玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/1018.8558.82106.76160.611.1343.97N/A主係本月血癌用藥Lenalidomide於美國市場銷售量較去年同期增加所致
2024/911.87-10.457.85141.754.752.340.76-
2024/813.25-51.3111.85129.884.4251.610.77-
2024/727.22144.3518.97116.633.6353.890.74-
2024/611.14-28.250.9889.41-0.2747.430.8-
2024/515.53-25.2217.4878.27-0.4547.790.8-
2024/420.7680.462.9362.74-4.0742.790.89-
2024/311.519.37-19.5541.98-7.1941.980.89-
2024/210.52-47.29-3.1330.48-1.4844.20.85-
2024/119.9645.41-0.5919.96-0.5945.030.83-
2023/1213.7220.917.98169.5815.8934.191.1-
2023/1111.3524.55.94155.8616.6431.471.2-
2023/109.12-17.159.93144.5117.5731.971.18-
2023/911.0-7.12-67.14135.3918.1245.730.86本月營收較去年同期減少主係因去年血癌用藥集中於九月出貨基期較高,今年分散逐季出貨後,累計營收仍較去年同期成長。
2023/811.85-48.2118.86124.3853.3245.760.86本年累計營業收入較去年同期增長係因本年度血癌用藥Lenalidomide於美國市場銷售量增加所致。
2023/722.88107.4119.22112.5458.1547.130.83主係血癌用藥Lenalidomide於美國市場銷售量增加所致
2023/611.03-16.525.9989.6647.6644.420.88-
2023/513.22-34.4851.878.6356.2847.690.82主係美國市場客戶戒毒癮藥及血癌用藥Lenalidomide銷量增加所致
2023/420.1741.04101.8965.4157.2145.330.86美國市場客戶血癌用藥Lenalidomide補貨所致
2023/314.331.720.5245.2443.0945.240.79-
2023/210.86-45.915.5330.9456.6643.650.82一月份美國市場客戶血癌用藥Lenalidomide補貨所致
2023/120.0857.96112.2820.08112.2843.50.82美國市場客戶血癌用藥Lenalidomide補貨所致
2022/1212.7118.6339.03146.3315.6831.721.05-
2022/1110.7129.188.61133.6214.1952.50.63-
2022/108.29-75.23-4.48122.914.751.750.64-
2022/933.49235.96230.63114.6116.453.890.56血癌用藥Lenalidomide本期在美國上市銷售
2022/89.97-4.486.3881.12-8.1630.810.98-
2022/710.440.27-5.7971.15-9.8829.551.02-
2022/610.4119.55-9.5160.72-10.5529.11.07-
2022/58.71-12.87-24.7250.31-10.7730.561.02-
2022/49.99-15.8-13.6741.61-7.1632.150.97-
2022/311.8715.327.8331.61-4.931.611.0-
2022/210.298.781.2719.75-11.228.891.09-
2022/19.463.46-21.79.46-21.728.461.11-
2021/129.14-7.32-9.59126.1517.5827.691.11-
2021/119.8613.63.04117.0122.1628.671.07-
2021/108.68-14.27-15.15107.1424.2828.181.09-
2021/910.138.1-0.7698.4629.5930.580.84-
2021/89.37-15.4225.2688.3334.3231.950.8-
2021/711.08-3.67-0.878.9635.4834.140.75-
2021/611.5-0.559.367.8944.0834.640.79-
2021/511.57-0.0834.4456.3853.034.140.8外銷戒癮含片之美國終端市場份額較去年同期大幅增加
2021/411.575.1846.4444.8258.6632.740.83外銷戒癮含片之美國終端市場份額較去年同期大幅增加
2021/311.08.3157.4633.2463.433.240.66因去年第二季起新增東南亞市場業務、且旗下外銷戒癮含片之美國終端市場份額較去年同期大幅增加
2021/210.16-15.8995.422.2475.7532.350.68因去年第二季起新增東南亞市場業務、且旗下外銷戒癮含片之美國終端市場份額較去年同期大幅增加
2021/112.0819.4762.0512.0862.0531.760.69因去年第二季起新增東南亞市場業務、且旗下外銷戒癮含片之美國終端市場份額較去年同期大幅增加
2020/1210.115.63-41.69105.8915.4129.920.74-
2020/119.57-6.4531.4795.7827.4630.010.74-
2020/1010.230.2638.3586.227.0227.920.79-
2020/910.2136.4567.9375.9725.6428.850.59主要係因外銷業務持續成長、今年4月起新增東南亞市場業務,及去年底取得之授權品項陸續上市,使得營收較去年同期大幅成長
2020/87.48-33.0319.2865.7620.6829.170.58-
2020/711.176.1449.7857.8219.930.290.56-
2020/610.5222.3148.2446.6514.4427.030.55-
2020/58.68.8426.5936.134.6923.490.63-
2020/47.913.134.2127.55-0.6120.090.73-
2020/36.9934.416.8219.64-10.0119.640.66-
2020/25.2-30.25-48.6212.65-21.0530.00.43-
2020/17.45-57.0126.177.4526.1732.080.41-
2019/1217.34138.2227.2892.4843.850.0N/A外銷業務成長,去年同期部分產品未上市,又戒癮含片新增終端客戶與美國數州學名藥轉換,需求放大,經銷商為增加供貨彈性遂備貨
2019/117.28-1.5523.6875.1429.00.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/119.962023/120.082022/19.462021/112.082020/17.45
2024/210.522023/210.862022/210.292021/210.162020/25.2
2024/311.512023/314.32022/311.872021/311.02020/36.99
2024/420.762023/420.172022/49.992021/411.572020/47.9
2024/515.532023/513.222022/58.712021/511.572020/58.6
2024/611.142023/611.032022/610.412021/611.52020/610.52
2024/727.222023/722.882022/710.442021/711.082020/711.17
2024/813.252023/811.852022/89.972021/89.372020/87.48
2024/911.872023/911.02022/933.492021/910.132020/910.21
2024/1018.852023/109.122022/108.292021/108.682020/1010.23
N/AN/A2023/1111.352022/1110.712021/119.862020/119.57
N/AN/A2023/1213.722022/1212.712021/129.142020/1210.11
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 6.85%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)1.820.554.0
24Q2 (19)1.8119.08-19.56
24Q1 (18)1.5214.29-21.65
23Q4 (17)1.33-24.0-27.32
23Q3 (16)1.75-22.224.79
23Q2 (15)2.2515.9870.45
23Q1 (14)1.946.0142.65
22Q4 (13)1.839.5838.64
22Q3 (12)1.6726.5227.48
22Q2 (11)1.32-2.94-20.0
22Q1 (10)1.363.03-3.55
21Q4 (9)1.320.760.0
21Q3 (8)1.31-20.61-17.09
21Q2 (7)1.6517.02-13.16
21Q1 (6)1.416.82116.92
20Q4 (5)1.32-16.46103.08
20Q3 (4)1.58-16.840.0
20Q2 (3)1.9192.310.0
20Q1 (2)0.650.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.650.00.0

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