玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.11643.63-71.522.26-67.980.24N/A出貨減少
2024/100.01-88.23-93.312.16-67.790.36N/ADTV客戶在本月無訂單
2024/90.12-46.93-55.52.26-65.060.680.83客戶變更包裝延遲出貨
2024/80.23-32.63-17.22.14-65.470.670.85客戶延遲出貨
2024/70.34213.854.971.92-67.70.590.97與去年同期持平
2024/60.11-25.34-85.111.58-71.840.431.99客戶變更包裝延遲出貨
2024/50.14-18.65-83.031.48-69.890.382.25物流船運因素,延遲出貨
2024/40.18204.87-78.931.33-67.150.51.71客戶因庫存太高,訂單銳減
2024/30.06-78.01-95.031.16-64.081.160.81客戶品管完成前暫緩出貨
2024/20.26-68.46-73.121.1-46.511.850.51本月工作時數減少所致
2024/10.8310.68-22.220.83-22.221.960.48-
2023/120.75104.16-50.367.82-32.971.330.95材料缺貨
2023/110.3774.47-82.27.06-30.370.851.49出貨減少
2023/100.21-21.62-78.066.69-17.040.761.68客戶訂單延後出貨
2023/90.27-1.25-77.746.48-8.750.860.68客戶訂單延後
2023/80.27-14.58-87.726.215.441.310.45客戶訂單延後出貨
2023/70.32-55.5-67.25.9462.091.890.31本期營收減少為客戶訂單延後出貨所致
2023/60.72-14.9103.15.62109.052.40.4疫情減緩
2023/50.851.0126.974.9109.952.850.34疫後陸續出貨
2023/40.84-28.1463.74.05143.092.980.32疫情及材料延遲交貨等狀況減緩,產品陸續完成出貨
2023/31.1718.99526.013.22178.23.220.58疫情及材料延遲交貨等狀況減緩,產品陸續完成出貨
2023/20.98-8.72950.522.05111.483.570.52疫情及材料延遲交貨等狀況減緩,產品陸續完成出貨
2023/11.07-29.3622.311.0722.314.670.4-
2022/121.52-26.82128.1811.6612.084.560.57疫情及材料延遲交貨等狀況減緩,產品陸續完成出貨
2022/112.08115.12100.6110.154.154.250.61疫情減緩
2022/100.96-20.4635.888.07-7.34.410.59-
2022/91.21-45.5577.487.11-11.144.420.7疫情減緩及材料延遲狀況減緩
2022/82.23128.2135.245.89-19.423.560.867月份船班影響延至8月份出貨及材料缺料減緩
2022/70.98175.56-16.273.66-42.432.01.54-
2022/60.35-46.8-54.352.69-48.31.531.99受到船班倉位不足影響出貨
2022/50.6730.23-21.632.33-47.231.362.24-
2022/40.51174.77-7.431.67-53.320.793.86因缺料持續影響所致
2022/30.1999.68-81.761.16-61.721.161.38因缺料所致
2022/20.09-89.37-90.790.97-51.491.640.97因缺料所致
2022/10.8831.76-11.260.88-11.262.580.62-
2021/120.67-35.66-36.1710.412.672.410.79因缺料致銷貨減少
2021/111.0345.7131.559.747.132.430.78-
2021/100.713.88-39.468.714.812.340.81-
2021/90.68-27.83210.388.012.12.80.87去年同期受新冠肺炎影響
2021/80.95-18.78103.367.315.782.890.84去年同期受新冠肺炎影響
2021/71.1750.2152.826.37-1.262.790.87去年同期受新冠肺炎影響
2021/60.78-8.6684.365.2-8.522.181.49去年同期受新冠肺炎影響
2021/50.8553.82-29.784.42-15.952.431.33-
2021/40.55-46.1-64.513.57-11.822.591.25原材料IC交期拉長,加上部分客戶受到新冠肺炎疫情影響,海運費漲價及船期不確定性,致出貨減少
2021/31.031.289.173.0221.043.030.92-
2021/21.012.4230.082.028.483.040.91客戶訂單陸續出貨
2021/10.99-5.23-20.950.99-20.952.820.99疫情影響,出貨減少所致
2020/121.0432.61-34.5210.13-53.083.00.82受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/110.79-32.95-60.389.09-54.562.181.13受疫情影響出貨減少
2020/101.17432.6835.068.31-53.921.861.32因疫情影響客戶延後交貨之訂單本月陸續出貨
2020/90.22-52.71-85.67.13-58.421.451.82受疫情影響出貨減少
2020/80.47-38.96-62.276.91-55.761.651.6本期受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/70.7681.22-17.576.45-55.212.391.1本期受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/60.42-65.21-76.065.68-57.793.190.57本期受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/51.21-22.25-48.185.26-55.053.710.49本期受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/41.5665.81-21.74.05-56.762.80.65本期受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/30.94206.21-72.082.5-66.22.50.72本期受疫情影響出貨減少所致
2020/20.31-75.47-56.421.56-61.283.150.57本期受疫情影響致工作天數減少影響出貨所致
2020/11.25-21.5-62.311.25-62.310.0N/A本期工作天數減少以及客戶訂單減少所致
2019/121.59-19.76-36.5121.6-8.450.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.832023/11.072022/10.882021/10.992020/11.25
2024/20.262023/20.982022/20.092021/21.012020/20.31
2024/30.062023/31.172022/30.192021/31.032020/30.94
2024/40.182023/40.842022/40.512021/40.552020/41.56
2024/50.142023/50.852022/50.672021/50.852020/51.21
2024/60.112023/60.722022/60.352021/60.782020/60.42
2024/70.342023/70.322022/70.982021/71.172020/70.76
2024/80.232023/80.272022/82.232021/80.952020/80.47
2024/90.122023/90.272022/91.212021/90.682020/90.22
2024/100.012023/100.212022/100.962021/100.712020/101.17
2024/110.112023/110.372022/112.082021/111.032020/110.79
N/AN/A2023/120.752022/121.522021/120.672020/121.04
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.65%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.04-20.00.0
24Q2 (19)0.05-73.68-37.5
24Q1 (18)0.19111.11137.5
23Q4 (17)0.09125.012.5
23Q3 (16)0.04-50.0-77.78
23Q2 (15)0.080.0-42.86
23Q1 (14)0.080.033.33
22Q4 (13)0.08-55.5660.0
22Q3 (12)0.1828.57260.0
22Q2 (11)0.14133.337.69
22Q1 (10)0.0620.0-66.67
21Q4 (9)0.050.0-85.29
21Q3 (8)0.05-61.54-54.55
21Q2 (7)0.13-27.78160.0
21Q1 (6)0.18-47.06260.0
20Q4 (5)0.34209.09161.54
20Q3 (4)0.11120.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.050.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.05-61.540.0
19Q4 (1)0.130.00.0

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