玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/105.09-11.98-12.6257.12-12.2517.55N/A-
2024/95.79-13.347.452.03-12.2118.670.71-
2024/86.687.47-2.3646.24-14.1818.60.71-
2024/76.218.8-2.4339.56-15.8917.040.77-
2024/65.7111.57-4.9533.35-18.016.310.79-
2024/55.12-6.66-24.0927.64-20.2615.850.81-
2024/45.484.51-14.1922.53-19.3415.660.82-
2024/35.256.35-31.3417.04-20.8617.040.74-
2024/24.93-28.15-31.7611.8-15.116.780.75-
2024/16.8637.682.956.862.9517.660.72-
2023/124.99-14.15-29.4275.89-4.4516.620.79-
2023/115.81-0.34-28.0970.9-2.0117.020.77-
2023/105.838.19-14.165.11.2618.050.72-
2023/95.39-21.23-27.5659.273.0818.590.72-
2023/86.847.41-27.3253.887.6319.210.7-
2023/76.375.98-25.947.0415.7219.120.7-
2023/66.01-10.89-11.1740.6826.8819.140.7-
2023/56.745.529.9534.6737.0620.770.65-
2023/46.39-16.3640.5927.9338.8921.260.63-
2023/37.645.6963.7821.5438.421.540.64係因客戶出貨需求增加所致。
2023/27.238.453.3313.927.5321.290.65係因客戶出貨需求增加所致。
2023/16.67-9.767.876.677.8722.140.63-
2022/127.39-8.523.0379.7527.7322.250.81-
2022/118.0819.0462.8172.3630.9322.30.81係因客戶出貨需求增加所致。
2022/106.79-8.7562.5864.2827.7923.630.76係因客戶出貨需求增加所致。
2022/97.44-20.9847.1857.524.6425.440.73-
2022/89.419.5182.1750.0621.8724.770.75係因客戶出貨需求增加所致。
2022/78.5927.0557.7340.6513.1920.540.9係因客戶出貨需求增加所致。
2022/66.7630.3712.2432.065.2316.51.35-
2022/55.1914.142.9825.293.514.41.54-
2022/44.54-2.57-11.4720.113.6313.921.59-
2022/34.66-1.04-16.5215.569.0715.561.06-
2022/24.71-23.7326.4610.925.5618.070.92-
2022/16.18-13.824.886.1824.8818.310.9-
2021/127.1744.553.8962.444.9716.310.94-
2021/114.9618.88-16.6355.265.1114.191.08-
2021/104.17-17.39-13.5750.37.8914.391.06-
2021/95.05-2.191.046.1310.3715.670.99-
2021/85.17-5.172.441.0811.6416.640.94-
2021/75.45-9.581.9435.9113.1116.510.94-
2021/66.0319.613.4630.4615.3716.20.94-
2021/55.04-1.88-13.0824.4418.7515.760.96-
2021/45.13-8.129.219.431.2314.451.05-
2021/35.5949.9147.9214.2741.514.270.88-
2021/23.73-24.6850.558.6837.6615.580.81本年累計金額較去年同期累計金額成長,主要係因去年同期受疫情影響以致出貨減少。
2021/14.95-28.2929.324.9529.3217.80.71-
2020/126.915.9852.759.486.0817.680.62本月較去年同期成長主因客戶需求量增加所致。
2020/115.9523.2543.252.571.9915.780.7-
2020/104.83-3.4619.7446.62-1.6214.880.74-
2020/95.0-0.834.3641.79-3.615.390.72-
2020/85.04-5.5910.0136.79-4.5916.210.68-
2020/75.34-8.245.0531.75-6.5716.960.65-
2020/65.820.4717.2226.4-8.6116.320.68-
2020/55.823.2714.5520.58-13.9814.280.78-
2020/44.724.4417.4314.78-21.6310.961.01-
2020/33.7852.58-31.2610.08-32.1610.081.1-
2020/22.48-35.3-21.846.3-32.6910.831.02-
2020/13.83-15.41-38.233.83-38.2312.510.88-
2019/124.528.86-26.5256.07-9.350.0N/A-
2019/114.163.06-37.9551.55-7.450.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/16.862023/16.672022/16.182021/14.952020/13.83
2024/24.932023/27.232022/24.712021/23.732020/22.48
2024/35.252023/37.642022/34.662021/35.592020/33.78
2024/45.482023/46.392022/44.542021/45.132020/44.7
2024/55.122023/56.742022/55.192021/55.042020/55.8
2024/65.712023/66.012022/66.762021/66.032020/65.82
2024/76.212023/76.372022/78.592021/75.452020/75.34
2024/86.682023/86.842022/89.412021/85.172020/85.04
2024/95.792023/95.392022/97.442021/95.052020/95.0
2024/105.092023/105.832022/106.792021/104.172020/104.83
N/AN/A2023/115.812022/118.082021/114.962020/115.95
N/AN/A2023/124.992022/127.392021/127.172020/126.9
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 22.88%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)4.04-11.4-5.83
24Q2 (19)4.56-17.9920.95
24Q1 (18)5.566.5129.3
23Q4 (17)5.2221.68-1.69
23Q3 (16)4.2913.791.18
23Q2 (15)3.77-12.33-32.32
23Q1 (14)4.3-19.02-5.91
22Q4 (13)5.3125.246.41
22Q3 (12)4.24-23.88-1.85
22Q2 (11)5.5721.8825.17
22Q1 (10)4.57-8.4229.83
21Q4 (9)4.9915.5188.3
21Q3 (8)4.32-2.9252.65
21Q2 (7)4.4526.4232.84
21Q1 (6)3.5232.83-2.49
20Q4 (5)2.65-6.36-8.93
20Q3 (4)2.83-15.520.0
20Q2 (3)3.35-7.20.0
20Q1 (2)3.6124.050.0
19Q4 (1)2.910.00.0

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