玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.9213.5532.949.328.052.61N/A-
2024/90.81-8.5-1.318.45.882.53.77-
2024/80.888.54-3.57.596.712.693.5-
2024/70.81-18.4338.786.718.222.933.23-
2024/61.0-10.6139.25.95.033.42.85-
2024/51.12-13.4214.284.90.033.342.91-
2024/41.2938.4710.483.78-3.52.753.53-
2024/30.9374.614.42.5-9.432.53.91-
2024/20.53-48.35-28.141.57-16.042.573.8-
2024/11.032.55-8.051.03-8.052.943.32-
2023/121.0112.15-15.210.53-25.452.593.76-
2023/110.930.02-39.499.52-26.392.414.05-
2023/100.69-15.71-28.658.63-24.72.424.02-
2023/90.82-10.53-40.627.94-24.332.324.47-
2023/80.9256.13-31.07.12-21.872.224.68-
2023/70.59-18.19-61.456.2-20.312.284.55整體訂單下滑
2023/60.72-26.61-24.925.62-10.322.863.49-
2023/50.98-16.29-6.164.9-7.693.033.29-
2023/41.1730.847.733.92-8.072.83.56-
2023/30.8920.18-19.382.76-13.452.763.77-
2023/20.74-33.91-11.051.86-10.293.053.41-
2023/11.12-5.41-9.771.12-9.773.792.74-
2022/121.19-19.9723.2914.1223.923.642.9-
2022/111.4853.3228.8112.9423.983.832.75-
2022/100.97-29.8522.0711.4523.383.672.87-
2022/91.383.952.2910.4923.54.232.74-
2022/81.33-12.7750.699.1127.513.83.05因紹興新產線己達生產規模,並台灣外銷訂單增加。
2022/71.5259.3485.97.7824.253.523.3去年因疫情影響生產及出口,今年恢復正常生產及出口。
2022/60.95-8.2712.616.2614.993.083.88-
2022/51.04-3.92.755.3115.433.233.7-
2022/41.08-2.09-8.274.2719.013.023.95-
2022/31.1132.5930.853.1832.43.183.82-
2022/20.83-32.96153.442.0833.243.044.0111年2月營收較去年增加之原因:係去年同期因疫情影響,致當期營收較低。
2022/11.2429.251.11.241.13.363.62-
2021/120.96-16.4-4.1711.418.52.914.16-
2021/111.1545.361.9310.4421.153.293.68訂單增加營業額成長
2021/100.79-41.2225.29.2817.483.024.01-
2021/91.3553.1494.398.4916.813.052.9去年因受疫情影響,營收過度萎縮,致基期較低。
2021/80.887.627.887.148.622.553.47-
2021/70.82-3.46-2.276.266.372.683.3-
2021/60.85-16.3117.115.457.813.042.15-
2021/51.01-14.2129.24.66.253.042.15-
2021/41.1839.666.563.591.172.352.77-
2021/30.85156.82-10.242.4-1.262.42.86-
2021/20.33-73.25-55.061.564.392.562.68今年因春節假日故工作天數減少比較基期數據偏高所致。
2021/11.2322.561.571.2361.572.952.34去年因春節假日故工作天數減少比較基期數據偏低所致。
2020/121.041.2715.789.62-4.752.352.81-
2020/110.7112.34-9.698.61-6.682.043.24-
2020/100.63-8.74-12.957.9-6.42.013.28-
2020/90.690.74-18.77.27-5.782.223.05-
2020/80.69-17.77-17.966.58-4.172.253.01-
2020/70.8415.67-1.075.89-2.252.342.88-
2020/60.72-7.67-15.075.05-2.452.622.69-
2020/50.78-29.24-23.244.330.032.832.48-
2020/41.1117.6316.63.547.232.782.53-
2020/30.9428.560.262.443.442.442.9-
2020/20.73-3.8389.441.495.552.362.99去年因春節假日故工作天數減少比較基期數據偏低所致。
2020/10.76-12.21-25.960.76-25.962.422.93-
2019/120.8710.1811.5710.19.630.0N/A-
2019/110.798.28-5.199.239.450.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.032023/11.122022/11.242021/11.232020/10.76
2024/20.532023/20.742022/20.832021/20.332020/20.73
2024/30.932023/30.892022/31.112021/30.852020/30.94
2024/41.292023/41.172022/41.082021/41.182020/41.11
2024/51.122023/50.982022/51.042021/51.012020/50.78
2024/61.02023/60.722022/60.952021/60.852020/60.72
2024/70.812023/70.592022/71.522021/70.822020/70.84
2024/80.882023/80.922022/81.332021/80.882020/80.69
2024/90.812023/90.822022/91.382021/91.352020/90.69
2024/100.922023/100.692022/100.972021/100.792020/100.63
N/AN/A2023/110.92022/111.482021/111.152020/110.71
N/AN/A2023/121.012022/121.192021/120.962020/121.0
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 4.99%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.8-31.03-64.29
24Q2 (19)1.16-20.55-43.69
24Q1 (18)1.466.57-37.07
23Q4 (17)1.37-38.84-35.38
23Q3 (16)2.248.74-9.68
23Q2 (15)2.06-11.21-29.21
23Q1 (14)2.329.43-12.12
22Q4 (13)2.12-14.5214.59
22Q3 (12)2.48-14.7865.33
22Q2 (11)2.9110.23118.8
22Q1 (10)2.6442.795.56
21Q4 (9)1.8523.335.71
21Q3 (8)1.512.7842.86
21Q2 (7)1.33-1.4838.54
21Q1 (6)1.35-22.8660.71
20Q4 (5)1.7566.67133.33
20Q3 (4)1.059.380.0
20Q2 (3)0.9614.290.0
20Q1 (2)0.8412.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.750.00.0

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