玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.815.93-26.2110.69-10.082.28N/A-
2024/100.778.85-14.619.88-8.442.0N/A-
2024/90.731.76-37.059.11-7.882.295.51-
2024/80.53-49.29-50.248.41-4.162.984.23景氣衰退
2024/71.05-24.66-7.237.882.243.323.8-
2024/61.461.1512.546.823.883.692.72-
2024/50.87-39.31-35.175.431.863.832.63-
2024/41.43-6.7520.314.5614.263.852.61-
2024/31.5372.834.673.1311.713.133.3-
2024/20.8924.0213.981.6-3.952.673.88-
2024/10.71-32.87-19.640.71-19.642.883.59-
2023/121.06-3.09-23.9512.95-19.593.063.3-
2023/111.122.595.5111.89-19.173.113.25-
2023/100.9-19.75-34.6310.79-21.063.093.28-
2023/91.124.15-20.939.89-19.543.322.69-
2023/81.07-5.46-16.698.78-19.363.452.59-
2023/71.13-8.6-9.367.7-19.723.712.41-
2023/61.24-7.16-20.026.57-21.273.762.45-
2023/51.3412.616.635.33-21.563.662.52-
2023/41.194.36-15.043.99-27.943.12.98-
2023/31.1446.25-30.442.8-32.292.83.43-
2023/20.78-12.56-30.731.67-33.513.073.14-
2023/10.89-36.47-35.760.89-35.763.332.89-
2022/121.434.45-11.116.110.043.812.56-
2022/111.04-24.05-22.2214.711.253.822.55-
2022/101.37-2.93-2.3613.673.644.072.4-
2022/91.419.74-6.0512.34.353.952.57-
2022/81.292.846.610.885.884.092.48-
2022/71.25-19.35-15.679.65.784.062.5-
2022/61.5523.7720.268.349.984.22.42-
2022/51.25-10.27-24.096.797.874.292.37-
2022/41.4-14.5421.985.5419.244.162.45-
2022/31.6445.63-8.814.1418.344.142.48-
2022/21.12-18.920.922.5146.884.082.52-
2022/11.38-12.0877.831.3877.834.32.39接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/121.5717.62-4.1116.144.124.322.34-
2021/111.34-4.6422.6314.5352.444.252.38接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/101.4-6.6146.1213.1956.294.112.46接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/91.524.5312.4411.7857.64.192.3接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/81.21-18.6457.910.2867.443.982.43接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/71.4815.0170.549.0768.794.432.18接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/61.29-21.8839.97.5968.464.092.19接單回溫,機械產業景氣復甦
2021/51.6544.1955.226.375.814.591.95接單回溫,機械產業景氣持續復甦
2021/41.15-36.1254.914.6584.513.872.32接單回溫,機械產業景氣持續復甦
2021/31.7993.14157.183.596.823.52.55接單回溫,機械產業景氣逐步復甦
2021/20.9319.26201.761.7157.893.352.67去年因新冠肺炎疫情影響訂單而延後出貨所致。
2021/10.78-52.590.650.780.653.512.55-
2020/121.6450.43-1.7411.17-19.093.692.28-
2020/111.0913.613.469.53-21.473.392.49-
2020/100.96-28.13-17.198.44-23.853.062.75-
2020/91.3474.8826.917.48-24.632.973.03-
2020/80.76-12.13-26.786.14-30.752.563.52-
2020/70.87-5.64-21.05.37-31.282.863.15-
2020/60.92-13.33-32.874.5-32.972.733.35-
2020/51.0643.91-12.383.58-33.02.53.66-
2020/40.746.04-41.782.52-39.061.745.24-
2020/30.7126.62-42.851.78-37.851.785.3-
2020/20.31-60.21-63.731.08-34.132.753.42工具機產業先前面臨美中貿易戰的衝擊,現在又有新冠肺炎疫情影響訂單而延後出貨所致。
2020/10.77-53.72-2.450.77-2.450.0N/A-
2019/121.6758.3910.2813.81-32.910.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.712023/10.892022/11.382021/10.782020/10.77
2024/20.892023/20.782022/21.122021/20.932020/20.31
2024/31.532023/31.142022/31.642021/31.792020/30.7
2024/41.432023/41.192022/41.42021/41.152020/40.74
2024/50.872023/51.342022/51.252021/51.652020/51.06
2024/61.42023/61.242022/61.552021/61.292020/60.92
2024/71.052023/71.132022/71.252021/71.482020/70.87
2024/80.532023/81.072022/81.292021/81.212020/80.76
2024/90.72023/91.122022/91.412021/91.52020/91.34
2024/100.772023/100.92022/101.372021/101.42020/100.96
2024/110.812023/111.12022/111.042021/111.342020/111.09
N/AN/A2023/121.062022/121.42021/121.572020/121.64
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.37%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.5-38.27-53.7
24Q2 (19)0.8119.12-7.95
24Q1 (18)0.680.0-17.07
23Q4 (17)0.68-37.040.0
23Q3 (16)1.0822.7336.71
23Q2 (15)0.887.32-5.38
23Q1 (14)0.8220.590.0
22Q4 (13)0.68-13.92-31.31
22Q3 (12)0.79-15.05-40.15
22Q2 (11)0.9313.41-3.12
22Q1 (10)0.82-17.17-9.89
21Q4 (9)0.99-25.0110.64
21Q3 (8)1.3237.5140.0
21Q2 (7)0.965.4974.55
21Q1 (6)0.9193.6278.43
20Q4 (5)0.47-14.5542.42
20Q3 (4)0.550.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.557.840.0
20Q1 (2)0.5154.550.0
19Q4 (1)0.330.00.0

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