玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.27.9-12.591.95-27.740.58N/A-
2024/90.190.97-19.921.75-29.160.472.01-
2024/80.1914.63-25.481.56-30.130.442.13-
2024/70.09-41.12-24.881.37-30.720.42.32-
2024/60.168.27-44.131.28-31.120.532.25-
2024/50.15-31.99-46.691.12-28.720.582.06-
2024/40.223.99-17.540.97-24.830.631.9-
2024/30.216.37-45.420.75-26.720.751.92-
2024/20.2-42.0-3.620.54-15.40.761.91-
2024/10.3457.32-15.090.34-15.090.861.68-
2023/120.22-27.22-31.333.2112.070.752.1-
2023/110.328.61-19.462.9917.450.762.06-
2023/100.23-1.14-9.462.723.710.712.2-
2023/90.23-6.0310.22.4628.120.612.15-
2023/80.2597.442.622.2330.350.661.97-
2023/70.13-56.2-51.451.9834.940.691.89子公司銷售減少
2023/60.293.3212.271.8553.540.831.41子公司銷售增加
2023/50.285.1947.81.5740.40.931.26-
2023/40.27-31.169.171.2938.890.861.37-
2023/30.3987.8346.571.0249.460.990.99-
2023/20.21-48.9115.140.6451.260.921.06子公司今年營收較去年高
2023/10.427.2465.410.465.411.090.9子公司銷售增加
2022/120.32-14.64-1.552.86-37.360.940.99-
2022/110.3744.5921.752.55-40.060.841.11-
2022/100.2620.32-20.992.18-44.810.711.31-
2022/90.21-12.49-25.311.92-46.940.721.47-
2022/80.24-6.6-22.511.71-48.780.61.76-
2022/70.26181.71-29.351.47-51.50.541.94疫情及政治因素影響
2022/60.09-51.1-57.831.21-54.570.522.39全球通澎壓力,政治緊張及疫情持續所致
2022/50.19-22.3-52.91.12-54.270.691.8全球通澎壓力,政治緊張及疫情持續所致
2022/40.24-7.58-49.780.93-54.540.681.83全球通澎壓力,政治緊張及疫情持續所致
2022/30.2647.55-48.50.68-56.020.682.44全球通澎壓力,政治緊張及疫情持續所致
2022/20.18-26.6-65.250.42-59.70.742.25全球通澎壓力,政治緊張及疫情持續所致
2022/10.24-24.27-54.350.24-54.350.871.93全球景氣受Govid-19疫情影響
2021/120.325.57-45.174.57-14.640.951.98-
2021/110.3-6.17-50.04.25-10.90.912.06市場需求下降
2021/100.3213.74-23.653.95-5.190.922.04-
2021/90.28-9.21-36.93.63-3.10.972.04-
2021/80.31-14.85-27.133.341.520.92.19-
2021/70.3768.17-24.933.035.830.991.99-
2021/60.22-45.39-60.62.6612.21.11.79德國及日本子公司業績下滑,韓國需求減少
2021/50.4-17.16-20.992.4434.51.41.42-
2021/40.48-5.2237.52.0456.051.511.31因COVID-19疫情影響,居家辨公致電腦需求增加
2021/30.51-0.4353.11.5662.891.561.08COVID-19疫情居家辨公致電腦需求增加
2021/20.51-3.57106.071.0468.151.631.03COVID-19疫情居家辨公致電腦需求增加
2021/10.53-9.0442.810.5342.811.720.97-
2020/120.58-3.7251.995.3628.841.620.89因疫情造成PC市場需求增加
2020/110.6143.2647.244.7726.481.480.97-
2020/100.42-5.9914.884.1723.931.311.1-
2020/90.454.8337.483.7425.051.370.83-
2020/80.43-12.2713.053.2923.511.480.77-
2020/70.49-11.7429.52.8625.261.550.73-
2020/60.569.546.522.3724.411.410.58-
2020/50.5144.1834.551.8118.921.190.69-
2020/40.355.5244.31.3113.790.930.88-
2020/30.3334.020.470.955.560.950.88-
2020/20.25-33.17-3.510.62-1.011.010.83-
2020/10.37-3.190.730.370.731.170.72-
2019/120.38-6.7420.484.16-17.770.0N/A-
2019/110.4111.77-4.463.77-20.350.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.342023/10.42022/10.242021/10.532020/10.37
2024/20.22023/20.212022/20.182021/20.512020/20.25
2024/30.212023/30.392022/30.262021/30.512020/30.33
2024/40.222023/40.272022/40.242021/40.482020/40.35
2024/50.152023/50.282022/50.192021/50.42020/50.51
2024/60.162023/60.292022/60.092021/60.222020/60.56
2024/70.092023/70.132022/70.262021/70.372020/70.49
2024/80.192023/80.252022/80.242021/80.312020/80.43
2024/90.192023/90.232022/90.212021/90.282020/90.45
2024/100.22023/100.232022/100.262021/100.322020/100.42
N/AN/A2023/110.32022/110.372021/110.32020/110.61
N/AN/A2023/120.222022/120.322021/120.322020/120.58
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 0.82%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.05-28.5725.0
24Q2 (19)0.07-12.516.67
24Q1 (18)0.0860.060.0
23Q4 (17)0.0525.025.0
23Q3 (16)0.04-33.33-42.86
23Q2 (15)0.0620.050.0
23Q1 (14)0.0525.0400.0
22Q4 (13)0.04-42.860
22Q3 (12)0.0775.0600.0
22Q2 (11)0.04300.0300.0
22Q1 (10)0.0100.0

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