玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.53-8.018.3516.326.064.94N/A-
2024/91.66-5.5121.3814.7726.915.050.48-
2024/81.767.728.3813.1127.645.180.47-
2024/71.63-9.057.111.3527.535.330.46-
2024/61.79-6.0223.849.7231.755.530.48-
2024/51.914.3934.887.9333.685.420.49-
2024/41.838.7436.276.0233.34.50.6-
2024/31.6869.931.554.1932.054.190.62-
2024/20.99-35.1-8.612.5132.383.680.71-
2024/11.5230.7786.761.5286.764.010.65主因112/01月受市場消費性產品需求急凍,致客戶庫存水位過高,為調整庫存,故減少拉貨數量造成基期較低所致。
2023/121.17-11.586.5215.41-7.683.770.6-
2023/111.322.1947.5914.25-8.683.980.57-
2023/101.29-5.6559.612.93-12.094.030.56主因111/10月受市場消費性產品需求急凍,致客戶庫存水位過高,為調整庫存,故減少拉貨數量造成基期較低所致。
2023/91.37-0.0637.2211.64-16.264.260.43-
2023/81.37-10.1431.4910.27-20.394.340.42-
2023/71.525.1622.388.9-24.954.390.42-
2023/61.452.35-18.437.38-30.494.20.41-
2023/51.415.47-26.845.93-32.914.030.43-
2023/41.344.97-25.934.52-34.613.70.46-
2023/31.2818.01-31.923.18-37.73.180.51-
2023/21.0832.64-23.371.9-41.062.990.54-
2023/10.82-25.41-54.880.82-54.882.80.58主因受市場消費性產品需求急凍,致客戶庫存水位過高,為調整庫存,減少拉貨數量及逢春節連假工作天數不足所致。
2022/121.0922.5-38.4416.7-25.522.80.63-
2022/110.8910.5-53.9115.6-24.42.70.65主因受市場消費性產品需求急凍,致客戶庫存水位過高,為調整庫存,故減少拉貨數量所致。
2022/100.81-18.87-58.3314.71-21.342.850.62主因受市場消費性產品需求急凍,致客戶庫存水位過高,為調整庫存,故減少拉貨數量所致。
2022/91.0-4.24-49.6213.9-17.063.280.54-
2022/81.04-16.36-38.6912.9-12.714.060.44-
2022/71.24-29.91-37.3811.86-9.344.950.36-
2022/61.78-8.19-9.5310.62-4.325.520.41-
2022/51.936.77-1.98.84-3.25.620.41-
2022/41.81-3.5-5.656.91-3.555.10.45-
2022/31.8832.835.55.1-2.785.10.46-
2022/21.41-21.89-11.73.22-7.045.00.46-
2022/11.811.76-3.041.81-3.045.520.42-
2021/121.78-8.2825.0822.4220.65.660.4-
2021/111.94-0.0917.4920.6420.235.860.38-
2021/101.94-1.9113.518.720.525.620.4-
2021/91.9816.547.716.7621.395.660.32-
2021/81.7-14.584.8514.7823.495.650.32-
2021/71.991.2522.9813.0826.45.920.3-
2021/61.96-0.4632.4311.127.035.850.33-
2021/51.972.6921.499.1425.935.670.34-
2021/41.927.9113.857.1627.215.30.36-
2021/31.7811.1519.215.2432.925.240.37-
2021/21.6-14.2330.443.4741.254.890.4-
2021/11.8731.2952.061.8752.064.940.4因去(109)年1月適逢農曆春節假期工作天數少,及今(110)年1月客戶需求增加所致。
2020/121.42-13.84-20.8618.59-18.464.780.4-
2020/111.65-3.48-22.8817.17-18.265.20.37-
2020/101.71-6.93-2.8415.52-17.735.160.37-
2020/91.8413.466.6413.81-19.265.070.3-
2020/81.620.19-9.7111.97-22.174.720.32-
2020/71.629.03-10.2310.35-23.814.720.32-
2020/61.48-8.687.458.74-25.884.790.32-
2020/51.62-3.76-8.967.25-30.34.80.32-
2020/41.6912.99-27.185.63-34.714.40.35-
2020/31.4921.63-38.013.95-37.473.950.47-
2020/21.23-0.02-15.72.45-37.144.250.44-
2020/11.23-31.67-49.881.23-49.885.160.36-
2019/121.8-16.0547.0822.8-5.530.0N/A-
2019/112.1421.6-5.2421.0-8.340.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.522023/10.822022/11.812021/11.872020/11.23
2024/20.992023/21.082022/21.412021/21.62020/21.23
2024/31.682023/31.282022/31.882021/31.782020/31.49
2024/41.832023/41.342022/41.812021/41.922020/41.69
2024/51.912023/51.412022/51.932021/51.972020/51.62
2024/61.792023/61.452022/61.782021/61.962020/61.48
2024/71.632023/71.522022/71.242021/71.992020/71.62
2024/81.762023/81.372022/81.042021/81.72020/81.62
2024/91.662023/91.372022/91.02021/91.982020/91.84
2024/101.532023/101.292022/100.812021/101.942020/101.71
N/AN/A2023/111.322022/110.892021/111.942020/111.65
N/AN/A2023/121.172022/121.092021/121.782020/121.42
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季
合約負債 QoQ YoY

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