玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/110.01-1.63-97.670.67-86.850.02N/A客戶暫停拉貨
2024/100.013.97-87.030.67-86.330.02N/A客戶暫停拉貨
2024/90.019.77-97.470.66-86.330.01215.06客戶暫停拉貨
2024/80.00.0-99.140.66-85.820.0451.14客戶暫緩拉貨。8月起合併營收,新增本公司直接投資100%子公司聯德株式會社之營業收入。
2024/70.00.0-100.00.65-83.980.210.83客戶暫緩拉貨
2024/60.0-100.0-100.00.65-80.840.346.38客戶暫緩拉貨
2024/50.243.28-66.510.65-76.770.415.27營收下降,係客戶下修訂單所致
2024/40.1495.15-76.750.45-79.550.346.34營收下降,係客戶下修訂單所致
2024/30.07-45.08-91.290.31-80.60.317.42本月份營收減少,係客戶下修訂單所致
2024/20.1319.4-75.070.24-69.350.514.53因春節年假工作日減少,故產能及出貨均減少
2024/10.11-59.54-57.770.11-57.770.613.78營收下降,係客戶下修訂單所致
2023/120.2716.54-62.535.3931.980.544.32本月營收年減,係客戶下修訂單所致
2023/110.23447.59-68.445.1252.270.484.86本月營收回升,係生產廠區十月長假,遞延出貨所致
2023/100.04-79.73-94.54.8886.070.812.89本月份營收減少,係客戶下修訂單所致
2023/90.21-62.91.384.84161.071.441.69本年營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/80.56-15.5142.564.63181.041.831.33本月營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/70.6711.62253.474.07187.341.861.3本月營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/60.6-0.21229.883.4177.191.81.38本月營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/50.6-0.53224.852.81168.082.021.23本月營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/40.6-26.95171.032.21155.951.951.27本月營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/30.8257.26219.991.61150.731.611.57本月及本年營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致。
2023/20.52102.33200.120.78104.211.51.68本月營收增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2023/10.26-64.1124.010.2624.011.711.47-
2022/120.72-1.8336.284.0818.772.231.12-
2022/110.73-4.61112.213.363.281.711.46本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2022/100.77273.82285.732.63-9.691.212.07本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係出貨量增加所致
2022/90.21-11.24-54.931.85-31.480.633.59原物料短缺延後出貨
2022/80.2323.12-31.731.65-26.720.63.74-
2022/70.194.17-40.611.42-25.820.554.06-
2022/60.18-1.74-44.631.23-22.870.593.7-
2022/50.18-17.01-45.991.05-17.250.663.27-
2022/40.22-13.76-21.540.86-6.640.653.32-
2022/30.2647.49-10.160.64-0.060.643.39-
2022/20.17-16.39170.470.388.10.912.38本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係出貨量增加所致。
2022/10.21-60.56-28.020.21-28.021.082.0-
2021/120.5352.86128.583.444.311.082.57本月營收較去年同期增加,主要係出貨量增加所致。
2021/110.3573.3737.693.256.221.02.75-
2021/100.2-56.32-11.392.913.41.02.77-
2021/90.4634.4421.412.714.691.112.36-
2021/80.347.1-1.842.251.840.982.67-
2021/70.32-2.873.891.912.530.992.67-
2021/60.33-4.1516.421.592.260.952.72-
2021/50.3420.5524.141.27-0.850.912.84-
2021/40.28-1.25-25.830.92-7.710.634.09-
2021/30.29344.11-14.040.643.440.643.93-
2021/20.06-77.75-4.150.3523.790.594.3-
2021/10.2925.2332.390.2932.390.773.26-
2020/120.23-7.92-30.273.29-45.40.713.59-
2020/110.2511.56-63.493.06-46.280.852.98因全球疫情反反覆覆,全球經濟處在不確定性情況下且消費支出減緩,致出貨量與去年度同期相比減少。
2020/100.23-40.15-43.752.81-43.920.952.68-
2020/90.388.68-35.762.59-43.931.032.29-
2020/80.3513.36-40.532.21-45.120.932.53-
2020/70.318.84-47.581.86-45.90.862.74-
2020/60.282.2-44.741.56-45.560.942.52本年營收較去年同期減少,主要係因出貨量減少所致。
2020/50.27-27.97-54.211.28-45.740.992.38因受武漢肺炎疫情影響致全球經濟趨緩,營收較去年同期減少50%以上
2020/40.3814.44-40.291.0-42.830.783.02-
2020/30.33395.18-24.330.62-44.30.623.89-
2020/20.07-69.26-64.20.29-57.390.623.9因武漢肺炎開工延緩致營收較去年同期減少50%以上
2020/10.22-34.04-54.740.22-54.740.0N/A過年期間客戶拉貨減緩所致
2019/120.33-51.79-50.516.03-19.690.0N/A年底客戶拉貨減緩所致
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/10.112023/10.262022/10.212021/10.292020/10.22
2024/20.132023/20.522022/20.172021/20.062020/20.07
2024/30.072023/30.822022/30.262021/30.292020/30.33
2024/40.142023/40.62022/40.222021/40.282020/40.38
2024/50.22023/50.62022/50.182021/50.342020/50.27
2024/60.02023/60.62022/60.182021/60.332020/60.28
2024/70.02023/70.672022/70.192021/70.322020/70.31
2024/80.02023/80.562022/80.232021/80.342020/80.35
2024/90.012023/90.212022/90.212021/90.462020/90.38
2024/100.012023/100.042022/100.772021/100.22020/100.23
2024/110.012023/110.232022/110.732021/110.352020/110.25
N/AN/A2023/120.272022/120.722021/120.532020/120.23
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 1.5%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.090.00.0
24Q2 (19)0.090.00.0
24Q1 (18)0.090.00.0
23Q4 (17)0.090.0-97.51
23Q3 (16)0.090.00.0
23Q2 (15)0.090.0-10.0
23Q1 (14)0.09-97.51-10.0
22Q4 (13)3.613911.113911.11
22Q3 (12)0.09-10.00.0
22Q2 (11)0.10.011.11
22Q1 (10)0.111.110.0
21Q4 (9)0.090.0-10.0
21Q3 (8)0.090.0-18.18
21Q2 (7)0.09-10.00
21Q1 (6)0.10.00
20Q4 (5)0.1-9.090
20Q3 (4)0.1100.0

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