061.0140.11.771.08-
2020/10.7-7.3886.650.786.652.20.87客戶需求增加
2019/120.762.3585.456.88-11.350.0N/A客戶需求量增加
2019/110.743.6669.576.12-16.740.0N/A客戶需求量增加
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.732023/10.462022/10.712021/11.012020/10.7
2024/20.652023/20.52022/20.522021/20.722020/20.3
2024/30.722023/30.852022/30.752021/31.062020/30.56
2024/40.82023/40.922022/40.712021/41.082020/40.71
2024/50.82023/50.952022/50.462021/51.12020/50.82
2024/60.752023/61.022022/60.432021/61.172020/60.9
2024/70.772023/71.22022/70.412021/71.282020/70.96
2024/80.712023/81.022022/80.362021/81.312020/81.03
2024/90.72023/91.032022/90.232021/91.22020/91.14
2024/100.52023/101.02022/100.232021/101.12020/101.23
N/AN/A2023/110.92022/110.292021/111.02020/111.26
N/AN/A2023/120.882022/120.342021/120.922020/121.1
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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