玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 理想的成長型公司, 本業EPS的成長幅度會大於營收的成長幅度
  • 營收到某個數字後, 本業EPS呈現不成比例的增加, 有可能是規模經濟的效應
  • 如果是有淡旺季的公司, 是否有淡季不淡, 旺季更旺的情況
  • 漲很多的股票要留意 EPS 較上季是否有大幅衰退的情況
  • 如果EPS衰退,要觀察同業是不是有一樣的狀況
  • 要留意增資減資和公司債對股本及EPS的影響
成長能力-近20季
加權平均股數 QoQ YoYEPS QoQ YoY本業EPS QoQ YoY累計EPS QoQ YoY營收 QoQ YoY毛利率(%) QoQ YoY營業利益率 QoQ YoY稅後淨利率 QoQ YoY營業利益 QoQ YoY稅後淨利 QoQ YoY稅前淨利率(%) QoQ YoY稅後淨利率(%) QoQ YoY兩季平均(YOY)營收成長率(%)兩季平均(YOY)EPS成長率(%)兩季平均(YOY)本業EPS成長率(%)
24Q3 (20)610.00.0-1.07-30.49-16.3-1.08-16.13-28.57-2.98-56.0242.366.46-2.42-5.09.52-15.963.86-10.36-18.9411.83-10.14-34.48-22.02-0.67-15.5216.25-0.65-30.0-14.04-10.20-32.1219.11-10.14-34.48-22.02-3.99-2.86-20.91
24Q2 (19)610.00.0-0.8224.7766.26-0.93-25.6866.79-1.91-75.2355.066.62-5.56-14.2511.3215.63279.97-8.71-27.1559.18-7.5420.9660.81-0.58-20.8364.85-0.525.3766.44-7.7222.858.29-7.5420.9660.81-2.056.207.80
24Q1 (18)610.015.09-1.09-12.3746.31-0.7441.2753.46-1.0982.2246.317.011.45-21.069.7972.36115.16-6.8543.7140.95-9.54-11.1922.0-0.4842.8653.4-0.67-13.5638.53-10.00-3.9522.84-9.54-11.1922.01.54-8.90-4.36
23Q4 (17)610.012.96-0.97-5.43-126.58-1.26-50.0-141.72-6.13-18.57-246.656.911.62-63.365.68-2.24-69.8-12.17-3.57-200.08-8.58-3.25-182.18-0.84-5.0-136.68-0.59-3.51-129.95-9.6223.71-174.98-8.58-3.25-182.18-5.1528.3610.00
23Q3 (16)610.012.96-0.9262.14-125.41-0.8470.0-123.2-5.17-21.65-1094.236.8-11.92-73.525.81192.37-61.6-11.7544.94-225.53-8.3156.81-209.78-0.851.52-133.33-0.5761.74-129.38-12.6131.87-251.56-8.3156.81-209.78-12.4921.22-3.05
23Q2 (15)6115.0912.96-2.43-19.7-63.09-2.80-76.1-94.44-4.25-109.36-39.347.72-13.06-33.62-6.29-238.24-387.21-21.34-83.97-173.59-19.24-57.32-176.83-1.65-60.19-81.32-1.49-36.7-83.95-18.51-42.82-156.02-19.24-57.32-176.83-32.99-87.66-114.38
23Q1 (14)53-1.85-1.85-2.03-155.62-29.3-1.59-152.65-32.5-2.03-148.56-29.38.88-52.92-24.944.55-75.8112.07-11.60-195.39-89.85-12.23-217.15-70.1-1.03-144.98-43.06-1.09-155.33-28.24-12.96-201.01-81.51-12.23-217.15-70.1-39.74-77.39-84.61
22Q4 (13)540.00.03.650.831420.833.02-16.573675.04.18703.85620.6918.86-26.5655.3518.8124.3299.4712.1629.914966.6710.4437.91857.82.29-4.587533.331.971.551415.3812.8354.211341.5710.4437.91857.847.12171.89167.41
22Q3 (12)540.00.03.62342.953116.673.62351.392111.110.52117.0552.9425.68120.81103.8115.13590.8753.149.36220.023500.07.57208.921555.772.4363.7424100.01.94339.512871.438.32215.083228.07.57208.921555.7759.56174.03165.69
22Q2 (11)540.00.0-1.495.1-696.0-1.44-20.0-476.0-3.05-94.27-763.0411.63-1.695.922.19-46.06-75.31-7.80-27.66-369.88-6.953.34-665.04-0.91-26.39-405.56-0.814.71-723.08-7.23-1.26-885.87-6.953.34-665.04-2.12-374.53-810.00
22Q1 (10)540.00.0-1.57-754.17-847.62-1.20-1600.0-621.74-1.57-370.69-847.6211.83-2.556.484.06-56.95-66.47-6.11-2645.83-423.28-7.19-759.63-791.35-0.72-2500.0-442.86-0.85-753.85-808.33-7.14-902.25-508.0-7.19-759.63-791.35-3.10-227.08-727.78
21Q4 (9)540.03.850.24300.0-63.080.08144.44-88.890.5870.59-83.2912.14-3.65-6.479.43-4.55-30.30.24700.0-94.551.09309.62-57.750.03400.0-94.740.13285.71-60.610.89256.0-75.01.09309.62-57.755.5576.0086.22
21Q3 (8)540.05.88-0.12-148.0-108.57-0.1828.0-113.240.34-26.09-88.1512.614.75-21.359.8811.39-40.45-0.0497.59-100.64-0.52-142.28-111.66-0.0194.44-101.0-0.07-153.85-109.860.25-72.83-95.47-0.52-142.28-111.666.79-64.47-90.35
21Q2 (7)540.05.880.2519.05-87.37-0.25-208.7-119.230.46119.05-68.4910.98-1.17-13.348.87-26.75-44.56-1.66-187.83-122.711.2318.27-84.41-0.18-185.71-119.350.138.33-87.00.92-47.43-89.781.2318.27-84.41-7.79-24.32-138.38
21Q1 (6)543.855.880.21-67.69141.180.23-68.06153.490.21-93.95141.1811.11-14.4118.712.11-10.547.681.89-57.05152.941.04-59.69137.410.21-63.16163.640.12-63.64146.151.75-50.84149.441.04-59.69137.41-16.70-60.63-57.56
20Q4 (5)521.961.960.65-53.574.840.72-47.06-8.863.4720.9170.112.98-18.9810.6613.53-18.44-3.634.40-29.821.852.58-42.15-4.090.57-43.011.760.33-53.523.123.56-35.5122.342.58-42.15-4.09--0.00
20Q3 (4)510.00.01.40-29.290.01.364.620.02.8796.580.016.0226.440.016.593.690.06.27-14.230.04.46-43.470.01.07.530.00.71-29.00.05.52-38.670.04.46-43.470.0--0.00
20Q2 (3)510.00.01.98488.240.01.30402.330.01.46386.270.012.6735.360.016.0095.120.07.31304.760.07.89383.810.00.93381.820.01.0484.620.09.00354.240.07.89383.810.0--0.00
20Q1 (2)510.00.0-0.51-182.260.0-0.43-154.430.0-0.51-125.00.09.36-20.20.08.20-41.60.0-3.57-182.640.0-2.78-203.350.0-0.33-164.710.0-0.26-181.250.0-3.54-221.650.0-2.78-203.350.0--0.00
19Q4 (1)510.00.00.620.00.00.790.00.02.040.00.011.730.00.014.040.00.04.320.00.02.690.00.00.510.00.00.320.00.02.910.00.02.690.00.0--0.00
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/102.7410.7973.4322.77-8.577.18N/A因歐美降息,市場開始回溫,終端銷售增加,客戶庫存水位降低。 為因應傳統旺季需求,客戶增加訂單出貨量。
2024/92.4726.06.520.03-14.136.441.35-
2024/81.96-1.86-10.9517.56-16.416.441.35-
2024/72.0-19.27-9.9815.6-17.056.371.36-
2024/62.4830.7311.0413.6-18.06.611.21-
2024/51.9-15.41-26.7511.12-22.526.871.16-
2024/42.24-18.05-22.799.22-21.587.361.09-
2024/32.7314.4634.276.98-21.196.980.95-
2024/22.3928.54-14.274.25-37.757.50.88-
2024/11.86-42.91-53.961.86-53.967.150.93去年同期因逢市場需求從高點剛開始下滑,全球出貨量較為平均,本期歐美市場有假期與歐洲海運線受戰爭因素影響交期致使出貨較低。
2023/123.2660.28-17.430.2-55.76.870.9712月主要客戶於歐美的出貨較上月有明顯增加,顯見客戶庫存穩健持續改善,惟較去年同期數量相比仍未完全恢復。
2023/112.0328.54-70.1526.94-58.055.931.12客戶庫存去化速度已加快,原先客戶延遲訂單出貨狀況已逐步改善,且新訂單也陸續增加中。
2023/101.58-31.95-80.524.91-56.616.111.09去年客戶因H1大缺料而累積的未交訂單集中在9月開始大量出貨,而今年市場需求降低且通路庫存仍未完全消化,使得本年出貨相對較低
2023/92.325.35-84.4223.33-52.686.751.3去年客戶因H1大缺料而累積的未交訂單集中在9月開始大量出貨,而今年市場需求降低且通路庫存仍未完全消化,使得本年出貨相對較低
2023/82.2-0.8-67.7121.01-38.926.661.32客戶調整庫存水位,導致本公司出貨遞延
2023/72.22-0.4-45.6218.8-31.797.041.25-
2023/62.23-13.76-57.4816.58-29.387.720.99出美國最大客戶開始拉貨,但歐洲客群仍消化庫存中
2023/52.59-10.84-37.9714.35-21.297.531.02-
2023/42.942.5129.8811.76-16.347.730.99-
2023/32.04-26.92-61.938.86-25.078.861.42客戶調整庫存水位,導致本公司出貨遞延
2023/22.79-30.9639.26.825.3710.771.17-
2023/14.042.4-9.764.04-9.7614.790.85-
2022/123.94-42.08-40.268.1745.9818.860.9貨物塞港,延遲出貨
2022/116.81-16.04188.0964.2360.1529.830.57產能穩定,出貨順暢
2022/108.11-45.64159.4757.4252.1429.850.57產能穩定,出貨順暢
2022/914.92118.41134.5949.3142.4525.830.75產能穩定,出貨順暢
2022/86.8367.0852.7934.421.7216.171.19疫情趨緩,產能穩定,出貨順暢
2022/74.09-22.12136.2627.5715.8913.511.43去年同期因疫情影響,營收減少
2022/65.2525.829.3223.486.4411.661.23-
2022/54.1786.6928.9318.231.2911.761.22-
2022/42.23-58.23-39.3614.06-4.769.591.5-
2022/35.35167.2534.8611.836.7411.831.22-
2022/22.0-55.24-31.356.48-8.9413.071.11-
2022/14.47-32.136.644.476.6413.431.08-
2021/126.59179.034.7146.7-8.512.081.28-
2021/112.36-24.38-40.2840.1-13.0911.851.31-
2021/103.12-50.85-22.4737.74-10.5413.951.11-
2021/96.3642.2518.5634.62-9.2812.561.05-
2021/84.47158.36-14.3328.26-13.8310.261.28-
2021/71.73-57.37-67.7223.79-13.749.021.46因供應鏈尚未穩定,導致部分訂單延後出貨
2021/64.0625.42-10.0322.06-0.7110.980.85-
2021/53.24-12.2-21.2218.01.6510.890.86-
2021/43.69-7.1-7.6514.768.5610.570.88-
2021/33.9736.02-12.7811.0815.311.080.84-
2021/22.92-30.477.247.1140.5512.00.77-
2021/14.19-14.2779.264.1979.2613.050.71客戶出貨需求
2020/124.8923.6632.251.043.812.880.71-
2020/113.96-1.83-5.5246.151.4913.350.68-
2020/104.03-24.83-0.1242.192.214.610.62-
2020/95.362.7851.3138.162.4615.940.57客戶出貨需求
2020/85.22-2.6536.0232.8-2.6715.090.6-
2020/75.3618.8132.127.58-7.6413.980.65-
2020/64.519.8234.9922.22-13.8912.610.89-
2020/54.112.92-3.6517.71-21.1712.650.89-
2020/43.99-12.26-12.8513.6-25.2711.260.99-
2020/34.5567.26-14.769.61-29.459.610.98-
2020/22.7216.21-11.635.06-38.918.761.07-
2020/12.34-36.77-55.042.34-55.0410.230.92受春節及新冠狀病毒的影響
2019/123.7-11.62-39.949.17-4.240.0N/A-
2019/114.193.77-2.6245.460.610.0N/A-
成長能力-近10年
加權平均股數 YoYEPS YoY本業EPS YoY營收 YoY毛利率(%) YoY營業利益率 YoY稅後淨利率 YoY營業利益 YoY稅前淨利 YoY稅後淨利 YoY
2023 (10)6112.96-6.130-6.48030.31-55.432.33-80.6-14.240-12.300-4.320-4.10-3.730
2022 (9)540.04.13612.074.02068.045.2112.0119.384.514000.03.31386.763.076040.02.87567.442.25603.12
2021 (8)543.850.58-81.93-0.10046.83-8.2110.06-28.80.11-97.410.68-80.630.05-97.70.43-80.090.32-82.12
2020 (7)521.963.2177.352.9589.151.023.8314.1310.744.2553.433.5167.142.1759.562.1650.01.7973.79
2019 (6)51-1.921.81-16.21.5695.049.14-3.6512.76-4.352.7737.812.10-15.321.3632.041.44-20.441.03-18.9
2018 (5)520.02.16-21.740.80-72.1351.044.4413.34-38.532.01-70.742.48-44.521.03-57.611.81-19.911.27-19.62
2017 (4)520.02.76-13.482.8712.9935.318.8521.701.216.87-3.244.47-15.662.435.652.26-8.51.58-8.14
2016 (3)520.03.19-24.942.54-9.9332.4411.6321.44-10.937.10-16.765.30-32.42.3-7.262.47-18.751.72-24.56
2015 (2)5252.944.25-64.072.82-51.3829.06-7.9824.07-12.198.53-38.417.84-39.082.48-43.253.04-37.962.28-43.84
2014 (1)3425.9311.83127.55.80152.1731.5829.3727.41013.85012.8704.37130.04.9152.584.06181.94

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