玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/105.2421.73-3.8659.34-1.4615.71N/A-
2024/94.3-30.32-27.5154.11-1.2217.350.39-
2024/86.17-10.27-9.1149.811.9619.130.35-
2024/76.8813.1812.7743.633.7519.060.35-
2024/66.08-0.3819.1536.752.2219.00.38-
2024/56.1-10.59-4.8830.68-0.5718.970.38-
2024/46.8212.9112.024.580.5617.40.41-
2024/36.0433.24-10.2517.75-3.2317.750.42-
2024/24.54-36.76-24.4311.710.8317.680.42-
2024/17.1720.0127.867.1727.8619.620.38-
2023/125.98-7.69-11.6172.67-9.5817.90.41-
2023/116.4718.89-16.0166.7-9.3917.850.41-
2023/105.45-8.21-34.5760.22-8.6118.170.41-
2023/95.93-12.63-14.2954.78-4.8618.820.45-
2023/86.7911.33-5.948.84-3.5717.990.47-
2023/76.119.58-8.7342.05-3.1917.620.48-
2023/65.1-20.48-5.135.95-2.1817.610.49-
2023/56.415.28-3.3230.85-1.6819.240.45-
2023/46.09-9.52-7.4224.44-1.2418.830.46-
2023/36.7312.196.1718.350.9918.350.51-
2023/26.06.9922.9511.61-1.7818.370.51-
2023/15.61-17.03-19.175.61-19.1720.080.47-
2022/126.76-12.2930.1780.3740.4122.790.48-
2022/117.71-7.3730.7173.6141.4322.960.48-
2022/108.3220.2380.4465.942.822.460.49主係越南境內機車客戶大幅上調組車計劃,新增外銷休閒車輛及健康事業產品亦大幅出貨所致。
2022/96.92-4.0762.7757.5838.6220.820.47主係2021年9月越南受COVID-19影響有停產之情形,而2022年9月無此情況所致。
2022/87.227.9764.850.6635.8719.280.5主係2021年8月越南受COVID-19影響有停產之情形,而2022年8月無此情況所致。
2022/76.6824.3431.0843.4432.0218.690.52-
2022/65.37-18.993.9536.7632.1918.590.64-
2022/56.640.8237.3631.3838.6419.560.61-
2022/46.583.7642.2324.7538.9917.810.67-
2022/36.3429.9229.1718.1637.8518.160.67-
2022/24.88-29.6643.4911.8243.017.020.71-
2022/16.9433.6242.666.9442.6618.030.67-
2021/125.19-11.936.5457.2422.8615.70.82-
2021/115.927.8539.6952.0524.7614.760.87-
2021/104.618.4515.8546.1523.0813.240.97-
2021/94.25-2.873.6641.5423.9413.730.81-
2021/84.38-14.11-2.8737.2826.7714.650.76-
2021/75.1-1.3814.7832.932.1415.10.74-
2021/65.177.0260.327.835.9114.630.58去年因疫情(COVID-19)影響,導致營收大幅滑落,而本期無此情形。
2021/54.834.454.8122.6331.3414.370.6去年因疫情(COVID-19)影響,導致營收大幅滑落,而本期無此情形。
2021/44.63-5.76212.0417.826.1512.940.66去年因疫情(COVID-19)影響,導致營收大幅滑落,而本期無此情形。
2021/34.9144.3210.2713.184.3313.180.55-
2021/23.4-30.06-0.248.271.0913.140.56-
2021/14.86-0.212.064.862.0613.960.52-
2020/124.8815.477.0146.59-11.6513.080.45-
2020/114.226.031.9241.71-13.4212.310.48-
2020/103.98-2.95-10.137.49-14.8612.590.47-
2020/94.1-9.0-1.7533.51-15.3913.050.41-
2020/84.511.49-2.0329.41-17.012.180.44-
2020/74.4437.715.0124.9-19.2310.790.5-
2020/63.233.36-18.0820.46-23.097.830.73-
2020/53.12110.43-36.2217.23-23.969.060.63-
2020/41.48-66.69-66.0114.11-20.599.350.61因疫情(COVID-19)影響,導致營收隨客戶關廠而大幅滑落。
2020/34.4530.54-4.812.63-5.8112.630.46-
2020/23.41-28.4415.918.18-6.3512.730.46-
2020/14.774.63-17.674.77-17.6713.460.43-
2019/124.569.983.2552.7414.280.0N/A-
2019/114.14-6.47-9.5848.1815.450.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/17.172023/15.612022/16.942021/14.862020/14.77
2024/24.542023/26.02022/24.882021/23.42020/23.41
2024/36.042023/36.732022/36.342021/34.912020/34.45
2024/46.822023/46.092022/46.582021/44.632020/41.48
2024/56.12023/56.412022/56.642021/54.832020/53.12
2024/66.082023/65.12022/65.372021/65.172020/63.23
2024/76.882023/76.12022/76.682021/75.12020/74.44
2024/86.172023/86.792022/87.222021/84.382020/84.51
2024/94.32023/95.932022/96.922021/94.252020/94.1
2024/105.242023/105.452022/108.322021/104.612020/103.98
N/AN/A2023/116.472022/117.712021/115.92020/114.22
N/AN/A2023/125.982022/126.762021/125.192020/124.88
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 17.11%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.1613.730.0
24Q2 (19)1.0239.73108.16
24Q1 (18)0.7325.86-26.26
23Q4 (17)0.58-50.0107.14
23Q3 (16)1.16136.73792.31
23Q2 (15)0.49-50.51-38.75
23Q1 (14)0.99253.5735.62
22Q4 (13)0.28115.38-60.0
22Q3 (12)0.13-83.75-85.39
22Q2 (11)0.89.59-4.76
22Q1 (10)0.734.29-10.98
21Q4 (9)0.7-21.35-18.6
21Q3 (8)0.895.95-11.88
21Q2 (7)0.842.443.7
21Q1 (6)0.82-4.6554.72
20Q4 (5)0.86-14.85120.51
20Q3 (4)1.0124.690.0
20Q2 (3)0.8152.830.0
20Q1 (2)0.5335.90.0
19Q4 (1)0.390.00.0

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