玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.12-17.92-47.3719.383.635.31N/A-
2024/91.36-51.76.6118.2610.186.131.03-
2024/82.8245.492.3916.8910.488.60.74客戶需求增加
2024/71.94-49.2623.9914.071.788.740.73-
2024/63.8329.1420.6912.13-1.058.610.72-
2024/52.9663.1694.918.3-8.656.310.98客戶需求增加
2024/41.8219.18-5.255.33-29.484.511.38-
2024/31.5230.87-37.413.52-37.713.522.13-
2024/21.1641.03-39.481.99-37.943.552.11-
2024/10.83-46.97-35.630.83-35.634.031.86-
2023/121.56-5.45-56.521.9-44.45.331.19客戶需求減少
2023/111.65-22.57-44.920.34-43.195.051.25-
2023/102.1366.28-53.0318.7-43.044.881.3客戶需求減少
2023/91.28-12.84-68.9516.57-41.434.311.53客戶需求減少
2023/81.47-6.28-69.5615.29-36.746.211.07客戶需求減少
2023/71.57-50.61-54.1613.82-28.566.261.06客戶需求減少
2023/63.17108.56-17.3912.25-23.076.610.84-
2023/51.52-20.68-53.389.08-24.875.870.94客戶需求減少
2023/41.92-21.27-37.057.56-14.346.280.88-
2023/32.4426.5439.935.64-2.375.641.1-
2023/21.9250.018.893.21-20.66.790.91-
2023/11.28-64.17-43.541.28-43.547.850.79-
2022/123.5819.77-25.3339.393.8211.10.58-
2022/112.99-34.0-15.1135.818.0411.640.55-
2022/104.539.9314.5232.8210.7913.480.48-
2022/94.12-14.554.5128.2910.2212.360.75-
2022/84.8241.1366.6924.1711.2612.080.77客戶需求增加
2022/73.42-11.03.8219.352.7410.520.88-
2022/63.8417.6926.4215.932.5110.150.97-
2022/53.267.0910.6512.09-3.298.051.23-
2022/43.0575.039.798.83-7.66.561.51-
2022/31.74-1.53-19.945.78-14.725.781.53-
2022/21.77-22.21-16.964.04-12.258.841.0-
2022/12.27-52.61-8.22.27-8.210.590.84-
2021/124.836.1516.8337.9424.2112.270.6-
2021/113.52-10.957.0733.1525.3611.420.65-
2021/103.960.3147.5729.6227.9610.790.69-
2021/93.9436.2818.3525.6725.3910.130.99-
2021/82.89-12.09-7.7321.7326.769.221.09-
2021/73.298.3711.0218.8334.499.281.09-
2021/63.043.010.6115.5440.88.761.08-
2021/52.956.2630.5812.555.937.91.2主要係因客戶需求增加
2021/42.7727.6164.439.5565.867.081.34主要係客戶需求增加
2021/32.172.1336.796.7866.466.781.15主要係客戶需求增加
2021/22.13-14.02133.044.685.458.710.9客戶需求增加
2021/12.48-39.6857.752.4857.759.870.79主要係因客戶需求增加
2020/124.1124.78-6.5230.55-32.910.080.64-
2020/113.2922.72-12.5626.44-35.729.30.69-
2020/102.68-19.54-29.8223.15-38.059.150.7-
2020/93.336.24-24.9320.47-38.999.430.64-
2020/83.145.77-26.7817.14-41.139.120.66-
2020/72.96-1.79-31.8814.0-43.68.240.73-
2020/63.0233.7-24.9211.04-46.16.960.84-
2020/52.2633.8-46.568.02-51.275.531.06主要係因客戶需求遞延及物料短缺所致
2020/41.696.17-50.685.76-52.94.191.4主要係因客戶需求遞延及物料短缺所致
2020/31.5973.99-51.564.07-53.764.071.1主要係因客戶需求遞延及物料短缺所致
2020/20.91-41.79-34.792.48-55.076.870.65客戶需求減少及工作天期減少所致
2020/11.57-64.26-61.961.57-61.969.720.46主要係因客戶需求減少及遇到春節假期,工作天數減少所致
2019/124.3916.7143.2745.53-28.510.0N/A-
2019/113.76-1.5-9.1341.13-32.140.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.832023/11.282022/12.272021/12.482020/11.57
2024/21.162023/21.922022/21.772021/22.132020/20.91
2024/31.522023/32.442022/31.742021/32.172020/31.59
2024/41.822023/41.922022/43.052021/42.772020/41.69
2024/52.962023/51.522022/53.262021/52.952020/52.26
2024/63.832023/63.172022/63.842021/63.042020/63.02
2024/71.942023/71.572022/73.422021/73.292020/72.96
2024/82.822023/81.472022/84.822021/82.892020/83.14
2024/91.362023/91.282022/94.122021/93.942020/93.33
2024/101.122023/102.132022/104.532021/103.962020/102.68
N/AN/A2023/111.652022/112.992021/113.522020/113.29
N/AN/A2023/121.562022/123.582021/124.82020/124.11
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 14.19%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)2.38-4.03209.09
24Q2 (19)2.48-6.06293.65
24Q1 (18)2.643.94266.67
23Q4 (17)2.54229.87217.5
23Q3 (16)0.7722.22-31.25
23Q2 (15)0.63-12.5-49.19
23Q1 (14)0.72-10.0-47.45
22Q4 (13)0.8-28.57128.57
22Q3 (12)1.12-9.68124.0
22Q2 (11)1.24-9.49-29.94
22Q1 (10)1.37291.43-17.96
21Q4 (9)0.35-30.0-80.34
21Q3 (8)0.5-71.75-19.35
21Q2 (7)1.775.99149.3
21Q1 (6)1.67-6.18128.77
20Q4 (5)1.78187.1140.54
20Q3 (4)0.62-12.680.0
20Q2 (3)0.71-2.740.0
20Q1 (2)0.73-1.350.0
19Q4 (1)0.740.00.0

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