玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.58-8.4217.2915.317.834.81N/A-
2024/91.7315.9119.4413.726.834.820.29-
2024/81.49-6.86-9.3411.995.234.670.3-
2024/71.61.736.8210.57.694.660.31-
2024/61.576.49-9.718.97.854.620.29-
2024/51.48-5.7126.17.3212.564.940.27-
2024/41.57-17.0512.255.859.584.860.27-
2024/31.8934.65-2.04.288.644.280.26-
2024/21.442.94-6.342.3918.863.620.31-
2024/10.98-20.2893.220.9893.223.680.31因去年同期適逢春節,配合假期調整出貨時程,致營收相較減少。
2023/121.23-15.7512.9216.8921.134.050.23-
2023/111.468.3314.7815.6621.834.260.22-
2023/101.35-6.74-10.6214.1922.614.440.21-
2023/91.45-12.022.3312.8427.64.590.18-
2023/81.659.7441.311.431.734.890.17-
2023/71.5-14.0142.49.7530.244.420.19-
2023/61.7448.7363.38.2528.254.310.2本月營收增加,主要係因5月出口中國大陸的部分產品,因海關查驗時間較長,延至本月進行銷售,致大陸子公司本月營收相對增加。
2023/51.17-16.075.596.5121.274.50.19-
2023/41.4-27.5836.35.3325.374.830.18-
2023/31.9328.6887.653.9421.93.940.19市場需求增加
2023/21.5194.9333.792.01-8.83.10.25-
2023/10.51-53.41-52.960.51-52.962.870.26因今年1月份適逢春節,配合假期調整出貨時程,以致營收減少。
2022/121.09-14.36-15.9713.9434.843.880.19-
2022/111.27-15.64587.6912.8542.154.20.18因去年大陸子公司告知配合海關作業延遲進貨,以致去年營收減少,本期已無此情況。
2022/101.516.7611.5311.5830.734.090.18-
2022/91.4121.4753.3510.0734.23.630.21大陸市場需求增加
2022/81.1610.5934.468.6531.513.290.23-
2022/71.05-1.3945.157.4931.063.230.24-
2022/61.07-3.8241.216.4329.013.20.22-
2022/51.118.3475.525.3726.833.160.22大陸市場需求增加
2022/41.03-0.311.144.2518.273.170.22-
2022/31.03-8.252.543.2320.733.230.17-
2022/21.123.6747.242.231.633.50.16-
2022/11.08-16.7718.61.0818.62.560.22-
2021/121.3600.9162.4310.3420.82.840.19因11月大陸子公司告知配合海關作業而延遲進貨,12月已回復正常出貨,且11月的客戶需求於12月反應
2021/110.19-86.31-77.799.0416.512.460.22大陸子公司告知因配合海關作業延遲進貨,11月底起已回復正常出貨。
2021/101.3546.7943.588.8627.883.140.17-
2021/90.926.51-22.67.525.412.510.21-
2021/80.8719.38-0.756.5837.362.350.23-
2021/70.73-4.0630.615.7145.862.110.25-
2021/60.7619.5311.924.9948.382.310.18-
2021/50.63-31.39-16.984.2357.552.560.16大陸市場需求強勁
2021/40.92-8.017.213.687.12.690.16大陸市場比去年同期需求強勁
2021/31.031.73168.052.68151.792.680.12大陸市場需求強勁
2021/20.76-16.48110.461.6749.792.320.14年節過後,客戶補貨需求大增
2021/10.9141.7420.730.9120.733.050.11-
2020/120.64-56.87-5.528.5626.152.570.1-
2020/111.49242.24108.637.9229.692.590.1代理商調節出貨
2020/100.44-34.69-44.16.4219.222.030.12-
2020/90.67-28.09-25.525.9929.932.640.12-
2020/80.93-11.48104.495.3243.32.740.12代理商調節
2020/71.0537.99240.554.3934.792.410.14代理商調節出貨
2020/60.7625.5840.963.3513.342.280.18-
2020/50.6-33.87-6.672.597.171.870.21-
2020/40.91162.2640.391.9812.251.540.26-
2020/30.3524.8-24.571.07-4.191.070.38-
2020/20.28-36.35436.450.7210.251.40.29代理商調節出貨
2020/10.44-35.49-26.770.44-26.771.830.22代理商調節出貨
2019/120.68-4.7549.996.78123.10.0N/A代理商調節出貨
2019/110.71-8.31162.486.1135.920.0N/A代理商調節出貨
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.982023/10.512022/11.082021/10.912020/10.44
2024/21.42023/21.52022/21.122021/20.762020/20.28
2024/31.892023/31.932022/31.032021/31.02020/30.35
2024/41.572023/41.42022/41.032021/40.922020/40.91
2024/51.482023/51.172022/51.112021/50.632020/50.6
2024/61.572023/61.742022/61.072021/60.762020/60.76
2024/71.62023/71.52022/71.052021/70.732020/71.05
2024/81.492023/81.652022/81.162021/80.872020/80.93
2024/91.732023/91.452022/91.412021/90.922020/90.67
2024/101.582023/101.352022/101.512021/101.352020/100.44
N/AN/A2023/111.462022/111.272021/110.192020/111.49
N/AN/A2023/121.232022/121.092021/121.32020/120.64
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 10.47%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.57-45.19-69.35
24Q2 (19)1.04-31.13-43.17
24Q1 (18)1.51-25.6219.84
23Q4 (17)2.039.14238.33
23Q3 (16)1.861.6466.07
23Q2 (15)1.8345.2486.73
23Q1 (14)1.26110.06.78
22Q4 (13)0.6-46.43-51.22
22Q3 (12)1.1214.29-34.88
22Q2 (11)0.98-16.95-38.75
22Q1 (10)1.18-4.07-11.28
21Q4 (9)1.23-28.499.82
21Q3 (8)1.727.5230.77
21Q2 (7)1.620.379.78
21Q1 (6)1.3318.75155.77
20Q4 (5)1.12115.38-29.11
20Q3 (4)0.52-41.570.0
20Q2 (3)0.8971.150.0
20Q1 (2)0.52-67.090.0
19Q4 (1)1.580.00.0

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