玩股撇步(動畫小學堂)  

  • 大部份公司都有淡旺季, 所以通常是看年增率
  • 如果是成長期(在炒新的成長動能)的公司或景氣從谷底翻揚, 就可以觀察月增率
  • 漲很多的股票要留意營收年增率或月增率大幅減少, 又或者是合約負債已經開始減少
  • 留意短期平均營收向上或向下穿越長期平均營收
  • 觀察累計營收年增率的累計增加或虧損收斂
每月營收 (營收搶先看自結損益)
年/月營收月增率(%)去年同期年增率(%)累計營收累計營收年增率(%)近三月累計營收存貨銷售比自結稅前EPS自結稅前累計EPS備註(年增率變動50%需說明原因)
2024/103.07-9.7537.5325.7333.239.48N/A-
2024/93.413.2337.6222.6632.679.070.23-
2024/83.0112.735.0219.2531.838.170.25-
2024/72.676.6626.0416.2531.257.960.26-
2024/62.5-10.444.8713.5832.337.690.25-
2024/52.7916.337.711.0840.637.540.25-
2024/42.42.0753.528.2941.655.970.32去年同期市場受景氣影響,營收較低,故營收較今年減少超過50%以上。
2024/32.3592.4845.935.8937.325.890.31-
2024/21.22-47.31-12.243.5432.145.760.32-
2024/12.324.3480.162.3280.166.980.27112年一月適逢春節年假,且市場萎縮,故營收較今年減少超過50%以上。
2023/122.22-8.8732.5423.973.716.890.24-
2023/112.449.1941.0621.751.457.140.23-
2023/102.23-9.6821.9419.31-2.016.930.23-
2023/92.4711.0834.0617.08-4.466.810.22-
2023/82.235.21-7.4814.6-8.96.720.22-
2023/72.12-11.24-3.2712.38-9.156.530.23-
2023/62.3817.571.2810.26-10.275.970.24-
2023/52.0329.6711.467.88-13.275.20.28-
2023/41.56-2.9644.325.85-19.464.570.32-
2023/31.6115.74-23.274.29-30.634.290.4-
2023/21.398.15-19.612.68-34.414.360.39-
2023/11.29-23.23-45.31.29-45.34.690.37-
2022/121.68-3.01-28.9523.11-11.825.240.3-
2022/111.73-5.6-29.5521.44-10.135.40.29-
2022/101.83-0.71-10.5419.71-7.96.080.26-
2022/91.84-23.34-18.717.88-7.626.440.27-
2022/82.4110.09.8516.03-6.156.950.25-
2022/72.19-7.06-6.6313.63-8.516.360.27-
2022/62.3529.39-9.2511.44-8.865.250.46-
2022/51.8267.91-14.59.09-8.755.00.49-
2022/41.08-48.41-56.837.27-7.194.910.49因大陸疫情影響,工廠配合政策於4/11以後停工,致營收減少。
2022/32.121.25-3.476.1816.216.180.4-
2022/21.73-26.429.684.0829.826.440.38-
2022/12.35-0.2829.932.3529.937.170.34-
2021/122.36-3.8310.6626.2122.396.860.32-
2021/112.4519.8735.0623.8523.696.770.33-
2021/102.05-9.7642.9121.422.516.510.34-
2021/92.273.5712.3619.3520.686.80.3-
2021/82.19-6.493.5917.0821.887.130.29-
2021/72.34-9.6732.6314.8925.137.060.29-
2021/62.5921.9156.3412.5523.837.230.3本期營收成長係因疫情升溫影響,居家電腦設備需求增加,另大陸疫情趨緩,電動車市場需求增加所致。
2021/52.13-15.23-19.779.9617.466.810.32-
2021/42.5115.36-3.267.8334.426.020.36-
2021/32.1862.921.75.3264.685.320.37109年適逢春節及疫情高峰,造成大陸工廠延後開工及大部份員工封城隔離問題,109年同期營收大幅減少,致與今年營收差異較大。
2021/21.34-26.25145.633.15117.885.280.37109年適逢疫情高峰,大陸工廠延後開工及大部份員工封城隔離問題,109年同期營收大幅減少,致與今年營收差異較大。
2021/11.81-15.07101.121.81101.125.760.34去年同期因適逢春節及疫情爆發時期,故營收相對低點,造成與本期差異較大。
2020/122.1317.363.5421.428.175.380.3-
2020/111.8226.83-8.6619.288.715.270.31-
2020/101.43-29.05-12.0417.4710.95.570.29-
2020/92.02-4.5-0.7716.0313.555.90.23-
2020/82.1119.716.314.0215.965.540.25-
2020/71.776.472.2511.917.866.080.23-
2020/61.66-37.448.5410.1421.096.90.2-
2020/52.652.265.438.4823.897.030.19因疫情誘發宅經濟成長,訂單增加所致。
2020/42.5945.14102.925.8311.184.930.28因疫情影響,出貨延後所致。
2020/31.79228.823.683.23-18.423.230.39-
2020/20.54-39.62-41.091.44-42.613.530.36-
2020/10.9-56.77-43.480.9-43.484.970.26-
2019/122.084.7112.5519.821.410.0N/A-
2019/111.9922.1325.7917.740.240.0N/A-
股價
長短期營收
營收年增率
由營收觀察是否有淡旺季的情況
年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收年/月營收
2024/12.322023/11.292022/12.352021/11.812020/10.9
2024/21.222023/21.392022/21.732021/21.342020/20.54
2024/32.352023/31.612022/32.12021/32.182020/31.79
2024/42.42023/41.562022/41.082021/42.512020/42.59
2024/52.792023/52.032022/51.822021/52.132020/52.65
2024/62.52023/62.382022/62.352021/62.592020/61.66
2024/72.672023/72.122022/72.192021/72.342020/71.77
2024/83.012023/82.232022/82.412021/82.192020/82.11
2024/93.42023/92.472022/91.842021/92.272020/92.02
2024/103.072023/102.232022/101.832021/102.052020/101.43
N/AN/A2023/112.442022/111.732021/112.452020/111.82
N/AN/A2023/122.222022/121.682021/122.362020/122.13
  • 每季的合約負債通常會反應在未來半年到一年後的營收
合約負債-近20季, 最新合約負債佔股本: 13.62%
合約負債 QoQ YoY
24Q3 (20)0.82310.060.78
24Q2 (19)0.2-41.18-25.93
24Q1 (18)0.3454.55112.5
23Q4 (17)0.22-56.86-8.33
23Q3 (16)0.5188.8996.15
23Q2 (15)0.2768.7535.0
23Q1 (14)0.16-33.3333.33
22Q4 (13)0.24-7.6984.62
22Q3 (12)0.2630.062.5
22Q2 (11)0.266.6766.67
22Q1 (10)0.12-7.69140.0
21Q4 (9)0.13-18.7585.71
21Q3 (8)0.1633.33300.0
21Q2 (7)0.12140.0500.0
21Q1 (6)0.05-28.5766.67
20Q4 (5)0.0775.040.0
20Q3 (4)0.04100.00.0
20Q2 (3)0.02-33.330.0
20Q1 (2)0.03-40.00.0
19Q4 (1)0.050.00.0

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