玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/100.63-4.758.035.9832.861.96N/A113年10月當月光電子產品營收增加
2024/90.66-0.756.355.3530.411.970.52-
2024/80.674.1127.814.6934.721.90.54-
2024/70.648.9610.014.0235.941.810.56-
2024/60.591.7940.563.3842.31.640.74-
2024/50.5821.5815.772.7942.671.60.76-
2024/40.48-12.4437.292.2151.891.570.78業績成長
2024/30.54-1.0113.971.7456.451.740.8業績成長
2024/20.55-15.0132.681.1988.371.860.75業績成長
2024/10.65-3.67192.850.65192.851.90.73業績成長,另一部份原因去年農曆春節在1月工作日減少
2023/120.6713.7664.215.763.781.660.94112年12月當月光電子產品營收增加
2023/110.5947.450.755.09-1.011.610.97-
2023/100.4-35.86-19.634.5-1.231.541.01-
2023/90.6219.26-6.744.11.011.731.01-
2023/80.52-10.38-19.973.482.541.521.14-
2023/70.5839.23-3.072.967.91.51.16-
2023/60.42-16.15-16.052.3710.991.261.54-
2023/50.544.1776.651.9619.211.321.48大陸子公司111年5月因上海疫情封控停工營收減少,相比較致今年5月營收增加較多
2023/40.35-27.3141.181.467.251.241.58-
2023/30.4815.222.471.11-0.221.111.92-
2023/20.4187.5630.770.63-2.151.042.04-
2023/10.22-45.98-33.530.22-33.531.211.76-
2022/120.41-30.2-39.955.55-11.381.491.54-
2022/110.5817.612.95.14-7.911.751.31-
2022/100.5-25.582.584.56-9.131.821.27-
2022/90.672.356.64.06-10.381.921.3-
2022/80.658.5350.463.39-13.111.751.43子公司上海嘉慧疫情解封後復工,本月營收增加較多
2022/70.620.5929.912.74-21.051.381.81-
2022/60.576.44-7.242.14-28.91.032.57-
2022/50.2815.22-46.461.64-33.610.992.66-
2022/40.25-47.24-53.751.36-30.121.032.57重要子公司上海嘉慧因疫情封控,今年4月無營業收入
2022/30.4647.05-6.031.11-21.241.112.08-
2022/20.32-4.67-5.380.65-29.441.331.74-
2022/10.33-51.2-43.210.33-43.211.581.46-
2021/120.6819.62-2.36.267.511.731.13-
2021/110.5717.25-16.735.588.851.681.17-
2021/100.48-22.675.465.0112.771.541.27-
2021/90.6344.476.344.5313.611.521.21-
2021/80.43-6.292.543.914.871.431.28-
2021/70.46-13.89-14.183.4716.621.531.2-
2021/60.541.83-12.313.0123.441.61.06-
2021/50.53-0.4715.462.4735.461.551.09-
2021/40.537.194.891.9442.151.361.24-
2021/30.4948.079.771.4164.021.411.1去年2月因新冠肺炎疫情減少影響至去年累計數
2021/20.33-42.79228.760.92123.561.610.96去年同期營收因新冠肺炎疫情而減少
2021/10.58-16.0488.960.5888.961.960.79去年同期適逢春節假期,工作天比較少,故去年同期營收較少
2020/120.71.9520.55.8214.631.840.68-
2020/110.6848.5150.785.1313.881.730.72市場需求增加
2020/100.46-22.02-19.354.459.761.470.85-
2020/90.5939.343.353.9914.521.550.88-
2020/80.42-21.57-5.413.410.661.570.87-
2020/70.54-12.0235.72.9813.41.610.85-
2020/60.6134.0935.832.449.431.580.76-
2020/50.46-9.5830.541.822.721.410.85-
2020/40.5112.1868.21.37-4.111.061.13原部份3月出貨延至4月
2020/30.45343.46-10.730.86-23.430.861.47-
2020/20.1-67.11-58.590.41-33.770.991.29因新冠肺炎疫情影響大陸地區子公司銷售
2020/10.31-46.46-17.510.31-17.511.340.95-
2019/120.5827.57-17.255.08-13.130.0N/A-
2019/110.45-20.579.754.5-12.570.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.652023/10.222022/10.332021/10.582020/10.31
2024/20.552023/20.412022/20.322021/20.332020/20.1
2024/30.542023/30.482022/30.462021/30.492020/30.45
2024/40.482023/40.352022/40.252021/40.532020/40.51
2024/50.582023/50.52022/50.282021/50.532020/50.46
2024/60.592023/60.422022/60.52021/60.542020/60.61
2024/70.642023/70.582022/70.62021/70.462020/70.54
2024/80.672023/80.522022/80.652021/80.432020/80.42
2024/90.662023/90.622022/90.672021/90.632020/90.59
2024/100.632023/100.42022/100.52021/100.482020/100.46
N/AN/A2023/110.592022/110.582021/110.572020/110.68
N/AN/A2023/120.672022/120.412021/120.682020/120.7
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.56%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.320.060.0
24Q2 (19)0.3210.3433.33
24Q1 (18)0.29-14.7138.1
23Q4 (17)0.3470.017.24
23Q3 (16)0.2-16.67-25.93
23Q2 (15)0.2414.29-46.67
23Q1 (14)0.21-27.59-22.22
22Q4 (13)0.297.4138.1
22Q3 (12)0.27-40.0-3.57
22Q2 (11)0.4566.6795.65
22Q1 (10)0.2728.5722.73
21Q4 (9)0.21-25.0-4.55
21Q3 (8)0.2821.7464.71
21Q2 (7)0.234.554.55
21Q1 (6)0.220.037.5
20Q4 (5)0.2229.4122.22
20Q3 (4)0.17-22.730.0
20Q2 (3)0.2237.50.0
20Q1 (2)0.16-11.110.0
19Q4 (1)0.180.00.0

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