玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.18-39.48-78.134.43-3.390.86N/A美國市場衰退
2024/90.29-25.689.124.2512.660.962.81-
2024/80.3942.8623.663.9612.941.691.59-
2024/70.28-73.06-51.173.5611.861.871.44大陸市場衰退
2024/61.0277.92380.343.2925.462.021.14亞洲市場成長
2024/50.5837.47-9.922.26-5.971.431.62-
2024/40.42-2.9-28.081.69-4.551.092.11-
2024/30.4376.0540.061.277.011.272.07-
2024/20.24-58.6317.640.84-4.581.481.77-
2024/10.59-7.56-11.50.59-11.51.771.48-
2023/120.6419.49155.515.7621.631.991.21美國成長
2023/110.54-33.8657.235.1214.151.611.49美國成長
2023/100.81202.031.534.5810.61.41.72-
2023/90.27-15.782.143.776.941.152.26-
2023/80.32-43.58-39.643.57.331.12.37美國市場衰退
2023/70.56164.9915.943.1816.41.421.84-
2023/60.21-66.6363.232.6216.51.431.63歐洲市場成長
2023/50.649.7533.132.4113.621.531.53美國及大陸市場成長
2023/40.5889.1-2.631.777.91.12.13-
2023/30.3147.87-29.531.1813.961.182.09-
2023/20.21-68.8828.990.8845.481.132.2-
2023/10.67166.8751.510.6751.511.261.97美國.大陸.法國成長
2022/120.25-26.4670.144.7331.181.212.14美國市場成長
2022/110.34-44.67-28.234.4829.521.222.12歐洲市場衰退
2022/100.62134.53415.424.1438.71.411.84中東市場成長
2022/90.26-50.24150.283.5322.991.282.08美國市場成長
2022/80.538.37145.993.2618.161.152.32美國市場成長
2022/70.49273.05127.522.737.391.12.42美國.歐洲市場成長
2022/60.13-72.78-63.372.25-3.631.212.29歐洲市場衰退及美國9月機展
2022/50.48-19.7330.172.127.141.511.83-
2022/40.636.8641.841.641.851.22.32-
2022/30.44170.698.01.04-12.351.042.63會計師調去年營收32437仟元於本月入帳
2022/20.16-63.44-50.960.6-22.880.753.64營業天數較少
2022/10.44199.68-2.460.44-2.461.062.57-
2021/120.15-68.98-72.153.6115.970.743.61船舶離港時間延誤
2021/110.47297.3369.063.4634.020.73.83大型機台出貨
2021/100.1213.88-68.382.9929.750.446.1電腦控制器延交(缺晶片)
2021/90.1-51.09-45.992.8749.040.534.18大陸長假及美國海運延遲
2021/80.210.23-2.732.7659.730.792.84美國歐洲回温
2021/70.21-39.941.822.5568.860.942.37大陸市場成長
2021/60.36-3.28135.482.3379.731.151.61東歐市場回溫
2021/50.37-12.54301.991.9872.361.191.55出口回升
2021/40.424.21638.971.6152.41.151.6外銷成長
2021/30.422.8850.751.1918.871.191.96大陸市場回溫
2021/20.33-27.280.480.787.151.311.77-
2021/10.45-14.4512.590.4512.591.261.84-
2020/120.5388.344.053.11-53.61.191.94國際景氣不佳
2020/110.28-25.69-50.682.58-58.330.852.7歐美市場未回溫
2020/100.3894.51-26.342.3-59.110.792.9歐美疫情影響到
2020/90.19-11.91-51.641.92-62.40.633.74歐美市場尚未復甦
2020/80.224.93-66.911.73-63.310.584.02歐美市場衰退
2020/70.2138.89-61.091.51-62.720.455.16受COVID-19疫情影響
2020/60.1565.09-71.331.3-62.970.38.0歐美主力市場未回復
2020/50.0960.77-86.421.15-61.490.425.76主力美國及歐洲市場衰退
2020/40.06-78.73-92.141.05-54.170.653.68主力美國及歐洲市場衰退
2020/30.27-18.08-48.981.0-36.691.02.31國際景氣急凍
2020/20.33-18.52-39.560.73-30.541.241.86-
2020/10.4-20.94-20.920.4-20.921.481.55-
2019/120.51-10.73-23.056.716.230.0N/A-
2019/110.5710.97-24.686.29.660.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.592023/10.672022/10.442021/10.452020/10.4
2024/20.242023/20.212022/20.162021/20.332020/20.33
2024/30.432023/30.312022/30.442021/30.42020/30.27
2024/40.422023/40.582022/40.62021/40.422020/40.06
2024/50.582023/50.642022/50.482021/50.372020/50.09
2024/61.022023/60.212022/60.132021/60.362020/60.15
2024/70.282023/70.562022/70.492021/70.212020/70.21
2024/80.392023/80.322022/80.532021/80.212020/80.22
2024/90.292023/90.272022/90.262021/90.12020/90.19
2024/100.182023/100.812022/100.622021/100.122020/100.38
N/AN/A2023/110.542022/110.342021/110.472020/110.28
N/AN/A2023/120.642022/120.252021/120.152020/120.53
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 20.36%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.7424.294.19
24Q2 (19)1.4-0.71-16.67
24Q1 (18)1.413.6863.95
23Q4 (17)1.36-18.5691.55
23Q3 (16)1.67-0.6116.88
23Q2 (15)1.6895.35175.41
23Q1 (14)0.8621.13-1.15
22Q4 (13)0.71-7.79-19.32
22Q3 (12)0.7726.230.0
22Q2 (11)0.61-29.89-10.29
22Q1 (10)0.87-1.1461.11
21Q4 (9)0.8814.2935.38
21Q3 (8)0.7713.24-23.0
21Q2 (7)0.6825.93-10.53
21Q1 (6)0.54-16.92-28.95
20Q4 (5)0.65-35.0-9.72
20Q3 (4)1.031.580.0
20Q2 (3)0.760.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.765.560.0
19Q4 (1)0.720.00.0

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