玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.51-1.92-56.465.68-41.391.53N/A去年同期專案驗收入帳金額較高
2024/90.520.51-36.915.17-39.331.532.68-
2024/80.512.03-32.064.66-39.591.582.59-
2024/70.5-11.61-31.614.14-40.411.632.51-
2024/60.570.98-71.623.64-41.451.622.92去年第二季專案驗收入帳金額較高
2024/50.5615.6-20.33.07-27.121.592.98-
2024/40.49-9.56-75.122.51-28.52.042.32去年同期專案驗收入帳金額較高
2024/30.54-46.74-10.952.0230.182.022.4-
2024/21.01112.699.821.4956.341.992.44本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2024/10.48-5.886.90.486.91.493.26-
2023/120.51-0.71-23.5210.7-19.862.172.31-
2023/110.51-56.16-55.1610.19-19.672.492.02去年同期專案驗收入帳金額較高
2023/101.1642.1262.669.69-16.192.731.84本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2023/90.828.2413.398.52-21.382.312.52-
2023/80.752.7123.727.71-23.853.491.67-
2023/70.73-63.3228.796.95-26.93.441.69-
2023/62.0183.62191.716.22-30.454.671.49本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2023/50.71-63.9250.264.22-48.923.272.13去年第一季專案驗收入帳金額較高
2023/41.96223.77283.813.51-54.93.072.27去年第一季專案驗收入帳金額較高
2023/30.619.5-90.321.55-78.631.555.15去年第一季專案驗收入帳金額較高
2023/20.5113.736.490.95-8.031.614.97-
2023/10.44-32.66-20.390.44-20.392.243.57-
2022/120.66-41.7917.8113.357.912.513.09-
2022/111.1359.05102.7412.697.442.573.02本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2022/100.71-0.925.4911.562.72.043.8-
2022/90.7218.099.4310.842.521.94.13-
2022/80.616.92-12.9110.122.061.874.21-
2022/70.57-16.93-19.129.513.21.734.55-
2022/60.6946.111.38.945.041.673.78-
2022/50.47-7.84-91.328.264.557.220.87去年第二季專案驗收入帳金額較高
2022/40.51-91.83-32.087.79214.177.230.87第一季專案驗收入帳金額較高
2022/36.241214.89789.867.28321.177.280.62本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2022/20.47-14.971.721.030.691.592.85-
2022/10.56-0.35-0.160.56-0.161.682.7-
2021/120.560.161.9312.373.641.83.82-
2021/110.56-17.231.7111.813.721.893.62-
2021/100.682.7711.7811.253.822.033.37-
2021/90.66-6.026.6210.583.352.063.09-
2021/80.7-0.6914.579.923.142.023.15-
2021/70.714.310.549.222.376.740.95-
2021/60.62-88.61-87.178.512.526.790.85本月專案驗收入帳金額較低
2021/55.42621.76688.677.9125.836.870.84本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2021/40.756.987.052.48-11.781.922.99-
2021/30.750.312.611.73-18.051.734.03-
2021/20.47-16.55-37.261.03-27.961.584.42-
2021/10.561.73-17.810.56-17.811.664.19-
2020/120.55-0.05-51.2611.94-22.841.73.84本月專案驗收入帳金額較低
2020/110.55-9.04-42.9911.39-20.611.773.7-
2020/100.6-1.96-36.3110.84-18.991.833.57-
2020/90.620.98-82.5210.23-17.671.932.9本月專案驗收入帳金額較低
2020/80.61-12.85-31.329.628.056.120.91-
2020/70.7-85.41-18.479.0112.436.20.9-
2020/64.81599.7269.698.316.146.20.83本月專案驗收入帳金額較高
2020/50.69-2.02-16.963.5-18.992.072.47-
2020/40.72.55-17.962.81-19.472.132.4-
2020/30.68-8.1-20.352.11-19.962.112.95-
2020/20.749.31-21.711.42-19.772.552.44-
2020/10.68-39.66-17.540.68-17.542.772.25-
2019/121.1316.898.5815.4768.980.0N/A本年度業績成長
2019/110.971.64.114.3576.710.0N/A本年度業績成長
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.482023/10.442022/10.562021/10.562020/10.68
2024/21.012023/20.512022/20.472021/20.472020/20.74
2024/30.542023/30.62022/36.242021/30.72020/30.68
2024/40.492023/41.962022/40.512021/40.752020/40.7
2024/50.562023/50.712022/50.472021/55.422020/50.69
2024/60.572023/62.02022/60.692021/60.622020/64.81
2024/70.52023/70.732022/70.572021/70.72020/70.7
2024/80.512023/80.752022/80.612021/80.72020/80.61
2024/90.522023/90.822022/90.722021/90.662020/90.62
2024/100.512023/101.162022/100.712021/100.682020/100.6
N/AN/A2023/110.512022/111.132021/110.562020/110.55
N/AN/A2023/120.512022/120.662021/120.562020/120.55
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.18%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.5226.83-75.12
24Q2 (19)0.41-59.0-84.93
24Q1 (18)1.0-13.79-60.0
23Q4 (17)1.16-44.5-44.23
23Q3 (16)2.09-23.16-7.11
23Q2 (15)2.728.814.77
23Q1 (14)2.520.1976.06
22Q4 (13)2.08-7.5690.83
22Q3 (12)2.25-5.06106.42
22Q2 (11)2.3766.9121.5
22Q1 (10)1.4230.2812.7
21Q4 (9)1.090.0-22.7
21Q3 (8)1.091.87-14.84
21Q2 (7)1.07-15.0815.05
21Q1 (6)1.26-10.6429.9
20Q4 (5)1.4110.166.82
20Q3 (4)1.2837.630.0
20Q2 (3)0.93-4.120.0
20Q1 (2)0.97-26.520.0
19Q4 (1)1.320.00.0

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