玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.6321.4721.6213.7121.764.54N/A-
2024/91.34-14.7317.9512.0821.784.080.5-
2024/81.5734.5523.3610.7422.274.120.5-
2024/71.17-15.3112.539.1722.084.060.5-
2024/61.38-8.976.798.023.624.180.43-
2024/51.5218.2239.296.6227.814.090.44-
2024/41.28-1.0432.245.1124.763.790.47-
2024/31.36.79-3.653.8322.443.830.49-
2024/21.21-7.9829.462.5342.154.10.45-
2024/11.32-15.8856.241.3256.244.380.42客戶庫存調整
2023/121.574.851.4814.32-15.884.40.43客戶庫存調整
2023/111.4911.6925.3412.75-20.243.970.48-
2023/101.3417.828.6611.26-23.913.750.51-
2023/91.14-10.81-11.779.92-27.893.450.55-
2023/81.2722.73-4.178.78-29.553.60.52-
2023/71.04-19.62-19.47.51-32.583.420.55-
2023/61.2918.72-22.186.47-34.313.350.42-
2023/51.0912.24-29.825.18-36.763.40.42-
2023/40.97-27.9-41.974.09-38.383.250.44-
2023/31.3443.5-32.333.12-37.183.120.52-
2023/20.9411.05-21.511.78-40.412.810.57-
2023/10.84-18.44-52.980.84-52.983.070.52客戶庫存調整
2022/121.03-13.27-39.417.023.313.270.62-
2022/111.1914.65-28.4415.998.253.520.57-
2022/101.04-19.21-22.2414.812.923.660.55-
2022/91.29-3.142.0813.7616.923.90.52-
2022/81.333.234.1612.4718.74.280.48-
2022/71.29-22.39-24.3911.1420.714.50.45-
2022/61.667.0616.239.8530.924.880.38-
2022/51.55-7.1816.968.1934.365.210.35-
2022/41.67-15.9356.066.6439.194.850.38客戶庫存調整
2022/31.9966.4461.734.9734.324.970.33客戶庫存調整
2022/21.19-33.4631.712.9920.714.690.35-
2022/11.795.0914.351.7914.355.170.32-
2021/121.712.412.0816.485.214.710.45-
2021/111.6724.5829.5814.775.584.270.49-
2021/101.346.0615.4113.13.153.880.54-
2021/91.26-1.161.6611.771.924.240.47-
2021/81.28-25.072.4610.511.954.410.45-
2021/71.719.317.639.231.884.460.44-
2021/61.437.7314.877.53-1.13.820.48-
2021/51.3323.84-2.986.1-4.223.620.51-
2021/41.07-12.87-13.584.77-4.563.20.58-
2021/31.2335.54-11.353.7-1.593.70.47-
2021/20.91-42.23-23.22.474.084.150.42-
2021/11.57-6.1830.981.5730.984.530.39-
2020/121.6729.994.2715.6623.04.120.33-
2020/111.2910.962.6913.9925.73.690.37-
2020/101.16-6.5623.2612.728.623.650.37-
2020/91.24-0.3824.2911.5429.193.930.29-
2020/81.25-13.9831.8110.329.83.940.29-
2020/71.4516.5150.829.0629.534.060.28客戶調整庫存需求
2020/61.24-9.0136.437.6126.143.850.37-
2020/51.3710.325.06.3724.313.990.35-
2020/41.24-10.6228.135.024.133.80.37-
2020/31.3917.4239.933.7622.863.760.31-
2020/21.18-1.4764.972.3814.713.980.29客戶庫存需求調整
2020/11.2-25.32-11.761.2-11.764.050.29-
2019/121.628.0319.2612.73-12.210.0N/A-
2019/111.2533.18-1.4611.13-15.430.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.322023/10.842022/11.792021/11.572020/11.2
2024/21.212023/20.942022/21.192021/20.912020/21.18
2024/31.32023/31.342022/31.992021/31.232020/31.39
2024/41.282023/40.972022/41.672021/41.072020/41.24
2024/51.522023/51.092022/51.552021/51.332020/51.37
2024/61.382023/61.292022/61.662021/61.432020/61.24
2024/71.172023/71.042022/71.292021/71.72020/71.45
2024/81.572023/81.272022/81.332021/81.282020/81.25
2024/91.342023/91.142022/91.292021/91.262020/91.24
2024/101.632023/101.342022/101.042021/101.342020/101.16
N/AN/A2023/111.492022/111.192021/111.672020/111.29
N/AN/A2023/121.572022/121.032021/121.712020/121.67
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 3.28%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.11-15.3837.5
24Q2 (19)0.1318.1862.5
24Q1 (18)0.1122.22-8.33
23Q4 (17)0.0912.580.0
23Q3 (16)0.080.0-11.11
23Q2 (15)0.08-33.33-38.46
23Q1 (14)0.12140.0-7.69
22Q4 (13)0.05-44.44-64.29
22Q3 (12)0.09-30.770
22Q2 (11)0.130.00
22Q1 (10)0.13-7.140
21Q4 (9)0.1400

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