玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.83-24.9574.757.3154.782.81N/A原因:子公司合併營收增加所致
2024/101.126.16222.996.4852.562.6N/A原因:客戶訂單增加及子公司合併營收增加所致
2024/90.8739.74125.245.3837.652.0919.88客戶訂單增加及子公司合併營收增加所致
2024/80.636.3335.024.527.981.7723.4-
2024/70.595.0874.833.8826.911.823.11原因:客戶訂單回流所致
2024/60.56-13.677.183.2920.971.7714.56客戶訂單回流所致
2024/50.6516.3891.322.7313.571.8214.14客戶訂單回流所致
2024/40.56-9.0845.182.080.791.4917.2-
2024/30.6188.6918.981.52-9.341.5215.17-
2024/20.32-44.41-53.390.91-21.881.3616.98超過50%原因:主要是去年同期有營建收入及本期工作天數減少所致
2024/10.5829.6125.140.5825.141.5115.3-
2023/120.45-4.88-33.535.17-41.761.2717.61-
2023/110.4738.7-10.824.72-42.441.218.52-
2023/100.34-12.01-42.544.25-44.631.1918.68-
2023/90.39-16.22-42.543.91-44.811.1918.07-
2023/80.4637.68-29.043.52-45.051.1219.24-
2023/70.346.49-55.093.05-46.870.9921.66客戶去化庫存,致訂單減少所致。
2023/60.32-6.7-56.092.72-45.631.0419.97客戶去化庫存,致訂單減少所致。
2023/50.34-11.68-57.112.4-43.871.2416.76客戶去化庫存,致訂單減少所致。
2023/40.38-25.49-57.852.06-40.881.613.0客戶去化庫存,致訂單減少所致。
2023/30.51-26.09-48.381.68-34.881.6811.63-
2023/20.749.25-4.451.16-26.361.8410.6-
2023/10.47-31.16-45.140.47-45.141.6811.64-
2022/120.6827.62-19.988.8825.71.810.49-
2022/110.53-10.63-7.238.231.931.810.5-
2022/100.59-12.0218.527.6735.91.929.84-
2022/90.683.46-18.537.0837.62.088.64-
2022/80.65-12.86-25.226.448.392.128.46-
2022/70.754.11-6.745.7567.092.267.95合併子公司信立、斐成營收所致
2022/60.72-8.86148.445.089.612.425.25合併子公司信立、斐成營收所致
2022/50.79-13.248.484.2882.342.74.71合併子公司信立、斐成營收所致
2022/40.91-8.7439.793.4992.272.644.82合併子公司信立、斐成營收所致
2022/31.036.7996.342.58121.662.584.03疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2022/20.73-14.3149.531.58141.32.434.28疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2022/10.850.4134.670.85134.672.274.57疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2021/120.8547.96174.477.0797.351.925.33疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2021/110.5714.18109.756.2290.071.95.38疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2021/100.5-39.52177.535.6488.282.24.65疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2021/90.83-5.03200.865.1482.552.513.43疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2021/80.878.66127.174.3169.721.974.37疫情趨緩訂單回流所致,及合併子公司信立、斐成營收
2021/70.8177.37508.763.4459.481.635.28疫情趨緩訂單回流及合併子公司信立營收所致
2021/60.29-45.53213.72.6430.181.475.3訂單回流所致
2021/50.53-18.28509.942.3521.41.694.62訂單回流所致
2021/40.6528.16543.781.81-1.681.455.38主要是增加營建收入及訂單回流所致
2021/30.5173.85-52.391.16-33.321.166.54因去年同月有營建收入所致
2021/20.29-19.41-24.490.65-3.240.967.9-
2021/10.3617.4325.120.3625.120.948.06-
2020/120.3113.07-90.133.58-55.450.767.99月差異:營建收入減少所致。年差異:受新冠病毒疫情影響,下游客戶訂單及交貨減少所致及營建收入減少所致。
2020/110.2751.08-41.843.27-33.30.738.35-
2020/100.18-34.44-59.823.0-32.390.847.24受新冠病毒疫情影響,下游客戶訂單及交貨延遲所致
2020/90.28-28.29-64.572.82-29.30.796.55因去年同月有營建收入所致
2020/80.38191.28.362.54-20.740.618.52-
2020/70.1342.93-63.472.16-24.360.3116.65受新冠病毒疫情影響,下游客戶訂單及交貨延遲所致
2020/60.095.9-74.22.02-18.680.2818.91受新冠病毒疫情影響,下游客戶訂單及交貨延遲所致
2020/50.09-13.75-80.061.93-9.351.264.23受新冠病毒疫情影響,下游客戶訂單及交貨延遲所致
2020/40.1-90.52-77.41.858.91.563.41受新冠病毒疫情影響,下游客戶訂單及交貨延遲所致
2020/31.07175.75139.01.7439.91.742.99主要是增加營建收入
2020/20.3933.5424.720.68-15.43.811.37-
2020/10.29-90.74-40.820.29-40.820.0N/A-
2019/123.13566.87548.178.0445.990.0N/A主要是增加營建收入
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.582023/10.472022/10.852021/10.362020/10.29
2024/20.322023/20.72022/20.732021/20.292020/20.39
2024/30.612023/30.512022/31.02021/30.512020/31.07
2024/40.562023/40.382022/40.912021/40.652020/40.1
2024/50.652023/50.342022/50.792021/50.532020/50.09
2024/60.562023/60.322022/60.722021/60.292020/60.09
2024/70.592023/70.342022/70.752021/70.82020/70.13
2024/80.632023/80.462022/80.652021/80.872020/80.38
2024/90.872023/90.392022/90.682021/90.832020/90.28
2024/101.12023/100.342022/100.592021/100.52020/100.18
2024/110.832023/110.472022/110.532021/110.572020/110.27
N/AN/A2023/120.452022/120.682021/120.852020/120.31
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 18.27%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)3.248.3650.7
24Q2 (19)2.9920.0857.37
24Q1 (18)2.495.0659.62
23Q4 (17)2.3710.2371.74
23Q3 (16)2.1513.1666.67
23Q2 (15)1.921.7963.79
23Q1 (14)1.5613.0440.54
22Q4 (13)1.386.9832.69
22Q3 (12)1.2911.2124.04
22Q2 (11)1.164.534.88
22Q1 (10)1.116.7329.07
21Q4 (9)1.040.042.47
21Q3 (8)1.0420.9360.0
21Q2 (7)0.860.0115.0
21Q1 (6)0.8617.810
20Q4 (5)0.7312.3178.05
20Q3 (4)0.6562.50.0
20Q2 (3)0.400.0

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