玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.5526.987.575.8325.671.87N/A歐洲電力市場出貨增加
2024/100.43-51.3926.135.2821.52.1N/A-
2024/90.8914.6143.164.8521.12.511.44-
2024/80.78-7.99243.13.9517.032.331.55美洲市場出貨增加
2024/70.8518.74150.413.180.781.831.98美國訂單出貨
2024/60.71159.14-12.242.33-17.161.193.31-
2024/50.2733.07-10.091.62-19.161.013.89-
2024/40.21-61.3319.471.34-20.790.894.46-
2024/30.53267.06-43.861.14-25.351.143.55-
2024/20.15-68.3-52.550.65.342.461.64二月工作天數較少,出貨時間較短,所以營收減少
2024/10.46-75.2571.830.4671.832.611.55歐洲電力市場出貨增加
2023/121.85532.73695.836.4948.512.491.51國內市場出貨增加
2023/110.29-14.6654.674.6412.061.262.98歐洲電力市場出貨增加
2023/100.34-44.83-30.924.3410.011.193.14-
2023/90.62174.6798.144.015.911.193.1國內電力市場標案出貨
2023/80.23-32.84-23.953.387.671.382.68-
2023/70.34-58.38-18.343.1511.01.452.53-
2023/60.81165.46119.082.8116.01.292.63電力市場如期出貨
2023/50.3176.83-6.082.0-2.561.432.37-
2023/40.17-81.83-64.11.7-1.91.432.37訂單延遲出貨
2023/30.95210.25134.951.5222.061.522.09遞延訂單完成出貨
2023/20.3114.8183.630.57-32.060.813.94去年二月工作天數較少,所以營收少
2023/10.2714.59-60.580.27-60.580.694.61訂單延遲出貨
2022/120.2322.97-66.894.37-15.110.923.4訂單延遲出貨
2022/110.19-61.89-59.894.14-6.911.03.13訂單延遲出貨
2022/100.558.24-11.613.95-0.621.112.82-
2022/90.315.41-23.83.451.191.032.92-
2022/80.3-27.89-31.183.144.631.082.76-
2022/70.4111.6514.442.8410.671.112.7-
2022/60.3713.817.982.4310.051.182.48-
2022/50.33-32.4-7.492.068.741.212.41-
2022/40.4818.8949.851.7312.451.052.77-
2022/30.4142.484.391.252.591.252.35-
2022/20.17-75.35-52.580.841.741.551.9外銷訂單延遲出貨
2022/10.68-3.7641.790.6841.791.851.59-
2021/120.748.98-11.985.15-13.951.741.7-
2021/110.47-16.01-26.884.45-14.251.452.05-
2021/100.5636.4111.933.97-12.461.412.1-
2021/90.41-4.798.443.41-15.491.212.47-
2021/80.4319.91-27.143.0-17.981.112.69-
2021/70.3615.11-41.592.57-16.211.032.9-
2021/60.31-10.77-52.022.2-9.780.992.96受疫情影響,訂單延遲出貨
2021/50.359.49140.011.895.651.062.75國內需求增加
2021/40.32-17.1791.111.54-6.321.062.75台灣及東南亞地區銷售增加
2021/30.3910.1213.991.22-17.431.222.39-
2021/20.35-26.29-4.840.83-26.851.631.79-
2021/10.48-40.26-37.510.48-37.511.921.51-
2020/120.823.75-31.625.989.811.951.5-
2020/110.6528.58171.985.1921.131.531.91客戶需求增加帶動營收成長
2020/100.532.1680.894.5412.271.481.98海外客戶需求增加帶動營收成長
2020/90.38-36.0411.014.047.21.591.97-
2020/80.59-3.8767.983.666.821.871.68國內客戶需求較去年增加
2020/70.62-5.4318.363.06-0.221.422.21-
2020/60.65346.344.372.44-4.030.973.18-
2020/50.15-12.81-70.841.79-6.780.654.7受疫情影響,外銷訂單延遲出貨
2020/40.17-50.59-63.061.6415.930.883.51受新冠肺炎疫情的影響,外銷訂單延遲出貨。
2020/30.34-8.07-21.281.4753.311.471.89海外客戶需求較去年同期減弱
2020/20.37-51.5930.871.13114.162.31.21海外客戶需求較去年增加
2020/10.76-34.63209.430.76209.430.0N/A客戶需求較去年同期暢旺
2019/121.17392.27-18.255.45-0.630.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.462023/10.272022/10.682021/10.482020/10.76
2024/20.152023/20.312022/20.172021/20.352020/20.37
2024/30.532023/30.952022/30.42021/30.392020/30.34
2024/40.212023/40.172022/40.482021/40.322020/40.17
2024/50.272023/50.312022/50.332021/50.352020/50.15
2024/60.712023/60.812022/60.372021/60.312020/60.65
2024/70.852023/70.342022/70.412021/70.362020/70.62
2024/80.782023/80.232022/80.32021/80.432020/80.59
2024/90.892023/90.622022/90.312021/90.412020/90.38
2024/100.432023/100.342022/100.52021/100.562020/100.5
2024/110.552023/110.292022/110.192021/110.472020/110.65
N/AN/A2023/121.852022/120.232021/120.72020/120.8
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.94%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.11-38.89-42.11
24Q2 (19)0.1820.0-21.74
24Q1 (18)0.157.14-53.12
23Q4 (17)0.14-26.32-57.58
23Q3 (16)0.19-17.39-42.42
23Q2 (15)0.23-28.12-28.12
23Q1 (14)0.32-3.03100.0
22Q4 (13)0.330.03200.0
22Q3 (12)0.333.12450.0
22Q2 (11)0.32100.0433.33
22Q1 (10)0.161500.0166.67
21Q4 (9)0.01-83.33-50.0
21Q3 (8)0.060.0500.0
21Q2 (7)0.060.020.0
21Q1 (6)0.06200.0200.0
20Q4 (5)0.02100.0-33.33
20Q3 (4)0.01-80.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.05150.00.0
20Q1 (2)0.02-33.330.0
19Q4 (1)0.030.00.0

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