玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/111.52-42.17-43.4223.2-31.545.58N/A-
2024/102.6281.23-11.4721.69-30.526.15N/A-
2024/91.45-30.63-62.6519.06-32.525.63.68客戶訂單需求減少。
2024/82.080.95-38.9817.62-27.736.932.97-
2024/72.06-25.746.2915.53-25.97.172.87-
2024/62.7819.3732.3913.47-29.197.22.86-
2024/52.3311.71-31.9210.69-36.837.122.89-
2024/42.09-12.87-32.048.36-38.076.92.98-
2024/32.727.89-30.816.58-36.896.583.54-
2024/22.1119.46-32.143.88-40.536.73.48-
2024/11.77-37.17-48.181.77-48.187.263.21-
2023/122.825.1-49.5236.71-34.349.072.79-
2023/112.68-9.52-46.0933.89-32.6610.882.33-
2023/103.58-20.22-13.1835.87-20.9312.192.08-
2023/94.6216.23-29.4232.42-21.3811.112.44-
2023/83.9858.71-31.8127.8-19.868.763.09-
2023/72.510.27-45.0323.82-17.448.693.12-
2023/62.28-41.57-52.3421.09-13.179.982.74客戶訂單需求減少。
2023/53.92.53-4.218.81-3.5711.912.3-
2023/43.8-9.43-7.7414.91-3.411.32.42-
2023/34.227.63-9.1411.11-1.8211.112.4-
2023/23.29-8.94-0.146.913.2212.482.13-
2023/13.61-35.196.513.616.5114.161.88-
2022/125.5812.2417.355.9121.1814.671.9-
2022/114.9720.434.1350.3321.6315.651.78-
2022/104.13-37.04-6.7545.3723.9116.511.68-
2022/96.5512.337.3141.2428.1316.951.56-
2022/85.8427.9548.134.6926.5315.181.75-
2022/74.56-4.6322.1428.8522.9113.421.98-
2022/64.7817.4323.0124.2923.0512.982.06-
2022/54.07-1.2514.7119.5123.0612.822.09-
2022/44.12-10.830.8315.4425.4712.042.22-
2022/34.6240.2734.8811.3123.6311.312.0-
2022/23.3-2.8612.186.6916.911.441.97-
2022/13.39-28.6221.873.3921.8712.921.75-
2021/124.75-0.3612.0746.1414.6813.951.39-
2021/114.777.8471.3741.3814.9813.971.38客戶訂單增加導致金額上升
2021/104.42-7.2941.9836.6110.2513.141.47-
2021/94.7721.1222.8432.196.9712.451.45-
2021/83.945.529.2827.414.6111.561.56-
2021/73.73-3.94-17.2323.473.8711.171.62-
2021/63.899.510.8719.749.1410.591.51-
2021/53.5512.61-10.5715.858.7210.131.58-
2021/43.15-8.0312.5912.315.949.521.68-
2021/33.4316.6654.519.1517.149.151.52因去年疫情影響延期開工,導致訂單遞延。
2021/22.945.5240.785.722.329.961.4-
2021/12.78-34.36-20.572.78-20.579.811.42-
2020/124.2452.352.3340.23-0.8310.141.1-
2020/112.78-10.64-42.2935.99-1.199.781.14-
2020/103.12-19.79-26.1633.25.0710.611.05-
2020/93.887.75-3.8630.099.8912.00.67-
2020/83.61-20.0830.0126.212.2711.620.69-
2020/74.5128.6742.4722.69.8811.990.67-
2020/63.51-11.6738.4518.093.9410.280.86-
2020/53.9741.7916.0414.58-1.928.990.98-
2020/42.826.19-12.9310.61-7.37.11.24-
2020/32.226.3-16.797.81-5.17.811.38-
2020/22.09-40.46-21.765.590.59.741.11-
2020/13.51-15.4421.03.5121.00.0N/A-
2019/124.15-14.07-2.4240.573.230.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.772023/13.612022/13.392021/12.782020/13.51
2024/22.112023/23.292022/23.32021/22.942020/22.09
2024/32.72023/34.22022/34.622021/33.432020/32.22
2024/42.092023/43.82022/44.122021/43.152020/42.8
2024/52.332023/53.92022/54.072021/53.552020/53.97
2024/62.782023/62.282022/64.782021/63.892020/63.51
2024/72.062023/72.512022/74.562021/73.732020/74.51
2024/82.082023/83.982022/85.842021/83.942020/83.61
2024/91.452023/94.622022/96.552021/94.772020/93.88
2024/102.622023/103.582022/104.132021/104.422020/103.12
2024/111.522023/112.682022/114.972021/114.772020/112.78
N/AN/A2023/122.822022/125.582021/124.752020/124.24
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.04%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.32-20.96-31.96
24Q2 (19)1.67-10.22-3.47
24Q1 (18)1.8624.0-12.68
23Q4 (17)1.5-22.68-44.44
23Q3 (16)1.9412.14-9.35
23Q2 (15)1.73-18.78-4.95
23Q1 (14)2.13-21.113.9
22Q4 (13)2.726.1759.76
22Q3 (12)2.1417.5811.46
22Q2 (11)1.82-11.2231.88
22Q1 (10)2.0521.36.77
21Q4 (9)1.69-11.984.97
21Q3 (8)1.9239.139.71
21Q2 (7)1.38-28.126.98
21Q1 (6)1.9219.2586.41
20Q4 (5)1.61-8.049.07
20Q3 (4)1.7535.660.0
20Q2 (3)1.2925.240.0
20Q1 (2)1.03-4.630.0
19Q4 (1)1.080.00.0

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