玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/108.36-10.43-48.0120.79-34.5529.92N/A-0.18-1.3-
2024/99.34-23.53-41.64112.43-33.2635.471.31-0.23-1.12-
2024/812.21-12.23-28.25103.09-32.3939.71.17-0.29-0.89-
2024/713.922.52-38.1590.88-32.9139.941.16-0.05-0.6-
2024/613.578.95-41.2576.96-31.8639.521.34-0.17-0.55-
2024/512.46-7.66-26.8663.39-29.4536.911.43-0.02-0.38-
2024/413.4923.11-14.5650.93-30.0535.671.480.0-0.36-
2024/310.96-2.36-39.9137.44-34.3437.441.57-0.05-0.36-
2024/211.22-26.43-27.2726.48-31.7244.761.31-0.27-0.31-
2024/115.26-16.5-34.6615.26-34.6649.671.18-0.04-0.04-
2023/1218.2713.22-5.53218.99-0.4350.51.150.01-3.07-
2023/1116.140.32-14.77200.710.0548.231.21-0.19-3.08-
2023/1016.090.51-60.51184.571.649.111.19-0.17-2.89主係造船業務營收減少所致
2023/916.0-5.988.58168.4819.5655.531.08-0.34-2.72-
2023/817.02-24.3535.69152.4820.8562.630.96-0.23-2.38-
2023/722.5-2.643.06135.4619.2162.640.96-0.15-2.15-
2023/623.135.6356.41112.9615.3855.931.11-0.2-2.0主係造船及修船業務營收增加所致
2023/517.037.85-10.689.858.0851.061.21-0.23-1.81-
2023/415.79-13.4188.2472.8213.6449.461.25-0.29-1.58主係造船業務營收增加所致
2023/318.2418.1726.0757.032.457.031.32-0.36-1.29-
2023/215.43-33.92-3.8538.79-5.8958.131.3-0.42-0.93-
2023/123.3620.73-7.1923.36-7.1961.641.22-0.51-0.51-
2022/1219.342.1412.53219.9415.0779.030.7-0.33-2.78-
2022/1118.94-53.528.46200.615.3274.420.75-0.43-2.45-
2022/1040.75176.46215.26181.6616.0868.030.82-0.14-2.02主要係造船業務營收增加所致
2022/914.7417.48-10.22140.91-1.8443.011.38-0.31-1.88-
2022/812.55-20.24-21.27126.17-0.7643.041.38-0.23-1.57-
2022/715.736.49-6.91113.632.1749.551.2-0.48-1.33-
2022/614.77-22.47-11.3797.93.842.210.85-0.27-0.86-
2022/519.05127.12-10.3383.137.0641.910.86-0.16-0.58-
2022/48.39-42.01-24.5164.0813.6238.910.92-0.27-0.43-
2022/314.47-9.8711.5855.6922.9755.690.52-0.06-0.16-
2022/216.05-36.224.1741.2227.5458.410.49-0.1-0.1-
2022/125.1746.4148.8525.1748.8559.820.480.00.0-
2021/1217.19-1.554.45191.13-25.3747.580.590.00.01-
2021/1117.4635.09-22.48173.94-27.4146.80.6-0.010.0-
2021/1012.92-21.27-37.61156.48-27.9345.280.620.010.02-
2021/916.423.03-37.1143.56-26.949.250.55-0.020.01-
2021/815.93-5.69-33.24127.14-25.3449.50.55-0.020.02-
2021/716.91.39-24.84111.21-24.0654.810.50.010.05-
2021/616.67-21.56-31.2694.31-23.9149.030.510.00.04-
2021/521.2591.2-19.5377.64-22.1345.330.550.00.04-
2021/411.11-14.28-39.3356.39-23.0639.490.630.010.03-
2021/312.96-15.86-28.0845.28-17.6445.280.560.010.03-
2021/215.41-8.86-17.5532.32-12.5545.620.560.010.02-
2021/116.9127.04-7.4416.91-7.4452.740.480.010.01-
2020/1213.31-40.92-19.89252.9752.9356.550.42-0.12-0.98主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/1122.538.7241.7239.6661.0669.350.34-0.09-0.86主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/1020.72-20.6223.63217.1363.3870.690.33-0.02-0.77主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/926.19.3567.34196.4169.1172.460.41-0.14-0.76主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/823.876.1651.21170.3169.3870.60.42-0.05-0.61主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/722.48-7.27-7.44146.4472.7773.140.4-0.07-0.57主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/624.25-8.17194.08123.96105.068.970.34-0.1-0.5主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/526.4144.14140.6399.7190.9362.750.37-0.07-0.4主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/418.321.6192.1573.377.7155.040.42-0.16-0.34主要艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2020/318.03-3.5560.5754.9973.3754.990.41-0.1-0.18主要依艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致。
2020/218.692.32123.1936.9680.3853.570.42-0.04-0.08主因艦艇業務依進度列營收所致
2020/118.279.9550.7918.2750.7950.780.44-0.04-0.04主要係艦艇業務依進度認列營收所致
2019/1216.614.552.85165.4127.110.0N/A-0.38-1.4主要係艦艇業務依認列營收所致
2019/1115.9-5.1356.39148.824.770.0N/A-0.12-1.02主要保艦艇業務量增加,依進度認列收入所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/115.262023/123.362022/125.172021/116.912020/118.27
2024/211.222023/215.432022/216.052021/215.412020/218.69
2024/310.962023/318.242022/314.472021/312.962020/318.03
2024/413.492023/415.792022/48.392021/411.112020/418.32
2024/512.462023/517.032022/519.052021/521.252020/526.41
2024/613.572023/623.12022/614.772021/616.672020/624.25
2024/713.922023/722.52022/715.732021/716.92020/722.48
2024/812.212023/817.022022/812.552021/815.932020/823.87
2024/99.342023/916.02022/914.742021/916.422020/926.1
2024/108.362023/1016.092022/1040.752021/1012.922020/1020.72
N/AN/A2023/1116.142022/1118.942021/1117.462020/1122.53
N/AN/A2023/1218.272022/1219.342021/1217.192020/1213.31
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 21.66%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)27.61-22.14-19.95
24Q2 (19)35.46-35.45-49.84
24Q1 (18)54.93-12.22-44.63
23Q4 (17)62.5881.44-19.64
23Q3 (16)34.49-51.21-60.65
23Q2 (15)70.69-28.751.03
23Q1 (14)99.2127.412.03
22Q4 (13)77.87-11.17-25.14
22Q3 (12)87.6625.280.13
22Q2 (11)69.97-20.99-24.31
22Q1 (10)88.56-14.862.59
21Q4 (9)104.0218.8154.81
21Q3 (8)87.55-5.2969.6
21Q2 (7)92.447.0967.37
21Q1 (6)86.3228.4729.32
20Q4 (5)67.1930.16-22.97
20Q3 (4)51.62-6.540.0
20Q2 (3)55.23-17.260.0
20Q1 (2)66.75-23.480.0
19Q4 (1)87.230.00.0

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