玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.2-13.5417.899.34-60.983.63N/A淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/91.3934.027.538.13-64.493.211.8淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/81.0432.56-26.986.74-68.82.732.11淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/70.78-14.19-45.425.7-71.752.622.21淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/60.91-0.92-46.014.92-73.762.572.07淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/50.9224.73-70.44.01-76.512.372.25淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/40.744.56-77.223.09-77.872.072.58淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/30.7113.08-81.242.35-78.072.352.38淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/20.62-38.58-81.611.64-76.352.532.21淡季及客戶需求調整
2024/11.0214.84-71.311.02-71.312.492.24淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/120.8951.64-75.6325.39-24.852.492.44淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/110.58-42.77-83.3424.51-18.732.92.09淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/101.02-21.14-71.9723.92-10.233.741.62淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/91.29-9.0-68.1122.9-0.464.151.56淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/81.42-0.9-60.5721.6114.014.551.42淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/71.43-15.11-52.6120.1931.546.241.04淡季及客戶需求調整
2023/61.69-45.69-8.518.7552.228.050.99去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2023/53.11-3.9843.9217.0662.9410.120.78去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2023/43.24-13.9255.4713.9567.8910.410.76去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2023/33.7710.8846.8510.7172.0510.711.03去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2023/23.4-4.1885.466.9489.7110.581.05去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2023/13.55-2.4493.963.5593.9610.681.04去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2022/123.633.6428.4133.7935.610.781.12-
2022/113.51-3.6865.5130.1636.5211.21.08去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2022/103.64-10.29168.1726.6533.4411.31.07去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2022/94.0612.51165.9523.0123.6210.691.07去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2022/83.6119.08110.2318.9510.918.481.35去年基期低,且缺料問題趨緩,故營收較去年同期大幅上升
2022/73.0363.943.4815.35-0.167.041.62-
2022/61.85-14.57-22.4812.32-7.116.12.09-
2022/52.163.7218.3510.47-3.746.811.87-
2022/42.09-18.72.488.31-8.26.481.96-
2022/32.5640.04-20.86.22-11.36.221.59-
2022/21.830.2-15.613.66-3.156.111.62-
2022/11.83-25.3713.651.8313.656.391.55-
2021/122.4515.62-36.3924.54-25.445.921.48-
2021/112.1256.05-18.9722.09-23.995.01.75-
2021/101.36-11.03-60.719.97-24.484.61.91.去年基期較高,因上半年受疫情影響致出貨未能滿足客戶需求,為補足上半年短交營業額大幅提升2.因受上游原材料短缺影響致營收減少
2021/91.53-11.05-61.4818.61-19.045.351.811.去年基期較高,因上半年受疫情影響致出貨未能滿足客戶需求,為補足上半年短交營業額大幅提升2.因受上游原材料短缺影響致營收減少
2021/81.72-18.72-55.2817.09-10.216.211.56主要是受缺料影響致營收減少。
2021/72.11-11.45-41.515.371.166.321.53-
2021/62.3830.425.3213.2614.446.251.36-
2021/51.83-10.18-31.6910.8816.667.11.19-
2021/42.03-37.171.939.0536.117.441.14-
2021/33.2449.23132.537.0250.777.021.1去年同期因受新冠肺炎疫情影響,致營收減少,今年同期已恢復正常出貨。
2021/22.1734.9684.53.7815.857.631.01去年同期因受新冠肺炎疫情影響,致營收減少,今年同期已恢復正常出貨。
2021/11.61-58.23-22.871.61-22.878.070.95-
2020/123.8547.2941.9932.91-2.999.920.71-
2020/112.61-24.323.229.06-6.910.030.7-
2020/103.45-12.8236.3826.45-9.111.250.63-
2020/93.963.2720.4722.99-13.4311.410.77-
2020/83.846.3111.2119.03-18.239.710.9-
2020/73.6159.430.1615.2-23.358.551.02-
2020/62.26-15.41-28.6111.59-28.576.931.35-
2020/52.6834.03-12.379.33-28.566.061.54-
2020/42.043.3-18.736.65-33.54.562.04-
2020/31.3918.41-51.914.65-38.314.651.48因受新冠肺炎疫情的影響,大陸工廠復工展延,致營收減少。
2020/21.18-43.58-7.343.26-29.845.971.16-
2020/12.09-23.11-38.32.09-38.36.921.0-
2019/122.7127.818.4833.935.950.0N/A-
2019/112.12-16.21-38.4731.224.990.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.022023/13.552022/11.832021/11.612020/12.09
2024/20.622023/23.42022/21.832021/22.172020/21.18
2024/30.712023/33.772022/32.562021/33.242020/31.39
2024/40.742023/43.242022/42.092021/42.032020/42.0
2024/50.922023/53.112022/52.162021/51.832020/52.68
2024/60.912023/61.692022/61.852021/62.382020/62.26
2024/70.782023/71.432022/73.032021/72.112020/73.61
2024/81.042023/81.422022/83.612021/81.722020/83.84
2024/91.392023/91.292022/94.062021/91.532020/93.96
2024/101.22023/101.022022/103.642021/101.362020/103.45
N/AN/A2023/110.582022/113.512021/112.122020/112.61
N/AN/A2023/120.892022/123.632021/122.452020/123.85
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.6%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.217.6511.11
24Q2 (19)0.17-5.56-10.53
24Q1 (18)0.180.0-5.26
23Q4 (17)0.180.00.0
23Q3 (16)0.18-5.260
23Q2 (15)0.190.00
23Q1 (14)0.195.560
22Q4 (13)0.1800

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