玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/101.37-1.94-1.8113.719.834.27N/A
2024/91.4-6.2134.8912.3322.864.280.66-
2024/81.497.5354.6610.9321.474.380.65本月營收較去年同期增加,係因客戶端需求增加,以致出貨量增加。
2024/71.39-7.2768.029.4317.474.190.68本月營收較去年同期增加及本年累計營收較去年累計營收增加,係因客戶端需求增加,以致出貨量增加。
2024/61.515.1137.288.0411.674.10.83-
2024/51.30.1343.76.547.093.920.87-
2024/41.3-1.141.215.240.723.610.94-
2024/31.3132.46-9.083.940.573.941.23-
2024/20.99-39.29-40.032.636.214.141.17-
2024/11.647.8399.691.6499.694.61.05相較112年1月半導體產業低迷之情況,今年同期需求緩步回溫。112年1月適逢年節假期,營業天期短亦有影響。
2023/121.524.65-45.2914.4-45.684.370.78-
2023/111.453.55-37.3512.88-45.733.890.87-
2023/101.434.711.4411.43-46.633.41.0-
2023/91.047.52-41.3510.03-49.942.831.49本月營收較去年同期減少及本年累計營收較去年累計營收減少,係因半導體產業景氣持續低迷,部分運營商仍延續調整備貨節奏所致。
2023/80.9716.81-38.779.0-50.772.881.46本月營收較去年同期減少及本年累計營收較去年累計營收減少,係因半導體產業景氣持續低迷,部分運營商仍延續調整備貨節奏所致。
2023/70.83-24.23-61.298.03-51.912.821.49本月營收較去年同期減少及本年累計營收較去年累計營收減少,係因半導體產業景氣持續低迷,部分運營商仍延續調整備貨節奏所致。
2023/61.0920.5-59.497.2-50.533.281.41本月營收較去年同期減少及本年累計營收較去年累計營收減少,係因半導體產業景氣持續低迷,部分運營商仍延續調整備貨節奏所致。
2023/50.91-29.47-60.636.11-48.493.641.28本月營收較去年同期減少,係因半導體產業景氣持續低迷,部分運營商仍延續調整備貨節奏所致。
2023/41.28-11.2-46.75.21-45.574.391.06-
2023/31.45-12.62-45.63.92-45.193.921.53-
2023/21.66102.13-34.882.47-44.955.251.15-
2023/10.82-70.45-58.070.82-58.075.91.02本月營收較去年同期減少,係因1月份工作天數較短及部分客戶調整備貨節奏所致。
2022/122.7719.84-23.0626.51-5.836.460.47-
2022/112.3167.68-10.4423.74-3.35.460.56-
2022/101.38-22.12-38.2921.43-2.464.730.65-
2022/91.7712.26-26.1720.051.585.490.98-
2022/81.58-26.15-34.6118.275.436.410.84-
2022/72.14-20.72-6.8416.711.97.130.76-
2022/62.717.1223.9714.5615.317.410.59-
2022/52.3-4.52-1.0511.8713.517.370.6-
2022/42.41-9.35-1.289.5617.687.610.58-
2022/32.664.5823.747.1525.827.150.47-
2022/22.5430.1559.954.527.098.10.41本月營業收入較去年同期增加60%,主係去年同期逢年節長假所致。
2022/11.95-45.780.281.950.288.140.41-
2021/123.639.573.3128.1535.98.420.44本月營業收入較去年同期增加73%,係因本月IC產能供給略為緩解,可出貨量增加,使得客戶端缺貨壓力有所紓解。
2021/112.5815.5327.6924.5531.727.220.51-
2021/102.24-6.8335.6821.9732.227.050.52-
2021/92.4-0.5739.1719.7331.837.110.6-
2021/82.415.2217.3417.3330.886.880.62-
2021/72.295.4971.9414.9233.376.790.63本月營業收入較去年同期增加72%,主係本年度擴展機頂盒業務,並於新市場有所斬獲所致。
2021/62.17-6.5135.9912.6328.156.940.56-
2021/52.33-4.7523.5410.4526.636.920.56-
2021/42.4413.6275.418.1327.546.180.63本月營業收入較去年本月增加75%,主係去年同期全球受疫情影響,客戶調節採購步調所致。
2021/32.1535.1934.015.6914.165.690.66-
2021/21.59-18.39-23.353.544.745.620.67-
2021/11.95-6.3149.441.9549.446.050.62-
2020/122.082.782.8720.722.985.750.58-
2020/112.0222.7614.6518.643.05.390.62-
2020/101.65-4.439.6716.611.745.430.62-
2020/91.72-16.1620.7114.970.935.110.65-
2020/82.0654.1710.4813.24-1.164.990.66-
2020/71.33-16.56-16.3111.19-3.044.810.69-
2020/61.6-15.07-19.439.85-0.924.870.7-
2020/51.8835.2367.038.253.694.880.7本月營收較去年同期增加67%,係因個別客戶於去年同期調節採購步調,致基期偏低。
2020/41.39-13.1810.136.37-6.755.070.68-
2020/31.6-22.6816.794.98-10.584.980.53-
2020/22.0759.1116.623.38-19.535.40.49-
2020/11.3-35.5-46.121.3-46.125.090.52-
2019/122.0214.554.2720.12-16.620.0N/A-
2019/111.7617.43-4.8818.09-18.440.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/11.642023/10.822022/11.952021/11.952020/11.3
2024/20.992023/21.662022/22.542021/21.592020/22.07
2024/31.312023/31.452022/32.662021/32.152020/31.6
2024/41.32023/41.282022/42.412021/42.442020/41.39
2024/51.32023/50.912022/52.32021/52.332020/51.88
2024/61.52023/61.092022/62.72021/62.172020/61.6
2024/71.392023/70.832022/72.142021/72.292020/71.33
2024/81.492023/80.972022/81.582021/82.412020/82.06
2024/91.42023/91.042022/91.772021/92.42020/91.72
2024/101.372023/101.42022/101.382021/102.242020/101.65
N/AN/A2023/111.452022/112.312021/112.582020/112.02
N/AN/A2023/121.522022/122.772021/123.62020/122.08
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 5.12%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.6900.0900.0
24Q2 (19)0.0620.00
24Q1 (18)0.0525.0-68.75
23Q4 (17)0.04-33.33-33.33
23Q3 (16)0.0600.0

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